Daily Report

ETF Insights - December 16, 2025

Today's analysis: 14 near entry, 3 near acceleration, 17 near cap. Total 34 signals.

Eric Cerrone

16 Dec 2025 — 33 min read

HARBORSIDE - ETF Insights - December 16, 2025

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

December 16, 2025

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (â‰¥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding

Green Border Best entry opportunity

Yellow Border Monitor for entry

Red Border Future exit/roll alerts

127

ETFs ANALYZED

NEAR ENTRY

NEAR ACCELERATION

NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*

NNOV

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.73%

Index Return: -2.75%

Remaining Cap: 15.98%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 18.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

NDEC

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.37%

Index Return: -1.21%

Remaining Cap: 15.02%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 15.7%

T-Bill: 3.6%

EOCT

288 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.51%

Index Return: -0.79%

Remaining Cap: 13.72%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 17.4%

T-Bill: 3.6%

IOCT

288 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.85%

Index Return: +1.66%

Remaining Cap: 12.07%

Buffer: 15%

Cap Yield: 15.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

BNOV

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.01%

Index Return: -0.47%

Remaining Cap: 16.79%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 19.2%

T-Bill: 3.6%

PNOV

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.27%

Index Return: -0.47%

Remaining Cap: 12.16%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 13.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

BDEC

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.28%

Index Return: -0.66%

Remaining Cap: 16.96%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 17.7%

T-Bill: 3.6%

IDEC

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.38%

Index Return: -0.28%

Remaining Cap: 16.21%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 17.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

KDEC

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.59%

Index Return: +0.46%

Remaining Cap: 16.60%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 17.4%

T-Bill: 3.6%

PDEC

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.09%

Index Return: -0.66%

Remaining Cap: 12.45%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 13.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

🛡 100% Principal Protection

Principal-protected ETFs trading near their starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
100% Buffer ETFs® (Annual/Bi-Annual):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -1% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.5%
100% Buffer ETFs® (6-Month):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -0.50% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.50%
*Watch for negative fund return which allows for extra yield compensating for fund fee*

ZDEK

349 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.13%

Index Return: -0.67%

Remaining Cap: 5.92%

Buffer: 99%

Cap Yield: 6.2%

T-Bill: 3.6%

ZNOV

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.34%

Index Return: -0.47%

Remaining Cap: 5.68%

Buffer: 99%

Cap Yield: 6.5%

T-Bill: 3.6%

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

Dual-direction ETFs positioned for gains in rising OR falling markets

DDFN

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.71%

Index Return: -0.47%

Remaining Cap: 8.43%

Buffer: 13%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 13.39%

Cap Yield: 9.6%

T-Bill: 3.6%

DDTN

319 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.48%

Index Return: -0.47%

Remaining Cap: 12.51%

Buffer: 8%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 8.68%

Cap Yield: 14.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*

NEAR START

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR CAP

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Threshold: 6.33%

QTJL

196 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +9.05% | Index Return: +10.90%

Remaining Cap: 8.32%

Cap Yield: 15.5% | T-Bill: 3.72%

QTJL Detailed Analysis

196 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View QTJL on Innovator ETFs →

+9.05%

FUND RETURN

+10.90%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

8.32%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

15.49%

Cap Yield

3.72%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, QTJL is at +9.05% with 196 days remaining. Entry Score: 7/10 - FAVORABLE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+10.90%) is 4.57% above the 6.33% acceleration threshold. While above threshold, the narrow 4.57% margin means ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 18.99% if the index finishes above the 6.33% threshold. With the index currently 4.57% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 18.99% return. This represents 15.49% annualized yield (4.2x T-Bills). The 6.4-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 6.33% threshold (4.57% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 5.94%

XBJL

196 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +5.66% | Index Return: +9.88%

Remaining Cap: 5.09%

Cap Yield: 9.5% | T-Bill: 3.72%

XBJL Detailed Analysis

196 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XBJL on Innovator ETFs →

+5.66%

FUND RETURN

+9.88%

INDEX RETURN

-6.15%*

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

5.09%*

REMAINING
CAP

11.03%

Buffer Level

9.48%

Cap Yield

3.72%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XBJL is at +5.66% with 196 days remaining. Entry Score: 5/10 - MODERATE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+9.88%) is 3.94% above the 5.94% acceleration threshold. While above threshold, the narrow 3.94% margin means ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 11.88% if the index finishes above the 5.94% threshold. With the index currently 3.94% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 11.88% return. This represents 9.48% annualized yield (2.5x T-Bills). The 6.4-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XBJL combines acceleration with 9% downside buffer protection. The index can fall 12.94% from current levels (3.94% to threshold plus 9% buffer) before experiencing losses.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 5.05%

XTJL

196 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +7.35% | Index Return: +9.88%

Remaining Cap: 6.47%

Cap Yield: 12.0% | T-Bill: 3.72%

XTJL Detailed Analysis

196 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XTJL on Innovator ETFs →

+7.35%

FUND RETURN

+9.88%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

6.47%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

12.05%

Cap Yield

3.72%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XTJL is at +7.35% with 196 days remaining. Entry Score: 6/10 - FAVORABLE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+9.88%) is 4.83% above the 5.05% acceleration threshold. While above threshold, the narrow 4.83% margin means ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 15.15% if the index finishes above the 5.05% threshold. With the index currently 4.83% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 15.15% return. This represents 12.05% annualized yield (3.2x T-Bills). The 6.4-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 5.05% threshold (4.83% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

QTJA

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +18.35%

Index Return: +19.66%

Remaining Cap: 0.13%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 3.2%

T-Bill: 3.9%

XBJA

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.74%

Index Return: +15.84%

Remaining Cap: 0.08%

Buffer: 11%

Cap Yield: 1.9%

T-Bill: 3.9%

XTJA

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.58%

Index Return: +15.84%

Remaining Cap: 0.14%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 3.4%

T-Bill: 3.9%

QTAP

105 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +17.82%

Index Return: +30.46%

Remaining Cap: 2.03%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 7.1%

T-Bill: 3.8%

XBAP

105 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +9.96%

Index Return: +21.36%

Remaining Cap: 1.77%

Buffer: 15%

Cap Yield: 6.2%

T-Bill: 3.8%

XTAP

105 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.33%

Index Return: +21.36%

Remaining Cap: 2.13%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 7.4%

T-Bill: 3.8%

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index exceeded Cap

JAJL

14 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +2.97%

Index Return: +9.88%

Remaining Cap: 0.25%

Buffer: 97%

Cap Yield: 6.5%

T-Bill: 3.9%

AJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.20%

Index Return: +42.83%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 86%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.9%

BJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.56%

Index Return: +15.83%

Remaining Cap: 0.94%

Buffer: 9%

Cap Yield: 22.9%

T-Bill: 3.9%

EJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.13%

Index Return: +26.69%

Remaining Cap: 0.13%

Buffer: 20%

Cap Yield: 3.2%

T-Bill: 3.9%

IJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +19.08%

Index Return: +25.54%

Remaining Cap: 0.12%

Buffer: 15%

Cap Yield: 2.9%

T-Bill: 3.9%

NJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.64%

Index Return: +19.66%

Remaining Cap: 0.41%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 10.0%

T-Bill: 3.9%

PJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.78%

Index Return: +15.83%

Remaining Cap: 0.34%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 8.3%

T-Bill: 3.9%

UJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.62%

Index Return: +15.83%

Remaining Cap: 0.29%

Buffer: 29%

Cap Yield: 7.1%

T-Bill: 3.9%

ZJAN

15 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.55%

Index Return: +15.82%

Remaining Cap: 0.13%

Buffer: 93%

Cap Yield: 3.2%

T-Bill: 3.9%

IFEB

46 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.77%

Index Return: +19.79%

Remaining Cap: 1.06%

Buffer: 15%

Cap Yield: 8.4%

T-Bill: 3.8%

AAPR

105 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.50%

Index Return: +29.79%

Remaining Cap: 1.47%

Buffer: 86%

Cap Yield: 5.1%

T-Bill: 3.8%

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Defined Outcome ETFs® involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Innovator ETFs® Specific Disclosures are available at Innovatoretfs.com

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

OCC Options Risk Disclosure

Options Risk Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" available at theocc.com.

Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

®Â Trademark Notice: The following marks: Accelerated ETFs®, Accelerated Plus ETF®, Accelerated Return ETFs®, Barrier ETF®, Buffer ETFâ„¢, Defined Income ETFâ„¢, Defined Outcome Bond ETF®, Defined Outcome ETFsâ„¢, Defined Protection ETF®, Define Your Future®, Enhanced ETFâ„¢, Floor ETF®, Innovator ETFs®, Leading the Defined Outcome ETF Revolutionâ„¢, Managed Buffer ETFs®, Managed Outcome ETFs®, Step-Upâ„¢, Step-Up ETFs®, 100% Buffer ETFsâ„¢, Dual Directional Buffer ETFsâ„¢ and all related names, logos, product and service names, designs, and slogans are the trademarks of Innovator Capital Management, LLC, its affiliates or licensors.

ETF Insights - December 16, 2025

Eric Cerrone

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

🛡 100% Principal Protection

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

Important Disclosures

Read more

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ETF Insights - January 15, 2026

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

NNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

EOCT Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

IOCT Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

IDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

KDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

🛡 100% Principal Protection

ZDEK Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

ZNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

DDFN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

DDTN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

NEAR THRESHOLD

QTJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XBJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

QTJA Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION