Outcome Radar - April 16, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 35 near cap. Total 49 signals.
Full downside protection remains the defining theme here, and tonight's landscape looks largely settled — the majority of funds are comfortably mid-period, tracking steadily toward their outcome dates with their buffers fully intact. A small handful are pressing near their upside caps, signaling strong performance for early investors, while one fund stands out as a compelling near-entry opportunity for new capital. A couple of shorter-dated names are approaching reset, offering a near-term chance to lock in fresh terms at full protection. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
AIOOSPY100% Protection |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~99.1% | 75 | ~-1.1% | ~17% Partic. | N/A |
Protection
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.3% | 14 | ~-6.7% | ~3.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.7% | 45 | ~-6.3% | ~4.9% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~85.2% | 75 | ~-14.8% | ~6.0% | >95% |
The Standard 9% universe is broadly mid-cycle tonight, with the majority of funds settled comfortably into their outcome periods and performing as designed. A small handful are trading near their original entry points, offering investors attractive reset-like value, while several others are pressing toward their upside caps — a sign that equity markets have rewarded participation. A couple of freshly reset funds stand out with notably wide remaining cap room, making this an opportune moment to evaluate near-entry positions before that cushion narrows. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.0% | ~13.9% | 318 | 0.0% | ~17.2% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~11.8% | ~15.3% | 290 | ~-1.6% | ~14.9% | ~27% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~12.7% | 14 | ~-15.4% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.5% | 14 | ~-13.6% | ~11.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.9% | 14 | ~-15.8% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.2% | 14 | ~-14.7% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~20.6% | 14 | ~-12.2% | ~2.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~10.7% | 45 | ~-12.9% | ~12.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.4% | 45 | ~-14.1% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~18.6% | 45 | ~-12.5% | ~9.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~18.1% | 45 | ~-10.5% | ~7.9% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
The Buffer 10–15% sleeve presents a broadly constructive picture tonight, with the large majority of funds settling comfortably in mid-period — still carrying meaningful downside protection while retaining room to participate in further upside. A notable cluster is pressing toward their caps, reflecting the resilience equity markets have shown through recent outcome periods. Worth watching: several April-vintage funds are essentially at the finish line, with resets imminent and fresh entry points on the horizon for investors seeking near-entry positioning. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~30.4% | 1 | ~-17.0% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~16.9% | 1 | ~-15.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.1% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCAPQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~31.5% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~10.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~14.1% | 14 | ~-14.8% | ~9.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~25.7% | 29 | ~-15.0% | ~8.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~11.4% | 29 | ~-12.3% | ~12.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.4% | 29 | ~-10.6% | ~7.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.1% | 29 | ~-12.6% | ~10.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~20.1% | 29 | ~-13.9% | ~7.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.8% | 29 | ~-9.2% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~18.3% | 63 | ~-14.9% | ~7.8% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
The Buffer 20%+ segment is looking healthy tonight, with the large majority of funds settled comfortably in mid-period — meaning their downside protection is fully intact and investors are still carrying meaningful upside potential. A small handful are trading near entry, offering an attractive starting point for new allocations. A few others are approaching their caps, reflecting strong underlying market performance over their outcome periods. One fund is essentially at its reset point, making it worth a close look ahead of tomorrow's roll. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~44.9% | 274 | ~-1.6% | ~7.1% | ~39% | |
| Extended Range |
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~46.7% | 309 | ~-1.5% | ~6.5% | ~40% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.1% | 1 | ~-6.9% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~26.1% | 14 | ~-10.6% | ~6.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~32.9% | 14 | ~-15.7% | ~3.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~93.7% | 29 | ~-6.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~23.5% | 45 | ~-9.3% | ~7.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~31.0% | 45 | ~-14.4% | ~7.2% | >95% |
Uncapped defined-outcome ETFs are showing a constructive picture tonight, with the majority of names sitting comfortably mid-period and still offering meaningful upside participation with no ceiling to worry about. A handful of funds are trading near entry, presenting attractive reset-level value for investors looking to step in close to the original outcome terms. Nothing is crowding the top of its range, which means the category broadly retains strong return potential as these outcome periods continue to mature. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 259 | 0.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 259 | 0.0% | ~3.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 290 | 0.0% | ~3.8% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Dual Direction ETFs are showing a clean, settled picture tonight, with the entire universe sitting comfortably mid-period — none are pressing their upside caps and none have drifted back to entry-level value. That mid-period clustering reflects a market that has moved in an orderly fashion since these outcome periods launched, giving holders the benefit of the dual-direction buffer without the urgency of an imminent reset decision. Patient positioning remains the story here. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
Specialty defined-outcome ETFs are showing a remarkably uniform picture tonight, with the entire universe sitting squarely in mid-period territory — neither crowding the entry zone nor pressing against their upside caps. That balance suggests investors across this segment entered at varied points and are progressing through their outcome periods with healthy runway remaining in both directions. For advisors, this mid-period positioning signals a stable, well-distributed cohort worth monitoring as individual funds begin approaching actionable reset opportunities in the weeks ahead. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~21.6% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.8% | ~9.0% | 167 | 0.0% | ~12.7% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~16.8% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.7% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~14.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~9.0% | 349 | 0.0% | ~10.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.2% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~12.8% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.3% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.9% | ~9.0% | 75 | 0.0% | ~9.2% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.2% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~15.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.6% | ~35% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~11.5% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.