Daily Report

ETF Insights - January 05, 2026

Today's analysis: 32 near entry, 2 near acceleration, 13 near cap. Total 47 signals.

Eric Cerrone

— 22 min read
HARBORSIDE - Buffered ETF Insights - January 05, 2026
Harborside Capital
HARBORSIDE
CAPITAL

Buffered ETF Insights

Independent Analysis • Not Affiliated with Innovator ETFs or Goldman Sachs

January 05, 2026

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (≥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding
Green Border Best entry opportunity
Yellow Border Monitor for entry
Red Border Future exit/roll alerts
133
ETFs ANALYZED
32
NEAR ENTRY
2
NEAR ACCELERATION
13
NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*
BALT   SPY   20% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
QBUF   QQQ   10% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
NJAN   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 363 Days Until Reset
EALT   SPY   0% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
IBUF   EFA   10% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
RBUF   IWM   10% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
ZALT   SPY   10% Buffer Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
BNOV   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 302 Days Until Reset
NNOV   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 302 Days Until Reset
PNOV   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 302 Days Until Reset
BDEC   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 332 Days Until Reset
NDEC   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 332 Days Until Reset
PDEC   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 332 Days Until Reset
BJAN   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 363 Days Until Reset
IJAN   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 363 Days Until Reset
KJAN   IWM   15% Buffer Annual 363 Days Until Reset
PJAN   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 363 Days Until Reset

🛡 100% Principal Protection

Principal-protected ETFs trading near their starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
100% Downside Protection ETFs (Annual/Bi-Annual):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -1% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.5%
100% Downside Protection ETFs (6-Month):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -0.50% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.50%
*Watch for negative fund return which allows for extra yield compensating for fund fee*
JAJL   SPY   100% Protection 6-Month 179 Days Until Reset
ZJAN   SPY   100% Protection Annual 363 Days Until Reset
AJAN   SPY   100% Protection 2-Year 728 Days Until Reset
ZDEK   SPY   100% Protection Annual 332 Days Until Reset

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

Dual-direction ETFs positioned for gains in rising OR falling markets

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Dual directional buffered ETFs profit from market moves in EITHER direction*
DDNQ   QQQ   Dual Direction Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
DDSQ   SPY   Dual Direction Quarterly 88 Days Until Reset
DDFD   SPY   Dual Direction Annual 332 Days Until Reset
DDTD   SPY   Dual Direction Annual 332 Days Until Reset
DDFJ   SPY   Dual Direction Annual 363 Days Until Reset
DDTJ   SPY   Dual Direction Annual 363 Days Until Reset

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*
5
NEAR START
2
NEAR THRESHOLD
4
NEAR CAP

NEAR STARTING POINT

ETFs close to starting level with accelerated upside potential

XDQQ   QQQ   2x Accelerated 88 Days Until Reset
XDSQ   SPY   2x Accelerated 88 Days Until Reset
QTJA   QQQ   3x Accelerated 363 Days Until Reset
XBJA   SPY   2x Accelerated 363 Days Until Reset
XTJA   SPY   2x Accelerated 363 Days Until Reset

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Threshold: 6.33%
QTJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +9.88%  |  Index Return: +11.14%
Remaining Cap: 7.49%
Cap Yield: 15.3%  |  T-Bill: 3.60%
Threshold: 5.05%
XTJL
179 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: +8.36%  |  Index Return: +10.58%
Remaining Cap: 5.47%
Cap Yield: 11.2%  |  T-Bill: 3.60%

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

QTAP   QQQ   3x Accelerated 88 Days Until Reset
XBAP   SPY   2x Accelerated 88 Days Until Reset
XTAP   SPY   2x Accelerated 88 Days Until Reset
XBJL   SPY   2x Accelerated 179 Days Until Reset

⚠ Approaching Cap - Index Is Below Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index has not reached Cap

*Limited upside remaining - evaluate for rolling opportunities*
BFEB   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 29 Days Until Reset

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index exceeded Cap

*Maximum return achieved - consider exit timing and roll strategies*
IFEB   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 29 Days Until Reset
NFEB   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 29 Days Until Reset
PFEB   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 29 Days Until Reset
UFEB   SPY   30% Ultra Buffer 29 Days Until Reset
ZFEB   SPY   100% Protection Annual 29 Days Until Reset
IMAR   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 57 Days Until Reset
AAPR   SPY   100% Protection 2-Year 88 Days Until Reset
EAPR   EEM   15% Buffer Annual 88 Days Until Reset

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Buffered ETFs involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

† Data Source & Independence Notice: Data derived from publicly available ETF information and exchange prices. All calculations, analysis, and commentary are independently produced by Harborside Capital. This report is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Innovator ETFs, Innovator Capital Management, Goldman Sachs, or any ETF issuer. For official fund data, visit innovatoretfs.com.

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

Options Risk Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" available at theocc.com.

Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

® Trademark Notice: The following are trademarks of Innovator Capital Management, LLC, its affiliates or licensors: Accelerated ETFs®, Accelerated Plus ETF®, Accelerated Return ETFs®, Barrier ETF®, Buffer ETF™, Defined Income ETF™, Defined Outcome Bond ETF®, Defined Outcome ETFs®, Defined Protection ETF®, Define Your Future®, Enhanced ETF™, Floor ETF®, Innovator ETFs®, Leading the Defined Outcome ETF Revolution™, Managed Buffer ETFs®, Managed Outcome ETFs®, Step-Up™, Step-Up ETFs®, 100% Buffer ETFs®, and Dual Directional Buffer ETFs®. All related names, logos, product and service names, designs, and slogans are the property of their respective owners.

© 2026 Harborside Capital. This report and its analysis are the independent work product of Harborside Capital. Use of trademarked terms is for identification purposes only and does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by trademark owners.

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