Outcome Radar - April 16, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 35 near cap. Total 49 signals.
Twenty-one of the 25 funds in the 100% Protection category are sitting comfortably mid-period tonight — quiet, as you'd expect from this cohort. Just 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, so the starting-level crowd is thin. The more active conversation here is around the 3 Near-Cap funds, where existing holders will want to evaluate roll considerations before the outcome period closes and remaining upside compresses further. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
AIOOSPY100% Protection |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~99.1% | 75 | ~-1.1% | ~17% Partic. | N/A |
Protection
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.3% | 14 | ~-6.7% | ~3.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.7% | 45 | ~-6.3% | ~4.9% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~85.2% | 75 | ~-14.8% | ~6.0% | >95% |
Fifty-three of the 64 Standard 9% funds are mid-period tonight — the bulk of the category is simply doing its job, sitting comfortably between the extremes. Only 2 funds are in Target/Extended Range, keeping that end of the spectrum thin. The more active conversation is at the other end: 9 funds are Near Cap, and existing holders in those positions may want to evaluate roll timing before the outcome period closes out. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.0% | ~13.9% | 318 | 0.0% | ~17.2% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~11.8% | ~15.3% | 290 | ~-1.6% | ~14.9% | ~27% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~12.7% | 14 | ~-15.4% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.5% | 14 | ~-13.6% | ~11.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.9% | 14 | ~-15.8% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.2% | 14 | ~-14.7% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~20.6% | 14 | ~-12.2% | ~2.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~10.7% | 45 | ~-12.9% | ~12.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.4% | 45 | ~-14.1% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~18.6% | 45 | ~-12.5% | ~9.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~18.1% | 45 | ~-10.5% | ~7.9% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Seventy-six of the 88 Buffer 10-15% funds are sitting squarely mid-period tonight — the bulk of this category is just doing its job, quietly. Zero funds are in Target/Extended Range, so there's nothing near starting levels worth flagging. The more notable cluster is the 12 funds approaching their cap; existing holders there may want to evaluate roll timing before the outcome period closes and remaining upside compresses further. Clean distribution overall, with the action concentrated at the top end. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~30.4% | 1 | ~-17.0% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~16.9% | 1 | ~-15.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.1% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCAPQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~31.5% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~10.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~14.1% | 14 | ~-14.8% | ~9.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~25.7% | 29 | ~-15.0% | ~8.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~11.4% | 29 | ~-12.3% | ~12.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.4% | 29 | ~-10.6% | ~7.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.1% | 29 | ~-12.6% | ~10.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~20.1% | 29 | ~-13.9% | ~7.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.8% | 29 | ~-9.2% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~18.3% | 63 | ~-14.9% | ~7.8% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Twenty-nine of the 37 funds in the Buffer 20%+ category are parked mid-period tonight — the bulk of the lineup quietly doing its job. Only 2 sit in Target/Extended Range, so the starting-level crowd is thin. More worth noting: 6 funds are Near Cap, and existing holders there may want to evaluate roll considerations before the outcome period closes and remaining upside compresses further. A deep buffer with limited room left is still protection — just worth a closer look on the calendar. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~44.9% | 274 | ~-1.6% | ~7.1% | ~39% | |
| Extended Range |
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~46.7% | 309 | ~-1.5% | ~6.5% | ~40% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.1% | 1 | ~-6.9% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~26.1% | 14 | ~-10.6% | ~6.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~32.9% | 14 | ~-15.7% | ~3.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~93.7% | 29 | ~-6.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~23.5% | 45 | ~-9.3% | ~7.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~31.0% | 45 | ~-14.4% | ~7.2% | >95% |
Eleven of the 14 Uncapped funds are sitting comfortably mid-period tonight — no drama at either extreme. Three funds have drifted back toward Target/Extended Range, worth noting for existing holders tracking where they stand in the outcome period. On the Near Cap side, the count is zero, so there are no roll considerations in play here right now. A quiet snapshot for this group, but the mid-period majority means most holders still have meaningful outcome period ahead of them. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 259 | 0.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 259 | 0.0% | ~3.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 290 | 0.0% | ~3.8% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
All 23 Dual Direction funds are mid-period tonight — not one sits in Target/Extended Range, and none are approaching their cap. That's a clean sweep of the middle, which keeps roll considerations off the table entirely for existing holders. Nothing to flag at either extreme; these funds are simply working through their outcome periods. A quiet snapshot, but worth knowing the whole category is uniformly mid-cycle with no action items on either end. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
All 26 Specialty funds are mid-period tonight — not one sitting in Target/Extended Range, not one pushing near its cap. That kind of clean sweep is actually pretty rare. With zero roll considerations on the table, existing holders have nothing pressing to evaluate on the outcome-period front. These funds are simply working through their periods as designed, sitting comfortably away from either extreme. A quiet snapshot, but a tidy one. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~21.6% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.8% | ~9.0% | 167 | 0.0% | ~12.7% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~16.8% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.7% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~14.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~9.0% | 349 | 0.0% | ~10.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.2% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~12.8% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.3% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.9% | ~9.0% | 75 | 0.0% | ~9.2% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.2% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~15.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.6% | ~35% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~11.5% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.