Daily Report V2

ETF Insights V2 - September 20, 2025

Today's analysis with fee-adjusted entry rules: 8 near entry opportunities, 37 approaching cap. Total 45 signals identified. Full interactive report with detailed analysis for each ETF.

Eric Cerrone

— 55 min read
HARBORSIDE - ETF Insights V2 - September 20, 2025
Harborside Capital
Defined Outcome ETF Insights V2
September 20, 2025 - Fee-Adjusted Entry Rules

Understanding Key Metrics & Entry Rules

📊 NEW: Fee-Adjusted Entry Rules

Entry ranges are now calculated relative to each ETF's after-fee starting point

🟢 GREEN - Best Entry
Standard Buffer ETFs (Annual):
Fee-adjusted start ± 1.0%
Example: 0.79% fee = -1.79% to +0.21%

Standard Buffer ETFs (Quarterly):
Prorated fee ± 0.25%

Ultra Buffer (30%):
Fee-adjusted start -6% to -4%
Example: 0.79% fee = -6.79% to -4.79%
🟡 YELLOW - Monitor Entry
Standard Buffer ETFs (Annual):
Fee-adjusted start ± 1.01% to ± 2.0%
Example: 0.79% fee = -2.79% to -1.80% OR +0.22% to +1.21%

Ultra Buffer (30%):
Fee-adjusted start -8% to -6.8% OR -4.78% to -3.3%
Example: 0.79% fee = -8.79% to -6.80% OR -4.78% to -3.29%
Cap Yield (Annualized)

The remaining upside potential converted to an annual percentage, for comparison to TBILLs.

Approaching Cap - Index Below

Limited upside potential remaining and as ETF gets closer to reset it will be very sensitive to downside moves. Compare to TBILLs and other ETFs for possible roll.

Approaching Cap - Index Above

ETFs where the cap has been reached (≥90%) and the index is above the cap level, providing a downside cushion to after fee cap. Check TBILL rate, probability and Cap Yield to manage risk.

Probability

The statistical likelihood the index will be above the ETF's cap at expiry. Calculated using Implied Volatility from the Underlying ETF's, their location and time left.

Priority Color Coding
Green Border
Best entry opportunity - ETF within fee-adjusted optimal range
Yellow Border
Monitor for entry - ETF within fee-adjusted watch range OR cap reached with index above
Red Border
Future exit/roll alerts - ETF near maximum cap
118
ETFs Analyzed
8
Near Entry
37
Near Cap
ETFs With No Alerts & Expiring Within 30 Days
IOCT (11d)
KOCT (11d)
 
APPROACHING CAP
- INDEX BELOW CAP -
‼️ APOC (100% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 3.21%  |  Index Return: 18.65%
Remaining Cap: 0.13%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -3.49%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 4.31%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ BALT (20% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 2.07%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
Remaining Cap: 0.17%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -2.18%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 5.64%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ BOCT (9% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.50%  |  Index Return: 15.67%
Remaining Cap: 0.38%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.66%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 12.61%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ EALT (0% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 5.56%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
Remaining Cap: 0.41%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -10.16%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 13.60%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ EBUF (10% Buffer EEM)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 2.28%  |  Index Return: 9.89%
Remaining Cap: 0.15%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -2.42%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 4.98%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ EOCT (15% Buffer EEM)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.74%  |  Index Return: 15.59%
Remaining Cap: 0.93%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.95%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 30.86%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ IBUF (10% Buffer EFA)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 2.29%  |  Index Return: 4.04%
Remaining Cap: 0.39%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -2.43%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 12.94%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ NOCT (15% Buffer QQQ)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.56%  |  Index Return: 22.80%
Remaining Cap: 0.05%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.71%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 1.66%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ POCT (15% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.41%  |  Index Return: 15.68%
Remaining Cap: 0.09%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -10.20%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 2.99%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ QBUF (10% Buffer QQQ)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 3.82%  |  Index Return: 8.65%
Remaining Cap: 0.19%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -3.85%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 6.30%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ QTOC (0% Buffer QQQ)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 18.85%  |  Index Return: 22.80%
Remaining Cap: 0.00%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -16.63%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ RBUF (10% Buffer IWM)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 4.72%  |  Index Return: 12.60%
Remaining Cap: 0.11%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -4.68%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 3.65%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ UOCT (30% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.02%  |  Index Return: 15.68%
Remaining Cap: 0.07%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -14.42%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 2.32%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ XBOC (9% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.40%  |  Index Return: 15.68%
Remaining Cap: 0.00%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -10.19%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ XDQQ (0% Buffer QQQ)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 7.95%  |  Index Return: 8.65%
Remaining Cap: 0.35%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -7.54%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 11.61%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ XDSQ (0% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 6.37%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
Remaining Cap: 0.25%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -6.17%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 8.30%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ XTOC (0% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.38%  |  Index Return: 15.68%
Remaining Cap: 0.00%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.57%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ ZALT (10% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 3.22%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
Remaining Cap: 0.18%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -3.27%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 5.97%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ ZOCT (100% Buffer SPY)     11 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 5.92%  |  Index Return: 15.67%
Remaining Cap: 0.03%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -6.36%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 1.00%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ BNOV (9% Buffer SPY)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.25%  |  Index Return: 16.71%
Remaining Cap: 1.64%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.40%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 14.25%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ INOV (15% Buffer EFA)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.18%  |  Index Return: 17.39%
Remaining Cap: 1.35%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.40%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 11.73%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ NNOV (15% Buffer QQQ)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 13.94%  |  Index Return: 23.87%
Remaining Cap: 0.96%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.93%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 8.34%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ PNOV (15% Buffer SPY)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.51%  |  Index Return: 16.72%
Remaining Cap: 1.06%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -10.21%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 9.21%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ UNOV (30% Buffer SPY)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 9.95%  |  Index Return: 16.72%
Remaining Cap: 0.95%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -14.30%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 1%
Cap Yield: 8.26%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ ZNOV (100% Buffer SPY)     42 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 6.12%  |  Index Return: 16.71%
Remaining Cap: 0.59%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -6.47%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 3%
Cap Yield: 5.13%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ IDEC (15% Buffer EFA)     72 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 14.40%  |  Index Return: 17.77%
Remaining Cap: 2.75%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -13.27%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 3%
Cap Yield: 13.94%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ NDEC (15% Buffer QQQ)     72 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 11.17%  |  Index Return: 17.58%
Remaining Cap: 2.40%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -10.69%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 5%
Cap Yield: 12.17%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ PDEC (15% Buffer SPY)     72 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 7.98%  |  Index Return: 10.15%
Remaining Cap: 2.99%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -8.03%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 2%
Cap Yield: 15.16%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ ZDEK (100% Buffer SPY)     72 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 5.43%  |  Index Return: 10.14%
Remaining Cap: 1.59%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -5.79%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 9%
Cap Yield: 8.06%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ JAJL (100% Buffer SPY)     102 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 1.64%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
Remaining Cap: 1.79%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -1.79%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 13%
Cap Yield: 6.41%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ AJAN (100% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 12.93%  |  Index Return: 39.64%
Remaining Cap: 1.18%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.82%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 13%
Cap Yield: 4.18%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ EJAN (15% Buffer EEM)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 12.55%  |  Index Return: 26.76%
Remaining Cap: 1.80%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -11.79%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 11%
Cap Yield: 6.38%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ IJAN (15% Buffer EFA)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 16.10%  |  Index Return: 23.00%
Remaining Cap: 2.95%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -14.48%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 7%
Cap Yield: 10.45%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ PJAN (15% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 8.20%  |  Index Return: 13.24%
Remaining Cap: 2.97%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -8.15%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 5%
Cap Yield: 10.52%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ UJAN (30% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 7.96%  |  Index Return: 13.24%
Remaining Cap: 3.00%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -12.57%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 8%
Cap Yield: 10.63%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ XBJA (9% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 8.42%  |  Index Return: 13.25%
Remaining Cap: 2.46%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -8.33%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 5%
Cap Yield: 8.72%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
‼️ ZJAN (100% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 4.95%  |  Index Return: 13.24%
Remaining Cap: 1.89%  |  Downside Before Buffer: -5.28%  |  Cap Used: 0.0%  |  Below Cap: 0.0%  |  Probability: 13%
Cap Yield: 6.70%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
ACCELERATION ZONE ALERTS
🎯 Light Green Border
Fund Between -1.5% and 0% of Starting Point
👀 Yellow Border
Index Within 1% of Acceleration Threshold
(Monitor for acceleration opportunity)
🎯🎯 Bright Green Border
Index Is ≥ Acceleration Threshold
(Reset Above Gets Max Cap)
Note: Acceleration ETFs can show multiple alerts simultaneously. For example, an ETF near its starting point may also be approaching its acceleration threshold.
🚀 QTJA (0% Buffer QQQ)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 14.67%  |  Index Return: 17.24%
QQQ Return to Achieve Cap: 6.48%  |  Remaining Cap: 3.59%
Cap Yield: 12.72%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 XTJA (0% Buffer SPY)     103 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.62%  |  Index Return: 13.25%
SPY Return to Achieve Cap: 4.88%  |  Remaining Cap: 3.06%
Cap Yield: 10.84%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 QTAP (0% Buffer QQQ)     193 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 15.28%  |  Index Return: 27.81%
QQQ Return to Achieve Cap: 7.05%  |  Remaining Cap: 4.72%
Cap Yield: 8.93%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 XBAP (9% Buffer SPY)     193 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 8.09%  |  Index Return: 18.65%
SPY Return to Achieve Cap: 6.39%  |  Remaining Cap: 3.96%
Cap Yield: 7.49%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 XTAP (0% Buffer SPY)     193 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 10.98%  |  Index Return: 18.65%
SPY Return to Achieve Cap: 5.55%  |  Remaining Cap: 4.74%
Cap Yield: 8.96%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 QTJL (0% Buffer QQQ)     284 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 6.56%  |  Index Return: 8.65%
QQQ Return to Achieve Cap: 6.33%  |  Remaining Cap: 11.49%
Cap Yield: 14.77%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 XBJL (9% Buffer SPY)     284 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 3.98%  |  Index Return: 7.42%
SPY Return to Achieve Cap: 5.94%  |  Remaining Cap: 7.42%
Cap Yield: 9.54%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%
🚀 XTJL (0% Buffer SPY)     284 Days Until Reset
Fund Return: 5.30%  |  Index Return: 7.43%
SPY Return to Achieve Cap: 5.05%  |  Remaining Cap: 9.18%
Cap Yield: 11.80%  |  T-Bill Yield: 3.88%

Important Disclosures

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Defined Outcome ETFs involve significant risks including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Innovator Specific Disclosures are available at Innovatoretfs.com

For complete terms and conditions, visit: harborside.capital/disclaimer

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Please read the full disclaimer and risk disclosure document before making any investment decisions. Consult with a qualified financial advisor regarding your specific investment objectives and risk tolerance.

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