Daily Report

ETF Insights - December 23, 2025

Today's analysis: 3 near entry, 4 near acceleration, 22 near cap. Total 29 signals.

Eric Cerrone

23 Dec 2025 — 28 min read

HARBORSIDE - ETF Insights - December 23, 2025

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

December 23, 2025

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (â‰¥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding

Green Border Best entry opportunity

Yellow Border Monitor for entry

Red Border Future exit/roll alerts

127

ETFs ANALYZED

NEAR ENTRY

NEAR ACCELERATION

NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*

NNOV

312 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.44%

Index Return: -1.11%

Remaining Cap: 14.62%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 17.1%

T-Bill: 3.5%

NDEC

342 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.74%

Index Return: +0.46%

Remaining Cap: 13.75%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 14.7%

T-Bill: 3.5%

PDEC

342 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.93%

Index Return: +0.67%

Remaining Cap: 11.30%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 12.1%

T-Bill: 3.5%

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*

NEAR START

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR CAP

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Threshold: 4.20%

XDQQ

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.40% | Index Return: +3.62%

Remaining Cap: 1.68%

Cap Yield: >50% | T-Bill: 3.60%

XDQQ Detailed Analysis

8 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XDQQ on Innovator ETFs →

+6.40%

FUND RETURN

+3.62%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

1.68%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

76.65%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XDQQ is at +6.40% with 8 days remaining. Entry Score: 4/10 - MODERATE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+3.62%) is 0.58% below the 4.20% acceleration threshold. The index needs to climb 0.58% to reach the threshold for maximum cap. Current probability**: ~30%.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 8.40% if the index finishes above the 4.20% threshold. The index needs to rise 0.58% to reach the threshold. Current probability** of max cap: ~30%. This represents 76.65% annualized yield (21.3x T-Bills). With only 8 days remaining, the outcome will be determined soon.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XDQQ is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. Currently below the threshold, the ETF will track the index return at reset unless the index recovers above 4.20%.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 3.26%

XDSQ

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +5.39% | Index Return: +3.27%

Remaining Cap: 0.88%

Cap Yield: 40.2% | T-Bill: 3.60%

XDSQ Detailed Analysis

8 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XDSQ on Innovator ETFs →

+5.39%

FUND RETURN

+3.27%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

0.88%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

40.15%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XDSQ is at +5.39% with 8 days remaining. Entry Score: 5/10 - MODERATE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+3.27%) is 0.01% above the 3.26% acceleration threshold. While above threshold, the narrow 0.01% margin means ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 6.52% if the index finishes above the 3.26% threshold. With the index currently 0.01% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 6.52% return. This represents 40.15% annualized yield (11.2x T-Bills). With only 8 days remaining, the outcome will be determined soon.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XDSQ is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 3.26% threshold (0.01% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 6.33%

QTJL

189 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.42% | Index Return: +12.77%

Remaining Cap: 6.97%

Cap Yield: 13.5% | T-Bill: 3.60%

QTJL Detailed Analysis

189 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View QTJL on Innovator ETFs →

+10.42%

FUND RETURN

+12.77%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

6.97%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

13.46%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, QTJL is at +10.42% with 189 days remaining. Entry Score: 6/10 - FAVORABLE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+12.77%) is 6.44% above the 6.33% acceleration threshold. The 6.44% buffer above threshold gives ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 18.99% if the index finishes above the 6.33% threshold. With the index currently 6.44% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 18.99% return. This represents 13.46% annualized yield (3.7x T-Bills). The 6.2-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 6.33% threshold (6.44% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 5.05%

XTJL

189 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +8.48% | Index Return: +11.35%

Remaining Cap: 5.35%

Cap Yield: 10.3% | T-Bill: 3.60%

XTJL Detailed Analysis

189 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XTJL on Innovator ETFs →

+8.48%

FUND RETURN

+11.35%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

5.35%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

10.33%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XTJL is at +8.48% with 189 days remaining. Entry Score: 5/10 - MODERATE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+11.35%) is 6.30% above the 5.05% acceleration threshold. The 6.30% buffer above threshold gives ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 15.15% if the index finishes above the 5.05% threshold. With the index currently 6.30% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 15.15% return. This represents 10.33% annualized yield (2.9x T-Bills). The 6.2-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 5.05% threshold (6.30% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

QTJA

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +18.55%

Index Return: +21.69%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XBJA

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.89%

Index Return: +17.39%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 12%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XTJA

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.75%

Index Return: +17.39%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

QTAP

98 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +18.33%

Index Return: +32.67%

Remaining Cap: 1.59%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 5.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XBAP

98 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.37%

Index Return: +22.99%

Remaining Cap: 1.39%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 5.2%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XTAP

98 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +13.93%

Index Return: +22.99%

Remaining Cap: 1.59%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 5.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XBJL

189 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.49%

Index Return: +11.35%

Remaining Cap: 4.27%

Buffer: 11%

Cap Yield: 8.2%

T-Bill: 3.6%

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index exceeded Cap

AJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.27%

Index Return: +44.74%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 86%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

BJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.55%

Index Return: +17.38%

Remaining Cap: 0.06%

Buffer: 9%

Cap Yield: 2.7%

T-Bill: 3.6%

EJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.30%

Index Return: +29.87%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 21%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

IJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +19.27%

Index Return: +27.35%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

JAJL

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +3.11%

Index Return: +11.35%

Remaining Cap: 0.11%

Buffer: 97%

Cap Yield: 5.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

NJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.11%

Index Return: +21.69%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 17%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

PJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +11.15%

Index Return: +17.38%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 17%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

UJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.94%

Index Return: +17.38%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 29%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

ZJAN

8 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.68%

Index Return: +17.38%

Remaining Cap: 0.00%

Buffer: 93%

Cap Yield: 0.0%

T-Bill: 3.6%

IFEB

39 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +15.31%

Index Return: +21.52%

Remaining Cap: 0.59%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 5.5%

T-Bill: 3.6%

NFEB

39 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +12.73%

Index Return: +19.11%

Remaining Cap: 1.04%

Buffer: 17%

Cap Yield: 9.7%

T-Bill: 3.6%

PFEB

39 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +9.90%

Index Return: +14.31%

Remaining Cap: 0.94%

Buffer: 16%

Cap Yield: 8.8%

T-Bill: 3.6%

UFEB

39 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +9.85%

Index Return: +14.31%

Remaining Cap: 0.90%

Buffer: 29%

Cap Yield: 8.4%

T-Bill: 3.6%

ZFEB

39 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.23%

Index Return: +14.31%

Remaining Cap: 0.54%

Buffer: 93%

Cap Yield: 5.1%

T-Bill: 3.6%

AAPR

98 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.91%

Index Return: +31.52%

Remaining Cap: 1.09%

Buffer: 85%

Cap Yield: 4.1%

T-Bill: 3.6%

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Defined Outcome ETFs® involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Innovator ETFs® Specific Disclosures are available at Innovatoretfs.com

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

OCC Options Risk Disclosure

Options Risk Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" available at theocc.com.

Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

®Â Trademark Notice: The following marks: Accelerated ETFs®, Accelerated Plus ETF®, Accelerated Return ETFs®, Barrier ETF®, Buffer ETFâ„¢, Defined Income ETFâ„¢, Defined Outcome Bond ETF®, Defined Outcome ETFsâ„¢, Defined Protection ETF®, Define Your Future®, Enhanced ETFâ„¢, Floor ETF®, Innovator ETFs®, Leading the Defined Outcome ETF Revolutionâ„¢, Managed Buffer ETFs®, Managed Outcome ETFs®, Step-Upâ„¢, Step-Up ETFs®, 100% Buffer ETFsâ„¢, Dual Directional Buffer ETFsâ„¢ and all related names, logos, product and service names, designs, and slogans are the trademarks of Innovator Capital Management, LLC, its affiliates or licensors.

ETF Insights - December 23, 2025

Eric Cerrone

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

Important Disclosures

Read more

ETF Insights - January 16, 2026

ETF Insights - January 15, 2026

ETF Insights - January 15, 2026

ETF Insights - January 15, 2026

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

NNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

NEAR THRESHOLD

XDQQ Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XDSQ Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QTJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

QTJA Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XBJA Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJA Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QTAP Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XBAP Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTAP Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XBJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

AJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

EJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

IJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

JAJL Detailed Analysis