Daily Report

ETF Insights - January 09, 2026

Today's analysis: 7 near entry, 3 near acceleration, 24 near cap. Total 34 signals.

Eric Cerrone

— 19 min read
HARBORSIDE - Buffered ETF Insights - January 09, 2026
Harborside Capital
HARBORSIDE
CAPITAL

Buffered ETF Insights

Independent Analysis • Not Affiliated with Innovator ETFs or Goldman Sachs

January 09, 2026

Understanding Key Metrics

Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (≥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility.

Priority Color Coding
Green Border Best entry opportunity
Yellow Border Monitor for entry
Red Border Future exit/roll alerts
133
ETFs ANALYZED
7
NEAR ENTRY
3
NEAR ACCELERATION
24
NEAR CAP

🎯 Near Starting Point - Prime Entry Opportunities

ETFs trading within optimal entry range centered around fee-adjusted starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Ranges centered around fee breakeven for optimal entry timing*
Days:
Remaining Cap:
NNOV   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 14.01% Cap 295 Days Until Reset
NJAN   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 12.79% Cap 356 Days Until Reset
PJAN   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 10.56% Cap 356 Days Until Reset

🛡 100% Principal Protection

Principal-protected ETFs trading near their starting levels

Qualification Criteria:
100% Downside Protection ETFs (Annual/Bi-Annual):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -1% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.5%
100% Downside Protection ETFs (6-Month):
  • Optimal: Fund Return -0.50% to +0.25%
  • Good: Fund Return between +0.26% and +0.50%
*Watch for negative fund return which allows for extra yield compensating for fund fee*
Days:
Remaining Cap:
JAJL   SPY   100% Protection 6-Month 2.58% Cap 172 Days Until Reset
ZJAN   SPY   100% Protection Annual 5.36% Cap 356 Days Until Reset
AJAN   SPY   100% Protection 2-Year 11.14% Cap 721 Days Until Reset

🔄 Dual Direction Entry - Profit From Either Direction

Dual-direction ETFs positioned for gains in rising OR falling markets

Qualification Criteria:
Annual Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -1.29% and -0.29%
    (Centered around -0.79% fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -2.0% to -1.30% or -0.28% to +1.0%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
Quarterly Dual Directional Buffered ETFs:
  • Optimal: Fund Return between -0.45% and +0.05%
    (Centered around -0.20% quarterly fee breakeven point)
  • Good: Fund Return between -0.70% to -0.46% or +0.06% to +0.30%
    (Extended downside and upside ranges)
*Dual directional buffered ETFs profit from market moves in EITHER direction*
Days:
Remaining Cap:
DDFJ   SPY   Dual Direction Annual 7.34% Cap 356 Days Until Reset

🚀 Acceleration Zone - Enhanced Returns Available

ETFs with accelerated participation (2x or 3x) in positive index moves

Qualification Criteria:
Near Starting Point (Entry Signal):
• Fund Return between -1.5% and +0.5%
• Provides 2x or 3x acceleration on positive moves
Near Threshold (Monitor Signal):
• Index from (threshold - 1%) up to 85% of maximum cap
• Enhanced returns active - approaching cap trigger
Near Cap (Exit Signal):
• Index ≥ 85% of maximum cap
• Maximum cap likely to be achieved at reset
*Leveraged participation with no downside buffer protection*
0
NEAR START
3
NEAR THRESHOLD
4
NEAR CAP

NEAR THRESHOLD

ETFs within 1% of acceleration threshold - enhanced returns activating

Days:
Remaining Cap:
QTJL   QQQ   3x Accelerated 6.33% Cap 172 Days Until Reset
XTJL   SPY   2x Accelerated 4.74% Cap 172 Days Until Reset
XTOC   SPY   2x Accelerated 9.75% Cap 264 Days Until Reset

NEAR MAXIMUM CAP

ETFs approaching maximum cap - consider profit-taking strategies

Days:
Remaining Cap:
QTAP   QQQ   3x Accelerated 1.11% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
XBAP   SPY   2x Accelerated 1.00% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
XTAP   SPY   2x Accelerated 1.17% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
XBJL   SPY   2x Accelerated 3.78% Cap 172 Days Until Reset

📈 Approaching Cap - Index Is Above Cap

ETF is Nearing the Max Return but Index exceeded Cap

*Maximum return achieved - consider exit timing and roll strategies*
Days:
Remaining Cap:
BFEB   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 0.94% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
IFEB   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 0.11% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
NFEB   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 0.43% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
PFEB   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 0.37% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
UFEB   SPY   30% Ultra Buffer 0.32% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
ZFEB   SPY   100% Protection Annual 0.19% Cap 22 Days Until Reset
IMAR   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 0.78% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
KMAR   IWM   15% Buffer Annual 1.58% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
NMAR   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 1.00% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
PMAR   SPY   15% Buffer Annual 0.95% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
UMAR   SPY   30% Ultra Buffer 0.91% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
ZMAR   SPY   100% Protection Annual 0.62% Cap 50 Days Until Reset
AAPR   SPY   100% Protection 2-Year 0.76% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
BAPR   SPY   9% Buffer Annual 1.45% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
EAPR   EEM   15% Buffer Annual 0.90% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
IAPR   EFA   15% Buffer Annual 1.45% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
KAPR   IWM   15% Buffer Annual 1.26% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
NAPR   QQQ   15% Buffer Annual 1.16% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
UAPR   SPY   30% Ultra Buffer 1.11% Cap 81 Days Until Reset
KMAY   IWM   15% Buffer Annual 1.60% Cap 111 Days Until Reset

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Buffered ETFs involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

† Data Source & Independence Notice: Data derived from publicly available ETF information and exchange prices. All calculations, analysis, and commentary are independently produced by Harborside Capital. This report is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Innovator ETFs, Innovator Capital Management, Goldman Sachs, or any ETF issuer. For official fund data, visit innovatoretfs.com.

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

Options Risk Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" available at theocc.com.

Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

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© 2026 Harborside Capital. This report and its analysis are the independent work product of Harborside Capital. Use of trademarked terms is for identification purposes only and does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by trademark owners.

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