Outcome Radar - July 1, 2026
Today's analysis: 44 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 23 near cap. Total 71 signals.
Outcome
RadarTM
Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence
July 01, 2026
Independent Analysis · Not affiliated with any Fund Provider
316
ETFs Analyzed
44
Target / Extended
4
Uncapped Target
0
Accel Range
23
Near Cap
1 Mo T-Bill
3.70%
3 Mo T-Bill
3.87%
6 Mo T-Bill
4.01%
12 Mo T-Bill
3.98%
SPY IV
12.8%
QQQ IV
23.5%
IWM IV
19.1%
EFA IV
14.6%
EEM IV
33.4%
RSP IV
13.0%
General, impersonal research.
Not individualized advice or a recommendation. Modeled values are estimates and may differ from realized outcomes.
Filters, saved layouts, and watchlist selections change display preferences only; they do not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Showing all ETFs
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Intelligence Dashboard
5 of 52 annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest showing a 9.01% remaining buffer and 351 days left in its period; 4 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across their payoff curves; the other 43 are mid-period. Underlying exposure spans SPY, QQQ, IVV, EEM, and RSP.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 🎯 Target / Extended Range 5 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~25.3% | ~8.2% | 351 | 0.0% | ~26.3% | ~8% | |
| Target Range |
BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~18.1% | ~7.6% | 334 | ~-0.1% | ~19.7% | ~15% | |
| Target Range |
JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~17.3% | ~8.3% | 334 | ~-0.4% | ~18.9% | ~16% | |
| Extended Range |
BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~17.5% | ~8.2% | 364 | ~-0.7% | ~17.5% | ~18% | |
| Extended Range |
FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~15.6% | ~9.0% | 351 | ~-0.9% | ~16.2% | ~20% |
QJUN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
BJUN
9% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
JUNT
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
BJUL
9% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
FJUN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | FJULSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~11.7% | 16 | ~-12.5% | ~9.6% | ~85% | |
| Near Cap | AUGTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.2% | ~11.4% | 30 | ~-12.3% | ~15.0% | ~72% | |
| Near Cap | BAUGSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~10.0% | 30 | ~-12.9% | ~13.4% | ~69% | |
| Near Cap | TENJIVV10% Buffer Annual |
iShares™ | ~0.8% | ~9.1% | 112 | ~-9.9% | ~2.6% | ~50% |
FJUL
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
AUGT
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
BAUG
9% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
TENJ
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 43 ▶
14 of 88 annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range, and 8 are Near Cap with remaining cap compressed toward zero; the other 66 are mid-period. The freshest Target/Extended Range fund carries a 14.28% modeled remaining buffer with 364 days to reset and -0.60% downside before buffer. The 88 funds span four reference assets — 36 SPY, 16 EFA, 16 IWM, and 16 QQQ — with a small EEM sleeve of 4.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 💎 Target / Extended Range 14 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~18.7% | ~13.6% | 334 | 0.0% | ~20.5% | ~14% | |
| Target Range |
NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~20.2% | ~13.7% | 364 | ~-0.0% | ~20.2% | ~14% | |
| Target Range |
YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~14.6% | ~13.7% | 351 | ~-0.2% | ~15.2% | ~21% | |
| Target Range |
PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.4% | ~13.4% | 334 | ~-0.4% | ~14.7% | ~22% | |
| Extended Range |
EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~31.4% | ~13.2% | 364 | 0.0% | ~31.4% | ~4% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.2% | ~12.4% | 242 | ~-0.7% | ~19.9% | ~17% | |
| Extended Range |
KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~18.9% | ~14.1% | 364 | ~-0.6% | ~19.0% | ~16% | |
| Extended Range |
IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.9% | ~12.7% | 334 | ~-0.8% | ~16.3% | ~18% | |
| Extended Range |
IJULEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~16.3% | ~13.7% | 364 | ~-0.6% | ~16.3% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.0% | ~14.0% | 324 | ~-1.7% | ~13.5% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.4% | ~14.3% | 364 | ~-0.6% | ~13.4% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.5% | ~14.0% | 351 | ~-0.9% | ~13.0% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.2% | ~14.0% | 351 | ~-0.8% | ~10.6% | ~29% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~9.2% | ~14.0% | 324 | ~-1.8% | ~10.4% | ~31% |
NJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
NJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
YJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
PJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
EJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
IMAR
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
KJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
IJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
IJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
GMAY
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
PJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
GJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
XJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
XMAY
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 8 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~23.1% | 30 | ~-14.6% | ~5.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NAUGQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~21.3% | 30 | ~-12.5% | ~8.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~21.6% | 51 | ~-13.9% | ~6.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~19.3% | 16 | ~-9.2% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~17.8% | 16 | ~-10.7% | ~6.2% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | KSEPIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~19.6% | 61 | ~-13.6% | ~8.7% | ~89% | |
| Near Cap | PAUGSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~17.5% | 30 | ~-10.4% | ~8.8% | ~86% | |
| Near Cap | XAUGSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.2% | 51 | ~-8.5% | ~6.1% | ~80% |
KAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
NAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
SAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
XJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
GJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
KSEP
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
PAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
XAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 66 ▶
4 of 52 funds are in Target/Extended Range and 5 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across that cohort; the other 43 are mid-period. The freshest Target/Extended Range fund carries a modeled 99.16% remaining buffer with 351 days left in its annual cycle, reflecting the deep-protection tier's structural trade-off of wider buffers against tighter caps. The 5 Near-Cap funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves and the end of their reset cycles, with full downside exposure remaining.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 💪 Target / Extended Range 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~11.6% | ~18.4% | 334 | ~-0.5% | ~12.6% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~2.6% | ~12.2% | 79 | ~-0.3% | ~12.2% | ~39% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.5% | ~99.2% | 351 | ~-0.8% | ~6.7% | ~36% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.9% | ~98.9% | 324 | ~-1.1% | ~6.6% | ~39% |
JUNW
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
SQMX
50% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Extended
Range
▼
Range
JUNM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
MAYM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 5 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~27.5% | 16 | ~-10.7% | ~6.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~65.3% | 16 | ~-6.6% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJULSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~25.9% | 16 | ~-15.1% | ~5.7% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | AUGWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.6% | ~22.9% | 30 | ~-9.3% | ~7.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | UAUGSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~30.4% | 30 | ~-14.5% | ~8.3% | ~88% |
QCJL
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
JULM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
DJUL
25% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
AUGW
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
UAUG
30% Ultra
Buffer
Buffer
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 43 ▶
4 of 26 uncapped annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range; the remaining 22 are mid-period. The freshest Target/Extended Range fund shows a 14.60% modeled remaining buffer with 183 days until reset and a -2.89% downside before buffer, on an EFA underlying — one of only 2 EFA-referenced funds across a tab that is otherwise SPY-dominated.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 ⚡ Target / Extended Range 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Modeled Probability % |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.6% | 183 | ~-2.9% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.4% | 303 | ~-3.6% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
JUNZSPY10% Uncapped Buffer |
TrueShares™ | ~0.0% | ~8.7% | 335 | 0.0% | ~75% Partic. | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
JNEUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 334 | 0.0% | ~4.3% Spread | N/A |
JANI
15%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
Range
MAYU
15%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
Range
JUNZ
10%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
Range
JNEU
15%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Extended
Range
▼
Range
👀 Mid-Period Funds 22 ▶
4 of 30 funds are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a modeled 99.54% remaining buffer and 183 days left in its outcome period; 1 fund is Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero; the other 25 are mid-period across annual and two-year cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 🛡 Target / Extended Range 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~16.9% | ~98.5% | 730 | ~-1.4% | ~8.4% | ~38% | |
| Target Range |
ZJUNVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.3% | ~99.3% | 334 | ~-0.7% | ~8.0% | ~32% | |
| Target Range |
ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.6% | ~99.2% | 364 | ~-0.8% | ~7.6% | ~52% | |
| Target Range |
JAJLSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~3.6% | ~99.5% | 183 | ~-0.5% | ~7.2% | ~64% |
AJUL
100%
Protection
Protection
Target
Range
▼
Range
ZJUN
100%
Protection
Protection
Target
Range
▼
Range
ZJUL
100%
Protection
Protection
Target
Range
▼
Range
JAJL
100%
Protection
Protection
Target
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 1 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | ZAUGSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.7% | 30 | ~-6.3% | ~7.4% | >95% |
ZAUG
100%
Protection
Protection
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 25 ▶
6 of 29 dual-direction funds are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest showing a 21.03% modeled remaining buffer and 364 days remaining on an SPY-based annual cycle. 2 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across their payoff curves. The other 21 are mid-period, all annual, split predominantly across SPY and VOO with a small QQQ allocation.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 ↔ Target / Extended Range 6 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.0% | ~16.8% | 364 | ~-0.3% | ~15.0% | ~24% | |
| Target Range |
DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~4.8% | 91 | ~-0.1% | ~14.0% | ~37% | |
| Extended Range |
DQJNQQQDual Direction 10% Annual |
First Trust™ | ~22.7% | ~9.0% | 351 | 0.0% | ~23.6% | ~14% | |
| Extended Range |
DDTZVOODual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.5% | ~7.8% | 334 | ~-0.9% | ~15.8% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
DDFZVOODual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~12.9% | 334 | ~-0.8% | ~10.8% | ~32% | |
| Extended Range |
DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~10.3% | ~21.0% | 364 | ~-0.7% | ~10.3% | ~32% |
DDTL
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
DDSQ
Dual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
DQJN
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
DDTZ
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
DDFZ
Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
DDFL
Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 2 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDFSSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~18.6% | 61 | ~-7.8% | ~5.1% | ~46% | |
| Near Cap | DDTSSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~12.1% | 61 | ~-10.0% | ~9.2% | ~43% |
DDFS
Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
Near Cap
▼
DDTS
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 21 ▶
6 of 23 funds are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest showing a 19.71% modeled remaining buffer and 91 days to reset on a SPY-referenced quarterly cycle; the reference asset is currently -0.19% from the buffer's starting edge. The remaining 17 are mid-period across a mix of quarterly and 6-month terms, split across SPY, EFA, IWM, QQQ, EEM, and VOO underlyings.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 📅 Target / Extended Range 6 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~6.2% | ~8.8% | 91 | 0.0% | ~25.0% | ~22% | |
| Target Range |
SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~8.1% | ~8.7% | 152 | 0.0% | ~19.5% | ~23% | |
| Target Range |
RBUFIWM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~4.8% | ~9.5% | 91 | ~-0.2% | ~19.1% | ~30% | |
| Target Range |
IBUFEFA10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~3.6% | ~9.3% | 91 | 0.0% | ~14.5% | ~33% | |
| Target Range |
ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~3.4% | ~9.7% | 91 | ~-0.1% | ~13.8% | ~36% | |
| Target Range |
BALTSPY20% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~2.3% | ~19.7% | 91 | ~-0.2% | ~9.3% | ~40% |
QBUF
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
SIXD
10% Buffer
6-Month
6-Month
Target
Range
▼
Range
RBUF
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
IBUF
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
ZALT
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
BALT
20% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
👀 Mid-Period Funds 17 ▶
8 of 16 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with the freshest showing a 9% buffer and 364 days remaining on a SPY-underlying annual cycle with no downside before the buffer. No funds are Near Cap. The remaining 8 are mid-period, spread across SPY, QQQ, VOO, GLD, and IVV underlyings.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🚀 Accelerated — Target Range 5 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Range | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.6% | ~0.0% | 91 | — | ~50.6% | ~15% | |
| Accel Range | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.0% | ~0.0% | 91 | — | ~28.2% | ~30% | |
| Accel Range | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~25.8% | ~0.0% | 364 | — | ~25.8% | ~30% | |
| Accel Range | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.3% | ~9.0% | 364 | 0.0% | ~13.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Range | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~16.7% | ~0.0% | 364 | — | ~16.8% | ~35% |
XDQQ
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accel Range
▼
XDSQ
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accel Range
▼
QTJL
3x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accel Range
▼
XBJL
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accel Range
▼
XTJL
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accel Range
▼
▲ Accelerated — Near Cap 3 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~0.0% | 91 | — | ~14.1% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~9.0% | 91 | 0.0% | ~9.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 91 | — | ~11.9% | ~50% |
QTOC
3x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XBOC
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XTOC
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 8 ▶
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
Below Buffer
Buffer Zone
Cap Ceiling
Target Range
Fund (now)
Index (now)
How to Use This Report
Intelligence Dashboard
The collapsible dashboard at the top summarizes current report metrics. Click the Intelligence Dashboard bar to expand or collapse it. Every ticker and volume box in the dashboard is clickable — click it and the report automatically switches tabs, expands the corresponding section, and scrolls to that ETF’s row (which briefly flashes amber to identify the row).
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs with scheduled resets within the next 8 days. At reset, the fund begins a new outcome period with newly established cap and buffer terms.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers as display selections. Each card shows the ETF’s current classification (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. The watchlist is saved in the browser and changes presentation only; it does not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs with scheduled resets within the next 8 days. At reset, the fund begins a new outcome period with newly established cap and buffer terms.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers as display selections. Each card shows the ETF’s current classification (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. The watchlist is saved in the browser and changes presentation only; it does not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
Tab Navigation
The report is organized into 8 tabs in this order: Standard 9%, Buffer 11-19%, Buffer 20%+, Uncapped, 100% Buffer, Dual Direction, 3&6 Month Buffers, and Specialty. Specialty includes accelerated products and other structures that do not fit the standard buffer tabs. Click a tab to see only the ETFs in that category.
Executive Summary (top of each tab)
Every tab opens with a small Executive Summary pill above the tables. Click it to expand a one-paragraph plain-English read on what’s happening in that tab tonight — how many funds sit in Target/Extended Range, how many are Near Cap, how much time remains, and how the rest of the tab is distributed. Language is descriptive, not prescriptive. Every summary ends with For informational purposes, not investment advice. on its own line.
Current Structural Note (under each chart)
When you open an ETF’s detail panel, the Current Structural Note sits just under the Outcome Profile chart. It is a factual line based on the product type and current modeled values — for example:
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Near cap condition · ~0.8% remaining cap · 45 days to reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Near cap condition · ~0.8% remaining cap · 45 days to reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Reading the Outcome Profile Chart
The chart plots one amber payoff line (net of fund fees) against index return. Colored bands mark the Target Range (green), Extended Range (amber), and Loss Zone (red). The white NOW dot marks today’s index level on the payoff curve and visually indicates the current modeled cap and buffer state. Dashed vertical reference lines mark the BUFFER, START, and CAP levels.
Expand Report Sections
Within each tab, ETFs are grouped into Target / Extended Range (closest to original starting parameters), Near Cap (approaching the current period ceiling), and Mid-Period Funds (the remaining classifications for that buffer type). Click the section header to expand or collapse it. Near Cap sections start open to display current structural conditions; Mid-Period Funds starts collapsed.
Near Cap Funds
When an ETF is approaching its cap, the Current Structural Note shows “Near cap condition · [remaining cap] · [days] to reset.” This is a factual classification, not an instruction to trade. The publication does not identify a specific replacement ticker for any individual fund. The database and filters provide generally available comparisons by underlying index, buffer, period, and current metrics.
Compare Current Metrics
Click any column header on desktop to sort that section. On mobile, use the sort bar below each table. Distance from Target Range orders funds by proximity to the original starting-price range, Cap Yield orders the displayed annualized remaining-cap values, and Days orders scheduled reset timing.
Use Filters to Narrow Down
The provider, period, and status chips at the top let you isolate specific fund families, time horizons, or classification types. The ticker search box lets you jump directly to a specific ETF regardless of tab.
Save Your Layout
When viewing the report through Outcome Radar, a Save Layout button sits just above the report. It remembers which tab is active, which sections are open or collapsed, which filter chips are on, and which executive summaries are expanded. Reset Layout clears the saved view and returns the report to its default state. This subscriber-specific setting changes presentation only; it does not alter data, calculations, classifications, or substantive content.
View Details & Payoff Curves
Click "View" on any ETF row to open a side panel with the modeled payoff curve, key metrics, and current period visualization.
Toggle Quick Scan Mode
The Full Sweep / Quick Scan toggle at the top right changes the displayed columns. Quick Scan keeps Status, Ticker, Provider, Days, and Cap Yield while hiding secondary metrics.
Section Guide
Target / Extended Range — ETFs trading closest to their original starting-price range. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown for each fund. Sorted by distance from target range.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Modeled Acceleration Range — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) classified by their current position relative to the modeled multiplier threshold and ceiling.
Dual Direction — ETFs with modeled participation in both positive and negative index moves.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Modeled Acceleration Range — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) classified by their current position relative to the modeled multiplier threshold and ceiling.
Dual Direction — ETFs with modeled participation in both positive and negative index moves.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.
Glossary of Terms
Remaining Cap (Rem. Cap)
The modeled fund return remaining before the current outcome-period ceiling. All values are net of fund fees.
Remaining Buffer (Rem. Buf)
The amount of modeled index-side decline still covered by the fund’s stated buffer before additional fund loss begins.
Days
Calendar days left until the outcome period resets. At reset, the fund starts a new cap and buffer cycle.
DBB (Downside Before Buffer)
The amount of fund loss before the buffer starts.
Cap Yield (Cap Yld)
The remaining cap expressed as an annualized return. Lets you compare ETFs with different time horizons on equal footing.
Modeled Probability %
A derived ratio expressing the option-market-implied likelihood that the underlying index will reach the cap level over the remaining outcome period. Calculated from current implied volatility and time remaining using a standard Black-Scholes model. This is a mathematical observation of what the options market currently implies, not a forecast, prediction, or recommendation by Outcome Radar. The value changes as market conditions change.
Target Range
The fund is trading closest to its original starting-price range after the fund fee. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown separately in the report. The range is shown as the narrow green band on the Outcome Profile chart.
Extended Range
The fund is near, but slightly outside, the tightest starting-price range. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown separately in the report. The range is shown as the wider amber band on the chart.
Near Cap
The fund is at or near its maximum return for the period. Little upside remains, but downside risk is still present.
Modeled Acceleration Range
The current modeled range around a leveraged ETF’s multiplier threshold. The classification describes the fund’s position relative to its threshold and ceiling; it is not a recommendation.
% Cap Used / % Buffer Used
How much of the original cap or buffer has already been consumed by index movement since the period started.
NOW Marker
The white dot on the Outcome Profile chart, positioned on the payoff curve at today’s index level. It visually marks the fund’s current modeled position.
Current Structural Note
The one-line factual strip under each chart that summarizes current modeled values in the context of the product type — e.g., “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”.
Reset
The end of an outcome period. The fund closes out its current options package and opens a new period with a fresh cap and the same stated buffer.
Near Cap Condition
A factual classification used when a fund is at or near its current outcome-period ceiling. It is not an instruction to trade, and the report does not select a replacement ticker.
Implied Volatility (IV)
An options-market measure of expected variability, expressed as an annualized percentage. Outcome Radar shows current broker-derived readings and weekly VIX, VXN, and RVX history when available. IV can influence option premiums and future reset terms, but it is not a forecast or timing signal.
Executive Summary
The one-paragraph plain-English read at the top of each tab. Descriptive, not prescriptive; always ends with “For informational purposes, not investment advice.”
Save Layout
A per-user setting that remembers your preferred view of the report (active tab, open sections, filter chips, expanded summaries) and re-applies it every time you sign in. Available when viewing the report through Outcome Radar. Use the Save Layout button above the report to save, Reset Layout to clear.
Watchlist
A browser-saved display list of up to 10 tickers. Each card shows the fund’s current classification, remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. The watchlist changes presentation only and does not alter calculations, classifications, or substantive report content.