Daily Report

ETF Insights - January 02, 2026

Today's analysis: 32 near entry, 2 near acceleration, 13 near cap. Total 47 signals.

Eric Cerrone

02 Jan 2026 — 44 min read

HARBORSIDE - ETF Insights - January 02, 2026

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

January 02, 2026

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (≥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding

Green Border Best entry opportunity

Yellow Border Monitor for entry

Red Border Future exit/roll alerts

133

ETFs ANALYZED

NEAR ENTRY

NEAR ACCELERATION

NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*

EALT

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.01%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 5.57%

Buffer: 10%

Cap Yield: 23.1%

T-Bill: 3.6%

QBUF

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.01%

Index Return: -0.16%

Remaining Cap: 3.60%

Buffer: 10%

Cap Yield: 14.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

NNOV

302 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.35%

Index Return: -2.64%

Remaining Cap: 15.53%

Buffer: 12%

Cap Yield: 18.8%

T-Bill: 3.5%

NJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.29%

Index Return: -0.30%

Remaining Cap: 14.19%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 14.3%

T-Bill: 3.5%

BALT

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.10%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 1.82%

Buffer: 20%

Cap Yield: 7.5%

T-Bill: 3.6%

IBUF

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.18%

Index Return: +0.85%

Remaining Cap: 2.10%

Buffer: 10%

Cap Yield: 8.7%

T-Bill: 3.6%

RBUF

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.22%

Index Return: +0.64%

Remaining Cap: 3.59%

Buffer: 10%

Cap Yield: 14.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

ZALT

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.08%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 2.76%

Buffer: 10%

Cap Yield: 11.4%

T-Bill: 3.6%

BNOV

302 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.65%

Index Return: +0.03%

Remaining Cap: 16.04%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 19.4%

T-Bill: 3.5%

PNOV

302 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.75%

Index Return: -0.06%

Remaining Cap: 11.61%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 14.0%

T-Bill: 3.5%

BDEC

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.37%

Index Return: -0.16%

Remaining Cap: 16.19%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 17.8%

T-Bill: 3.5%

KDEC

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.36%

Index Return: -0.60%

Remaining Cap: 16.87%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 18.5%

T-Bill: 3.5%

NDEC

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.03%

Index Return: -1.09%

Remaining Cap: 14.56%

Buffer: 13%

Cap Yield: 16.0%

T-Bill: 3.5%

PDEC

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.48%

Index Return: -0.26%

Remaining Cap: 11.81%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 13.0%

T-Bill: 3.5%

BJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.05%

Index Return: +0.05%

Remaining Cap: 15.72%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 15.8%

T-Bill: 3.5%

IJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.40%

Index Return: +0.80%

Remaining Cap: 12.48%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 12.5%

T-Bill: 3.5%

KJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.26%

Index Return: +0.45%

Remaining Cap: 16.23%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 16.3%

T-Bill: 3.5%

PJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.05%

Index Return: -0.04%

Remaining Cap: 11.56%

Buffer: 14%

Cap Yield: 11.6%

T-Bill: 3.5%

🛡 100% Principal Protection

Principal-protected ETFs trading near their starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
100% Buffer ETFs® (Annual/Bi-Annual):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -1% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.5%
100% Buffer ETFs® (6-Month):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -0.50% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.50%
*Watch for negative fund return which allows for extra yield compensating for fund fee*

JAJL

179 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.00%

Index Return: -0.11%

Remaining Cap: 2.90%

Buffer: 100%

Cap Yield: 5.9%

T-Bill: 3.6%

ZJAN

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.10%

Index Return: -0.11%

Remaining Cap: 5.65%

Buffer: 99%

Cap Yield: 5.7%

T-Bill: 3.5%

AJAN

728 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.20%

Index Return: -0.11%

Remaining Cap: 11.49%

Buffer: 98%

Cap Yield: 5.8%

T-Bill: 3.5%

ZDEK

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.42%

Index Return: -0.32%

Remaining Cap: 5.61%

Buffer: 99%

Cap Yield: 6.2%

T-Bill: 3.5%

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

Dual-direction ETFs positioned for gains in rising OR falling markets

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Dual Directional Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Dual Directional Buffer ETFs®:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Dual Directional Buffer ETFs® profit from market moves in EITHER direction*

DDNQ

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.20%

Index Return: -0.30%

Remaining Cap: 4.28%

Buffer: 4%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 4.59%

Cap Yield: 17.8%

T-Bill: 3.6%

DDFD

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.79%

Index Return: -0.18%

Remaining Cap: 7.94%

Buffer: 13%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 13.31%

Cap Yield: 8.7%

T-Bill: 3.5%

DDTD

332 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.76%

Index Return: -0.18%

Remaining Cap: 12.04%

Buffer: 8%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 8.37%

Cap Yield: 13.2%

T-Bill: 3.5%

DDFJ

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.21%

Index Return: -0.05%

Remaining Cap: 7.94%

Buffer: 14%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 13.96%

Cap Yield: 8.0%

T-Bill: 3.5%

DDTJ

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +0.53%

Index Return: -0.05%

Remaining Cap: 11.41%

Buffer: 9%

Remaining Inverse Cap: 8.63%

Cap Yield: 11.5%

T-Bill: 3.5%

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*

NEAR START

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR CAP

NEAR STARTING POINT

ETFs close to starting level with accelerated upside potential

XDQQ

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.31%

Index Return: -0.16%

Remaining Cap: 8.23%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 34.1%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XDSQ

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.05%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 6.10%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 25.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

QTJA

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.19%

Index Return: -0.16%

Remaining Cap: 18.78%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 18.9%

T-Bill: 3.5%

XBJA

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.12%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 11.28%

Buffer: 8%

Cap Yield: 11.3%

T-Bill: 3.5%

XTJA

363 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: -0.16%

Index Return: +0.06%

Remaining Cap: 14.76%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 14.8%

T-Bill: 3.5%

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Threshold: 6.33%

QTJL

179 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +9.77% | Index Return: +11.18%

Remaining Cap: 7.61%

Cap Yield: 15.5% | T-Bill: 3.60%

QTJL Detailed Analysis

179 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View QTJL on Innovator ETFs â†’

+9.77%

FUND RETURN

+11.18%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

7.61%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

15.52%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, QTJL is at +9.77% with 179 days remaining. Entry Score: 7/10 - FAVORABLE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+11.18%) is 4.85% above the 6.33% acceleration threshold. While above threshold, the narrow 4.85% margin means ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 18.99% if the index finishes above the 6.33% threshold. With the index currently 4.85% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 18.99% return. This represents 15.52% annualized yield (4.3x T-Bills). The 5.9-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 6.33% threshold (4.85% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

Threshold: 5.05%

XTJL

179 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +8.11% | Index Return: +10.44%

Remaining Cap: 5.72%

Cap Yield: 11.7% | T-Bill: 3.60%

XTJL Detailed Analysis

179 Days Remaining

Until Outcome Period Reset

View XTJL on Innovator ETFs â†’

+8.11%

FUND RETURN

+10.44%

INDEX RETURN

NONE

DOWNSIDE
BEFORE BUFFER

5.72%*

REMAINING
CAP

0.00%

Buffer Level

11.66%

Cap Yield

3.60%

T-Bill Rate

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

As of today, XTJL is at +8.11% with 179 days remaining. Entry Score: 6/10 - FAVORABLE RISK/REWARD. The underlying index (+10.44%) is 5.39% above the 5.05% acceleration threshold. The 5.39% buffer above threshold gives ~35% probability** of max cap.

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

This accelerated ETF offers a maximum cap of 15.15% if the index finishes above the 5.05% threshold. With the index currently 5.39% above threshold, there's ~35% probability** of achieving the full 15.15% return. This represents 11.66% annualized yield (3.2x T-Bills). The 5.9-month timeframe provides opportunity for market movement.

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

XTJL is an accelerated ETF without downside buffer protection. If the index falls below the 5.05% threshold (5.39% from current), the ETF participates 1 to 1 on the downside.

*Note: All values shown are after-fee (net) values as reported by the fund. The remaining cap and downside values reflect the actual position after accounting for management expenses.

** Based on calculations from current implied volatility.

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

QTAP

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +18.40%

Index Return: +30.79%

Remaining Cap: 1.53%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 6.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XBAP

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +10.50%

Index Return: +21.98%

Remaining Cap: 1.27%

Buffer: 15%

Cap Yield: 5.3%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XTAP

88 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +14.05%

Index Return: +21.98%

Remaining Cap: 1.49%

Buffer: 0%

Cap Yield: 6.2%

T-Bill: 3.6%

XBJL

179 Days Until Reset

Fund Return: +6.31%

Index Return: +10.43%

Remaining Cap: 4.44%

Buffer: 11%

Cap Yield: 9.1%

T-Bill: 3.6%

⚠ Approaching Cap - Index Is Below Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index has not reached Cap

*Limited upside remaining - evaluate for rolling opportunities*

ETF Insights - January 02, 2026

Eric Cerrone

Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

🛡 100% Principal Protection

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

NEAR STARTING POINT

NEAR THRESHOLD

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

⚠ Approaching Cap - Index Is Below Cap

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

Important Disclosures

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Defined Outcome ETF® Insights

Understanding Key Metrics

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

EALT Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

QBUF Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BALT Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

IBUF Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

RBUF Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

ZALT Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PNOV Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

KDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

NDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PDEC Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

BJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

IJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

KJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

PJAN Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION

🛡 100% Principal Protection

JAJL Detailed Analysis

📋 POSITION SNAPSHOT

📈 UPSIDE SCENARIO

🛡 DOWNSIDE PROTECTION