Daily Report

ETF Insights - January 03, 2026

Today's analysis: 32 near entry, 2 near acceleration, 13 near cap. Total 47 signals.

Eric Cerrone

— 45 min read
HARBORSIDE - Buffered ETF Insights - January 03, 2026
Harborside Capital
HARBORSIDE
CAPITAL

Buffered ETF Insights

Independent Analysis • Not Affiliated with Innovator ETFs or Goldman Sachs

January 03, 2026

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (≥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding
Green Border Best entry opportunity
Yellow Border Monitor for entry
Red Border Future exit/roll alerts
133
ETFs ANALYZED
32
NEAR ENTRY
2
NEAR ACCELERATION
13
NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*
BALT
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.04%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 1.88%
|
Buffer: 20%
Cap Yield: 7.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
QBUF
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.09%
|
Index Return: -0.19%
Remaining Cap: 3.69%
|
Buffer: 10%
Cap Yield: 15.3%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
NJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.55%
|
Index Return: -0.19%
Remaining Cap: 14.49%
|
Buffer: 15%
Cap Yield: 14.6%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
EALT
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.10%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 5.48%
|
Buffer: 10%
Cap Yield: 22.7%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
IBUF
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.12%
|
Index Return: +1.05%
Remaining Cap: 2.15%
|
Buffer: 11%
Cap Yield: 8.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
RBUF
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.30%
|
Index Return: +1.06%
Remaining Cap: 3.51%
|
Buffer: 10%
Cap Yield: 14.6%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
ZALT
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.07%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 2.77%
|
Buffer: 10%
Cap Yield: 11.5%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
BNOV
302 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.78%
|
Index Return: +0.16%
Remaining Cap: 15.89%
|
Buffer: 8%
Cap Yield: 19.2%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
NNOV
302 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.27%
|
Index Return: -2.54%
Remaining Cap: 15.44%
|
Buffer: 12%
Cap Yield: 18.7%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
PNOV
302 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.95%
|
Index Return: +0.16%
Remaining Cap: 11.39%
|
Buffer: 13%
Cap Yield: 13.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
BDEC
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.50%
|
Index Return: -0.03%
Remaining Cap: 16.05%
|
Buffer: 8%
Cap Yield: 17.6%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
NDEC
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.14%
|
Index Return: -0.99%
Remaining Cap: 14.44%
|
Buffer: 13%
Cap Yield: 15.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
PDEC
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.62%
|
Index Return: -0.03%
Remaining Cap: 11.65%
|
Buffer: 14%
Cap Yield: 12.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
BJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.01%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 15.66%
|
Buffer: 8%
Cap Yield: 15.7%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
IJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.61%
|
Index Return: +1.05%
Remaining Cap: 12.24%
|
Buffer: 14%
Cap Yield: 12.3%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
KJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.60%
|
Index Return: +1.06%
Remaining Cap: 15.84%
|
Buffer: 14%
Cap Yield: 15.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
PJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.00%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 11.51%
|
Buffer: 14%
Cap Yield: 11.6%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%

🛡 100% Principal Protection

Principal-protected ETFs trading near their starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
100% Downside Protection ETFs (Annual/Bi-Annual):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -1% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.5%
100% Downside Protection ETFs (6-Month):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -0.50% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.50%
*Watch for negative fund return which allows for extra yield compensating for fund fee*
JAJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.07%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 2.84%
|
Buffer: 100%
Cap Yield: 5.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
ZJAN
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.00%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 5.76%
|
Buffer: 99%
Cap Yield: 5.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
AJAN
728 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.21%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 11.46%
|
Buffer: 98%
Cap Yield: 5.7%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
ZDEK
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.46%
|
Index Return: -0.04%
Remaining Cap: 5.57%
|
Buffer: 99%
Cap Yield: 6.1%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

Dual-direction ETFs positioned for gains in rising OR falling markets

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Dual directional buffered ETFs profit from market moves in EITHER direction*
DDNQ
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.03%
|
Index Return: -0.19%
Remaining Cap: 4.53%
|
Buffer: 5%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 4.84%
Cap Yield: 18.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
DDSQ
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.17%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 2.96%
|
Buffer: 5%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 4.62%
Cap Yield: 12.3%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
DDFD
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.79%
|
Index Return: -0.04%
Remaining Cap: 7.94%
|
Buffer: 13%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 13.31%
Cap Yield: 8.7%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
DDTD
332 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.74%
|
Index Return: -0.04%
Remaining Cap: 12.07%
|
Buffer: 8%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 8.40%
Cap Yield: 13.3%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
DDFJ
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.01%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 8.16%
|
Buffer: 14%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 14.20%
Cap Yield: 8.2%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
DDTJ
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.03%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 11.97%
|
Buffer: 9%
Remaining Inverse Cap: 9.17%
Cap Yield: 12.0%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*
5
NEAR START
2
NEAR THRESHOLD
4
NEAR CAP

NEAR STARTING POINT

ETFs close to starting level with accelerated upside potential

XDQQ
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.24%
|
Index Return: -0.19%
Remaining Cap: 8.14%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 33.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
XDSQ
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.15%
|
Index Return: +0.18%
Remaining Cap: 5.89%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 24.4%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
QTJA
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: -0.23%
|
Index Return: -0.19%
Remaining Cap: 18.83%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 18.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
XBJA
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.11%
|
Index Return: +0.19%
Remaining Cap: 11.03%
|
Buffer: 8%
Cap Yield: 11.1%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%
XTJA
363 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +0.19%
|
Index Return: +0.19%
Remaining Cap: 14.34%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 14.4%
|
T-Bill: 3.5%

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Threshold: 6.33%
QTJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +9.88%  |  Index Return: +11.14%
Remaining Cap: 7.49%
Cap Yield: 15.3%  |  T-Bill: 3.60%
Threshold: 5.05%
XTJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +8.36%  |  Index Return: +10.58%
Remaining Cap: 5.47%
Cap Yield: 11.2%  |  T-Bill: 3.60%

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

QTAP
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +18.44%
|
Index Return: +30.75%
Remaining Cap: 1.49%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 6.2%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
XBAP
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +10.56%
|
Index Return: +22.13%
Remaining Cap: 1.21%
|
Buffer: 15%
Cap Yield: 5.0%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
XTAP
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +14.11%
|
Index Return: +22.13%
Remaining Cap: 1.44%
|
Buffer: 0%
Cap Yield: 6.0%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
XBJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +6.43%
|
Index Return: +10.58%
Remaining Cap: 4.33%
|
Buffer: 11%
Cap Yield: 8.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%

⚠ Approaching Cap - Index Is Below Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index has not reached Cap

*Limited upside remaining - evaluate for rolling opportunities*
BFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +12.08%
|
Index Return: +13.52%
Remaining Cap: 1.98%
|
Buffer: 8%
Cap Yield: 24.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index exceeded Cap

*Maximum return achieved - consider exit timing and roll strategies*
IFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +15.60%
|
Index Return: +22.46%
Remaining Cap: 0.33%
|
Buffer: 16%
Cap Yield: 4.2%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
NFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +12.61%
|
Index Return: +17.39%
Remaining Cap: 1.14%
|
Buffer: 16%
Cap Yield: 14.3%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
PFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +9.97%
|
Index Return: +13.52%
Remaining Cap: 0.87%
|
Buffer: 15%
Cap Yield: 10.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
UFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +9.93%
|
Index Return: +13.52%
Remaining Cap: 0.83%
|
Buffer: 28%
Cap Yield: 10.4%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
ZFEB
29 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +6.38%
|
Index Return: +13.51%
Remaining Cap: 0.39%
|
Buffer: 93%
Cap Yield: 4.9%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
IMAR
57 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +13.75%
|
Index Return: +18.95%
Remaining Cap: 1.22%
|
Buffer: 16%
Cap Yield: 7.8%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
AAPR
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +15.04%
|
Index Return: +30.61%
Remaining Cap: 0.98%
|
Buffer: 85%
Cap Yield: 4.1%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%
EAPR
88 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +12.44%
|
Index Return: +28.70%
Remaining Cap: 1.10%
|
Buffer: 22%
Cap Yield: 4.6%
|
T-Bill: 3.6%

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Buffered ETFs involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

† Data Source & Independence Notice: Data derived from publicly available ETF information and exchange prices. All calculations, analysis, and commentary are independently produced by Harborside Capital. This report is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Innovator ETFs, Innovator Capital Management, Goldman Sachs, or any ETF issuer. For official fund data, visit innovatoretfs.com.

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

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Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

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© 2026 Harborside Capital. This report and its analysis are the independent work product of Harborside Capital. Use of trademarked terms is for identification purposes only and does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by trademark owners.

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