Daily Report

Outcome Radar - April 13, 2026

Today's analysis: 50 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 18 near cap. Total 79 signals.

Eric Cerrone

— 84 min read
Share
Outcome Radar - Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence - April 13, 2026
Outcome Radar
April 13, 2026
Independent Analysis  ·  Not affiliated with any Fund Provider

HOW TO USE THIS REPORT

A quick walkthrough of every feature in your nightly Outcome Radar™ report
Step 1 of 8

Welcome to Outcome Radar

Every night, Outcome Radar™ scans the entire universe of Defined Outcome ETFs and surfaces the ones that matter most.

Three fund providers are tracked and color-coded throughout:

Innovator™ First Trust™ AllianzIM™
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
📡
OUTCOME RADAR
NIGHTLY DEFINED OUTCOME INTELLIGENCE
Step 2 of 8

The Stats Bar & Market Data

Five key numbers at the top give you an instant pulse check. Scan these first every time you open the report.

Near Entry tells you how many ETFs are near their starting price — fund has reset or is back to its original starting point which could provide more favorable risk/reward characteristics. Near Cap flags funds hitting their ceiling.

Below that, T-Bill yields are your risk-free benchmark, and Implied Volatility shows conditions for each tracked index.

Pro Tip: A higher "Near Entry" count could provide more compelling longer term or tactical opportunities!
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
288
ETFs Analyzed
50
Near Entry
5
Uncapped Near Entry
6
Accel. Zone
18
Near Cap
Step 3 of 7

Filters & Search Tools

The toolbar gives you powerful filtering. All filters work in combination to narrow results.

Provider — Toggle Innovator™, First Trust™, or AllianzIM™ on/off.

Status — Target Range, Extended Range, Near Entry, Accel Zone, Near Cap.

Period — Quarterly, Semi-Annual, Annual, or 2-Year.

Plus ticker search and Data Heavy / Lite toggle.

Pro Tip #1: If an ETF does not fall into any category it WILL NOT show up in the ticker search.
Pro Tip #2: Data Lite removes a lot of the statistics and when used with the Target and Extended Ranges allows for a much quicker analysis.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Provider
Innovator™ × First Trust™ × AllianzIM™ ×
Status
✓ Target Range ✓ Extended Range
🔍 Search ticker
Step 5 of 8

The Near Entry Table

The most actionable section. ETFs here are near their starting price — giving you full cap upside with full buffer protection.

Click any column header to sort. Sorting by Cap Yield descending is the fastest way to find top opportunities.

Look for: High cap yield, high probability, and intact buffers (low DBB).
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
🎯 Near Original Entry 50
StatusTickerCap YldRem. Cap
ExtendedKJAN~20.8%~15.2%
TargetIJAN~17.9%~13.5%
Step 6 of 8

ETF Outcome Profiler

All calculations are estimates and are after fees.

Click any ETF row to open a slide-in detail panel showing the complete picture:

Outcome Profile — Visual cap ceiling, buffer zone, and current index position.

Key Metrics — Cap Used, Buffer Used, Cap Yield, Probability.

Provider Link — Direct link to the fund's page for more info.

Close the panel with the × button, clicking outside, or pressing Escape.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
KJAN
Innovator ETFs™ · IWM – 15% Buffer
Extended Range
Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
BUFFER -14.2% START -0.8% CAP +15.7% FUND Fund Return (%) Index Return (%)
Target Range
Extended Range
Loss Zone
Before Fees
After Fees
~3%
% Cap Used
~5%
% Buffer Used
Step 7 of 8

Report Sections & Dashboard

The report is organized into color-coded sections from most to least actionable. Below the tables, the Intelligence Dashboard provides advanced analytics.

Asymmetry Ratio — Upside vs downside on a ±10% move. 15x means $15 gain per $1 risk.

Upcoming Resets — ETFs approaching their reset date for new caps/buffers.

Top Cap Yield — Pure ranking by annualized cap yield.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
🎯 Near Original Entry
💎 Ultra Buffer Sweet Spot
⚡ Uncapped Buffer
🚀 Acceleration
📈 Near Cap
Step 8 of 8

You're Ready

That's everything! Here's a quick nightly workflow:

1. Check the Stats Bar — glance at Near Entry count.

2. Use Filters — narrow by provider, status, or period.

3. Scan Near Entry — sort by Cap Yield or Days.

4. Open ETF Outcome Profiler — review outcome profile & key metrics.

5. Check the Dashboard — asymmetry ratios & upcoming resets.

Close this tutorial and the ? button at the bottom right will always be there if you need it again.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
✅
YOU'RE ALL SET
Close this overlay and start exploring the report.
288
ETFs Analyzed
50
Near Entry
5
Uncapped Near Entry
6
Accel. Zone
18
Near Cap
1 Mo T-Bill
3.74%
3 Mo T-Bill
3.73%
6 Mo T-Bill
3.75%
12 Mo T-Bill
3.77%
SPY IV
21.3%
QQQ IV
26.4%
IWM IV
29.2%
EFA IV
26.6%
EEM IV
33.1%
RSP IV
19.6%
Provider: Innovator™ × First Trust™ × AllianzIM™ ×
Status: ✓ Target Range × ✓ Extended Range × ✓ Near Entry × ⚡ Uncapped × Accel Zone × Near Cap ×
Period: ✓ Quarterly × ✓ Semi-Annual × ✓ Annual × ✓ 2-Year ×
Showing all ETFs
🎯 Near Original Entry 41
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Target
Range
SIXFSPY10% Buffer 6-Month
 AllianzIM™ ~7.3% ~8.2% 112 ~-0.1% ~23.9% ~20%
Target
Range
FJANSPY10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~14.4% ~8.2% 280 ~-0.2% ~18.8% ~18%
Target
Range
BFEBSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~16.7% ~7.3% 296 ~-0.1% ~20.5% ~15%
Target
Range
FEBTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~15.6% ~8.4% 296 — ~19.2% ~17%
Target
Range
PFEBSPY15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~12.0% ~13.0% 296 ~-0.5% ~14.7% ~22%
Target
Range
FFEBSPY10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~14.8% ~8.3% 315 ~-0.3% ~17.1% ~19%
Extended
Range
AIOOSPY100% Protection
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~99.5% 81 ~-0.6% ~17% Partic. >95%
Extended
Range
SIXPSPY10% Buffer 6-Month
 AllianzIM™ ~7.3% ~8.6% 143 ~-0.6% ~18.5% ~24%
Extended
Range
BNOVSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~15.9% ~7.1% 204 ~-1.6% ~28.4% ~12%
Extended
Range
NNOVQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~14.9% ~11.5% 204 ~-1.0% ~26.6% ~11%
Extended
Range
NVBTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~15.0% ~8.1% 204 ~-1.6% ~26.9% ~13%
Extended
Range
BDECSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~15.9% ~7.1% 234 ~-1.4% ~24.8% ~13%
Extended
Range
DECTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~15.0% ~8.0% 234 ~-1.4% ~23.5% ~14%
Extended
Range
NDECQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~13.7% ~12.3% 234 ~-1.5% ~21.4% ~15%
Extended
Range
DECMSPY50% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~5.3% ~48.9% 252 ~-1.6% ~7.7% ~35%
Extended
Range
FDECSPY10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~13.3% ~8.5% 252 ~-1.4% ~19.3% ~19%
Extended
Range
GDECSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~10.3% ~13.2% 252 ~-1.7% ~15.0% ~24%
Extended
Range
QDECQQQ10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~16.8% ~7.8% 252 ~-1.3% ~24.4% ~13%
Extended
Range
BJANSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~15.3% ~7.6% 265 ~-1.1% ~21.1% ~16%
Extended
Range
JANTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~14.4% ~8.6% 265 ~-1.1% ~19.9% ~18%
Extended
Range
JANWSPY20% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~8.9% ~18.3% 265 ~-1.4% ~12.3% ~27%
Extended
Range
NJANQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~13.2% ~13.2% 265 ~-1.4% ~18.2% ~19%
Extended
Range
PJANSPY15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~10.8% ~13.2% 265 ~-1.5% ~14.8% ~24%
Extended
Range
GJANSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~11.3% ~12.9% 280 ~-0.6% ~14.7% ~22%
Extended
Range
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~5.9% ~43.7% 280 ~-1.1% ~7.7% ~32%
Extended
Range
QCJAQQQ10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~11.2% ~17.9% 280 ~-0.9% ~14.6% ~22%
Extended
Range
XJANSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~8.9% ~12.4% 280 ~-1.0% ~11.6% ~26%
Extended
Range
FEBWSPY20% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~10.0% ~17.9% 296 ~-0.6% ~12.3% ~25%
Extended
Range
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~12.5% ~15.2% 296 ~-1.0% ~15.4% ~26%
Extended
Range
NFEBQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~14.5% ~12.9% 296 ~-0.6% ~17.8% ~18%
Extended
Range
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~6.1% ~45.6% 315 ~-0.9% ~7.0% ~34%
Extended
Range
GFEBSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~11.5% ~13.2% 315 ~-0.6% ~13.3% ~24%
Extended
Range
QMFEQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~13.4% ~13.8% 315 ~-1.5% ~15.5% ~22%
Extended
Range
SFEBIWM15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~16.5% ~13.1% 315 ~-0.8% ~19.1% ~16%
Extended
Range
XFEBSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~9.4% ~12.9% 315 ~-0.9% ~10.9% ~27%
Extended
Range
BMARSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~16.4% ~7.5% 324 ~-0.6% ~18.4% ~17%
Extended
Range
KMARIWM15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~16.2% ~13.2% 324 ~-1.7% ~18.3% ~17%
Extended
Range
MARTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~15.3% ~8.6% 324 ~-0.6% ~17.3% ~19%
Extended
Range
MARWSPY20% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~10.0% ~18.4% 324 ~-0.8% ~11.2% ~27%
Extended
Range
NMARQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~14.1% ~13.9% 324 ~-1.7% ~15.9% ~21%
Extended
Range
PMARSPY15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~12.0% ~13.4% 324 ~-0.8% ~13.5% ~24%
Sort by:
SIXF 10% Buffer
6-Month
Target
Range
▼
FJAN 10% Buffer
Annual
Target
Range
▼
BFEB 9% Buffer
Annual
Target
Range
▼
FEBT 10% Buffer
Annual
Target
Range
▼
PFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Target
Range
▼
FFEB 10% Buffer
Annual
Target
Range
▼
AIOO 100%
Protection
Extended
Range
▼
SIXP 10% Buffer
6-Month
Extended
Range
▼
BNOV 9% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NNOV 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NVBT 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
BDEC 9% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DECT 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NDEC 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DECM 50% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
FDEC 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
GDEC 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
QDEC 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
BJAN 9% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
JANT 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
JANW 20% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NJAN 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
PJAN 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
GJAN 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
JANM 50% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
QCJA 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
XJAN 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
FEBW 20% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
IFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
FEBM 50% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
GFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
QMFE 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
SFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
XFEB 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
BMAR 9% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
KMAR 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
MART 10% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
MARW 20% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
NMAR 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
PMAR 15% Buffer
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
⚡ Uncapped Buffer — Near Threshold Entry 5
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Target
Range
NVBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~14.4% 204 — ~4.0% Spread >95%
Target
Range
DECUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~14.2% 234 — ~4.0% Spread ~49%
Target
Range
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~14.3% 265 — ~3.7% Spread ~50%
Target
Range
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~14.0% 296 — ~3.8% Spread ~49%
Target
Range
MARUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer
 AllianzIM™ ~0.0% ~14.1% 324 — ~4.0% Spread ~49%
Sort by:
NVBU 15%
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
DECU 15%
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
JANU 15%
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
FEBU 15%
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
MARU 15%
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
🛡 100% Principal Protection 4
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Target
Range
ZFEBSPY100% Protection
 Innovator™ ~5.4% ~99.1% 296 ~-0.9% ~6.7% ~34%
Target
Range
ZMARSPY100% Protection
 Innovator™ ~5.9% ~99.2% 324 ~-0.8% ~6.7% ~35%
Extended
Range
APOCSPY100% Protection
 Innovator™ ~2.6% ~99.1% 173 ~-0.9% ~5.6% >95%
Extended
Range
AJANSPY100% Protection
 Innovator™ ~11.3% ~98.1% 630 ~-1.9% ~6.6% ~32%
Sort by:
ZFEB 100%
Protection
Target
Range
▼
ZMAR 100%
Protection
Target
Range
▼
APOC 100%
Protection
Extended
Range
▼
AJAN 100%
Protection
Extended
Range
▼
↔ Dual Direction — Symmetric Participation Analysis 5
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Extended
Range
DDTJSPYDual Direction 10% Annual
 Innovator™ ~11.1% ~8.1% 265 ~-1.6% ~15.3% ~27%
Extended
Range
DDFFSPYDual Direction 15% Annual
 Innovator™ ~8.2% ~12.3% 296 ~-1.2% ~10.1% ~34%
Extended
Range
DDTFSPYDual Direction 10% Annual
 Innovator™ ~12.6% ~7.7% 296 ~-0.7% ~15.6% ~26%
Extended
Range
DDFMSPYDual Direction 15% Annual
 Innovator™ ~8.5% ~12.9% 324 ~-1.2% ~9.5% ~34%
Extended
Range
DDTMSPYDual Direction 10% Annual
 Innovator™ ~12.7% ~8.1% 324 ~-1.0% ~14.3% ~27%
Sort by:
DDTJ Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DDFF Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DDTF Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DDFM Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
DDTM Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
🚀 Acceleration Thresholds 6
Trigger Proximity 6
Identifies funds within 1% of the mathematical participation trigger for accelerated upside.
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Accel Zone
QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~4.9% ~0.0% 81 — ~22.1% ~35%
Accel Zone
XBJLSPY2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~2.8% ~9.0% 81 — ~12.7% ~35%
Accel Zone
XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~5.3% ~0.0% 81 — ~23.9% ~35%
Accel Zone
XDSQSPY2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~4.6% ~0.0% 81 — ~20.6% ~35%
Accel Zone
XTJLSPY2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~3.6% ~0.0% 81 — ~16.4% ~35%
Accel Zone
XTAPSPY2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~14.3% ~0.0% 355 — ~14.7% ~35%
Sort by:
QTJL 3x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
XBJL 2x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
XDQQ 2x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
XDSQ 2x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
XTJL 2x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
XTAP 2x
Accelerated
Accel Zone
▼
▲ Near Cap — At or Near Maximum Period Return 18
Status Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Near Cap
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.0% ~93.1% 7 ~-6.9% ~0.0% >95%
Near Cap
DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.0% ~28.7% 7 ~-17.0% ~0.0% >95%
Near Cap
FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.0% ~14.7% 7 ~-15.6% ~0.0% >95%
Near Cap
GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.0% ~21.1% 7 ~-13.1% ~0.0% >95%
Near Cap
QCAPQQQ10% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.1% ~28.8% 7 ~-13.0% ~3.7% >95%
Near Cap
BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~0.7% ~10.7% 20 ~-15.0% ~12.2% >95%
Near Cap
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~0.8% ~16.2% 20 ~-13.3% ~14.1% >95%
Near Cap
KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~0.2% ~20.9% 20 ~-15.7% ~3.6% >95%
Near Cap
MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~0.6% ~12.0% 20 ~-14.6% ~11.1% >95%
Near Cap
MAYWSPY20% Buffer Annual
 AllianzIM™ ~0.4% ~24.2% 20 ~-10.5% ~6.6% >95%
Near Cap
NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~0.3% ~19.4% 20 ~-14.5% ~5.7% >95%
Near Cap
PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~0.3% ~18.6% 20 ~-12.1% ~5.7% >95%
Near Cap
UMAYSPY30% Ultra Buffer
 Innovator™ ~0.3% ~31.4% 20 ~-15.6% ~4.7% >95%
Near Cap
ZMAYSPY100% Protection
 Innovator™ ~0.2% ~93.4% 20 ~-6.6% ~3.1% >95%
Near Cap
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.6% ~93.9% 35 ~-6.1% ~6.4% >95%
Near Cap
SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~1.2% ~18.4% 35 ~-13.3% ~12.8% >95%
Near Cap
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual
 First Trust™ ~0.7% ~16.7% 35 ~-8.9% ~7.4% >95%
Near Cap
KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual
 Innovator™ ~1.3% ~19.7% 51 ~-13.6% ~9.6% >95%
Sort by:
APXM 100% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
DAPR 25% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
FAPR 10% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
GAPR 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
QCAP 10% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
BMAY 9% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
IMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
KMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
MAYT 10% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
MAYW 20% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
NMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
PMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
UMAY 30% Ultra
Buffer
Near Cap
▼
ZMAY 100%
Protection
Near Cap
▼
MAYM 50% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
SMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
XMAY 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼
KJUN 15% Buffer
Annual
Near Cap
▼

Independent Research & Trademark Notices

Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.

All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.

© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.

—
—
—
— View on Provider →
Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
Target Range
Extended Range
Loss Zone
Before Fees
After Fees
Max Gain
~0%
% Cap Used
~0%
% Buffer Used
Note: * All values shown are after-fee (net) values.  ** Probability estimates are model-based and not predictive of future results.  All data is sourced from publicly available sources.  Not affiliated with any Fund Company.  This publication does not constitute investment advice.
How to Use This Report
Intelligence Dashboard
The collapsible dashboard at the top provides a quick snapshot of the most important intelligence. Click the Intelligence Dashboard bar to expand or collapse it.

Asymmetry Ratio — A proprietary indicator that measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.

Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.

Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so you can compare a fund with 60 days left to one with 300 days left on equal footing. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.

Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
Expand Sections That Interest You
Each section is collapsed by default. Click the section header to expand it and see the ETFs inside. Near Cap sections start open since they are time-sensitive alerts.
Sort to Find What Matters
Click any column header on desktop to sort that section. On mobile, use the sort bar below each table. Try sorting by Cap Yield to find the best annualized return potential, or by Days to see what resets soonest.
Use Filters to Narrow Down
The provider, period, and status chips at the top let you isolate specific fund families, time horizons, or signal types. The ticker search box lets you jump straight to a specific ETF.
View Details & Payoff Curves
Click "View" on any ETF to open a side panel with the full payoff curve, key metrics, and position visualization. This shows you exactly where the ETF sits within its outcome period.
Toggle Data Lite Mode
The Data Heavy / Data Lite toggle at the top right simplifies the view by hiding less critical columns. Useful for a quick scan on mobile.
Section Guide
Near Original Entry — Best entry points: ETFs trading closest to their starting price with maximum cap and buffer intact.

Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.

Approaching Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; useful for deciding whether to hold or roll.

Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
Tap the ⓘ button again to close
Glossary of Terms
Remaining Cap (Rem. Cap)
The maximum upside return still available before the fund hits its ceiling for the period. Higher = more room to grow.
Remaining Buffer (Rem. Buf)
~15% current level of downside protection by the end of the outcome period.
Days
Calendar days left until the outcome period resets. At reset, the fund starts a new cap and buffer cycle.
DBB (Downside Before Buffer)
The amount of fund loss before the buffer starts.
Cap Yield (Cap Yld)
The remaining cap expressed as an annualized return. Lets you compare ETFs with different time horizons on equal footing.
Probability (Prob.)
Model-estimated likelihood that the index will reach the cap level by expiration. Based on current implied volatility and time remaining.
Target Range
The fund is trading closest to its starting price minus the fund fee — the ideal entry zone where you get the most cap and the most buffer.
Extended Range
Still near the starting price but slightly outside the tightest zone. Cap and buffer are still largely intact.
Near Cap
The fund is at or near its maximum return for the period. Little upside remains, but downside risk is still present.
Acceleration Zone
Leveraged ETFs (2x or 3x) that multiply index gains above a threshold. Position matters — being near the start or threshold changes the risk/reward.
% Cap Used / % Buffer Used
How much of the original cap or buffer has already been consumed by index movement since the period started.

Read more