Outcome Radar - April 22, 2026
Today's analysis: 8 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 31 near cap. Total 49 signals.
6 of 48 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap — the roll evaluation bucket for existing holders — and 1 is in Target/Extended Range; the remaining 41 are mid-period. On further upside, some of those 41 could migrate into Near-Cap territory worth monitoring. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~15.1% | ~9.0% | 360 | ~-0.2% | ~15.3% | ~21% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~12.9% | 9 | ~-15.4% | ~6.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~14.1% | 9 | ~-15.0% | ~4.9% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~11.7% | 24 | ~-12.4% | ~14.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~10.9% | 40 | ~-12.9% | ~13.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~1.4% | ~12.2% | 40 | ~-12.5% | ~13.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~18.1% | 58 | ~-15.0% | ~8.2% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
11 of 88 are Near Cap — existing holders may want to evaluate roll options, noting that some funds in this tier track non-SPY indexes with limited comparable replacements. 3 are in Target/Extended Range; the remaining 74 are mid-period annual-cycle funds. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.1% | ~13.9% | 360 | ~-0.3% | ~12.2% | ~26% | |
| Target Range |
XAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.0% | ~13.8% | 360 | ~-0.4% | ~10.1% | ~29% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~12.5% | ~14.8% | 285 | ~-1.0% | ~16.0% | ~25% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~15.6% | 9 | ~-13.5% | ~22.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~23.9% | 9 | ~-15.8% | ~1.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~22.6% | 9 | ~-14.7% | ~0.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~20.8% | 9 | ~-12.3% | ~2.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.7% | 24 | ~-10.6% | ~9.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.5% | 24 | ~-12.7% | ~11.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~21.1% | 24 | ~-13.9% | ~8.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~18.9% | 24 | ~-9.3% | ~4.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~22.4% | 40 | ~-14.1% | ~6.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~19.0% | 40 | ~-12.6% | ~9.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~18.4% | 40 | ~-10.5% | ~8.8% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
6 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap; existing holders may want to evaluate roll options, though comparable deep-buffer alternatives can be limited — letting these reset may be the cleaner path. 3 are in Target/Extended Range, and 43 are mid-period. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
QCAPQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.4% | ~18.6% | 360 | ~-0.6% | ~12.6% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.2% | ~45.0% | 269 | ~-1.8% | ~7.0% | ~40% | |
| Extended Range |
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.4% | ~46.8% | 304 | ~-1.5% | ~6.5% | ~41% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~26.2% | 9 | ~-10.8% | ~2.8% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~33.1% | 9 | ~-15.8% | ~3.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~25.9% | 24 | ~-15.1% | ~9.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~93.6% | 24 | ~-6.4% | ~3.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.8% | ~23.7% | 40 | ~-9.3% | ~7.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~31.1% | 40 | ~-14.4% | ~8.1% | >95% |
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
4 of the 14 annual-cycle uncapped funds are in Target/Extended Range; the remaining 10 are mid-period. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
NVBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.8% | 193 | 0.0% | ~4.0% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
DECUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 223 | 0.0% | ~4.0% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 254 | 0.0% | ~3.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 254 | 0.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
3 of 26 are Near Cap and 1 is in Target/Extended Range; the other 22 are mid-period across 16 annual, 8 two-year, and 2 six-month cycles. Roll alternatives in this tier are limited — existing holders with Near-Cap positions may find it cleaner to let those funds reset rather than seek a replacement. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.4% | ~49.0% | 360 | ~-0.7% | ~6.4% | ~36% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.3% | 9 | ~-6.7% | ~4.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.6% | 40 | ~-6.4% | ~5.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~85.2% | 70 | ~-14.8% | ~6.4% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
Protection
All 23 Dual Direction funds are mid-period annual-cycle positions with no Near-Cap or Target/Extended Range signals tonight. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
All 23 funds are mid-period — 17 quarterly, 6 six-month — with no Near-Cap or Target/Extended Range signals tonight. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
11 of 14 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with the remaining 3 mid-period; no funds are Near Cap tonight. On further upside, some of those 11 could move toward their participation ceilings and into roll-evaluation territory. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.5% | ~0.0% | 162 | — | ~21.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.8% | ~9.0% | 162 | 0.0% | ~13.0% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.6% | ~0.0% | 162 | — | ~17.2% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.5% | ~0.0% | 344 | — | ~14.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.8% | ~9.0% | 344 | 0.0% | ~10.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.2% | ~0.0% | 344 | — | ~12.9% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~0.0% | 70 | — | ~15.1% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.9% | ~9.0% | 70 | 0.0% | ~9.7% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.1% | ~0.0% | 70 | — | ~16.3% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 70 | — | ~15.6% | ~35% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~0.0% | 70 | — | ~12.6% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.