Outcome Radar - June 11, 2026
Today's analysis: 22 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 49 near cap. Total 74 signals.
Outcome
RadarTM
Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence
June 11, 2026
Independent Analysis · Not affiliated with any Fund Provider
315
ETFs Analyzed
22
Target / Extended
3
Uncapped Target
0
Accel Range
49
Near Cap
1 Mo T-Bill
3.74%
3 Mo T-Bill
3.73%
6 Mo T-Bill
3.75%
12 Mo T-Bill
3.77%
SPY IV
17.3%
QQQ IV
28.1%
IWM IV
25.4%
EFA IV
17.8%
EEM IV
38.6%
RSP IV
16.9%
General, impersonal research.
Not individualized advice or a recommendation. Modeled values are estimates and may differ from realized outcomes.
Filters, saved layouts, and watchlist selections change display preferences only; they do not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Showing all ETFs
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Intelligence Dashboard
7 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across the reset cycle's final stretch; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, including one SPY-linked fund showing 8.88% modeled remaining buffer and 344 days to reset. The other 42 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 🎯 Target / Extended Range 3 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~19.2% | ~7.5% | 354 | 0.0% | ~19.8% | ~15% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~18.5% | ~8.4% | 354 | 0.0% | ~19.1% | ~15% | |
| Extended Range |
FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~16.1% | ~8.9% | 344 | ~-0.9% | ~17.1% | ~19% |
BJUN
9% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
JUNT
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
FMAY
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 7 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~22.1% | 7 | ~-16.1% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~18.4% | 7 | ~-15.5% | ~9.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~14.3% | 7 | ~-13.2% | ~8.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~10.2% | 7 | ~-13.5% | ~18.8% | ~83% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.8% | ~11.9% | 19 | ~-12.7% | ~16.1% | ~82% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~10.6% | 19 | ~-13.2% | ~16.9% | ~78% | |
| Near Cap | FJULSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~11.7% | 36 | ~-11.7% | ~13.5% | ~72% |
TJUN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
QJUN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
FJUN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
RSJN
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
JULT
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
BJUL
9% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
FJUL
10% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 42 ▶
11 of 88 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across that group; 8 are in Target/Extended Range, including one QQQ-based fund showing a modeled 14.76% remaining buffer with 344 days to reset. The remaining 69 are mid-period, spread across SPY, EFA, IWM, and QQQ underlyings.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 💎 Target / Extended Range 8 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.4% | ~13.3% | 354 | 0.0% | ~14.8% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~19.7% | ~13.5% | 354 | 0.0% | ~20.3% | ~14% | |
| Extended Range |
KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~18.6% | ~14.1% | 354 | ~-0.9% | ~19.2% | ~16% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~12.9% | ~13.6% | 262 | ~-0.9% | ~18.0% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~16.4% | ~14.8% | 344 | ~-1.2% | ~17.4% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.8% | ~14.0% | 354 | ~-0.9% | ~15.3% | ~22% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.8% | ~13.9% | 344 | ~-1.0% | ~13.6% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.0% | ~13.8% | 344 | ~-1.0% | ~10.7% | ~29% |
PJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
NJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
KJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
IMAR
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
QMMY
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
IJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
GMAY
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
XMAY
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 11 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~27.1% | 19 | ~-12.1% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~21.9% | 7 | ~-9.6% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~20.4% | 7 | ~-11.1% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~22.4% | 19 | ~-14.5% | ~7.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~22.1% | 19 | ~-12.5% | ~8.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~18.4% | 7 | ~-11.5% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~21.9% | 50 | ~-13.9% | ~8.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~18.3% | 19 | ~-10.6% | ~8.3% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~18.9% | 36 | ~-8.8% | ~5.7% | ~89% | |
| Near Cap | GJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~17.6% | 36 | ~-10.0% | ~9.8% | ~83% | |
| Near Cap | IJULEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~16.2% | 19 | ~-11.2% | ~20.4% | ~80% |
EJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
XJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
GJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
KJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
NJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
YJUN
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
KAUG
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
PJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
XJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
GJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
IJUL
15% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 69 ▶
8 of 52 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across this annual-cycle category; 4 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a modeled 99% remaining buffer and 344 days to reset on an SPY underlying. The other 40 are mid-period. The deep buffer tier's structural trade-off—wider downside protection financed by tighter caps—is reflected in the Near-Cap count, where upside has largely been realized within the outcome period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 💪 Target / Extended Range 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
UJUNVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~14.6% | ~28.7% | 354 | ~-4.7% | ~15.0% | ~20% | |
| Target Range |
JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~12.3% | ~18.1% | 354 | 0.0% | ~12.7% | ~23% | |
| Extended Range |
DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.5% | ~23.9% | 344 | ~-6.0% | ~13.3% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.0% | ~99.0% | 344 | ~-1.0% | ~6.4% | ~37% |
UJUN
30% Ultra
Buffer
Buffer
Target
Range
▼
Range
JUNW
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
DMAY
25% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
MAYM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 8 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~66.5% | 7 | ~-6.6% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~28.3% | 7 | ~-15.3% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~24.4% | 7 | ~-2.9% | ~3.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~27.3% | 36 | ~-10.2% | ~8.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.5% | ~23.8% | 19 | ~-9.2% | ~10.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~65.3% | 36 | ~-6.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~30.9% | 19 | ~-14.7% | ~7.3% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | DJULSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~25.9% | 36 | ~-14.5% | ~9.8% | ~83% |
JUNM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
DJUN
25% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
SQMX
50% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QCJL
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
JULW
20% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
JULM
50% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
UJUL
30% Ultra
Buffer
Buffer
Near Cap
▼
DJUL
25% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 40 ▶
3 of 26 uncapped annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range; the remaining 23 are mid-period. The freshest Target/Extended Range fund shows a modeled 97.11% remaining buffer with 324 days to reset and a downside before buffer of -2.89%, reflecting a position near the reference asset's period-start level. The tab is predominantly SPY-referenced, with 2 EFA funds rounding out the 26.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 ⚡ Target / Extended Range 3 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Modeled Probability % |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 323 | ~-2.9% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
MAYZSPY10% Uncapped Buffer |
TrueShares™ | ~0.0% | ~97.1% | 324 | ~-2.9% | ~84% Partic. | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
JNEUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 354 | 0.0% | ~4.3% Spread | N/A |
MAYU
15%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Target
Range
▼
Range
MAYZ
10%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Extended
Range
▼
Range
JNEU
15%
Uncapped Buffer
Uncapped Buffer
Extended
Range
▼
Range
👀 Mid-Period Funds 23 ▶
2 of 30 funds are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest showing a 99.61% modeled remaining buffer and 354 days to reset; 2 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across their respective payoff curves; the other 26 are mid-period across a mix of annual and 2-year outcome periods, with 2 six-month funds also present.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 🛡 Target / Extended Range 2 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
ZJUNVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~99.6% | 354 | ~-0.4% | ~7.9% | ~30% | |
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.4% | ~50.4% | 309 | ~-1.5% | ~6.4% | ~45% |
ZJUN
100%
Protection
Protection
Target
Range
▼
Range
APXM
100% Buffer
Annual
Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 2 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~84.2% | 19 | ~-15.8% | ~1.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~93.7% | 19 | ~-6.3% | ~7.5% | >95% |
AJUL
100%
Protection
Protection
Near Cap
▼
ZJUL
100%
Protection
Protection
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 26 ▶
4 of 28 dual-direction funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across all-annual-cycle holdings; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a 12.62% modeled remaining buffer and 354 days to reset. The other 21 are mid-period, predominantly referencing SPY with a smaller VOO and QQQ sleeve.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 ↔ Target / Extended Range 3 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
DDTZVOODual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.8% | ~8.0% | 354 | 0.0% | ~16.3% | ~23% | |
| Target Range |
DDFZVOODual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~10.5% | ~12.6% | 354 | ~-0.2% | ~10.9% | ~31% | |
| Extended Range |
DLMYSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.9% | ~8.7% | 344 | ~-1.2% | ~13.7% | ~27% |
DDTZ
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
DDFZ
Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
Target
Range
▼
Range
DLMY
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 4 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~17.2% | 19 | ~-6.3% | ~3.6% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~11.2% | 19 | ~-5.1% | ~5.2% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~13.6% | 19 | ~-11.1% | ~5.8% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~20.9% | 19 | ~-7.9% | ~6.3% | ~47% |
DDNQ
Dual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
DDSQ
Dual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
DDTL
Dual
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
Near Cap
▼
DDFL
Dual
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 21 ▶
10 of 23 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across a mix of quarterly and 6-month cycles. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range — an SPY-based quarterly fund with 8.19% modeled remaining buffer and 172 days to reset, currently at 0.00% downside before buffer. The remaining 12 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 📅 Target / Extended Range 1 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~8.6% | ~8.2% | 172 | 0.0% | ~18.3% | ~22% |
SIXD
10% Buffer
6-Month
6-Month
Extended
Range
▼
Range
▲ Near Cap 10 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~28.0% | 19 | ~-3.6% | ~1.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~22.7% | 19 | ~-4.9% | ~5.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~16.2% | 19 | ~-7.3% | ~3.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKFIWM15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~23.3% | 19 | ~-4.1% | ~1.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BALTSPY20% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~27.1% | 19 | ~-2.4% | ~3.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | RBUFIWM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~17.4% | 19 | ~-5.8% | ~5.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~16.8% | 19 | ~-3.9% | ~5.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKVIWM5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~10.2% | 19 | ~-8.6% | ~13.6% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~10.4% | 19 | ~-5.8% | ~4.8% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | EALTVOO5-15% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~14.6% | 19 | ~-10.5% | ~8.3% | ~90% |
QBQF
15% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QBUF
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QBQV
5% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QBKF
15% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
BALT
20% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
RBUF
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
ZALT
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QBKV
5% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
QBSV
5% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
EALT
5-15% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 12 ▶
8 of 16 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with multiplier participation available from current levels; the remaining 8 are mid-period. The freshest at-threshold fund carries a 9% modeled buffer with 111 days remaining on a SPY-referenced annual cycle, currently showing 0.00% downside before buffer. No funds are Near Cap.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
🎯 🚀 Target / Extended Range 1 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~13.1% | ~7.0% | 81 | ~-1.2% | ~59.1% | ~5% |
BGLD
10% Buffer
Quarterly
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
Range
▲ Accelerated — Near Cap 7 ▼
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~0.0% | 19 | — | ~6.7% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | TWOXIVV2x Accelerated |
iShares™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 19 | — | ~8.6% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~9.0% | 19 | 0.0% | ~6.3% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 19 | — | ~8.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 19 | — | ~8.1% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~0.0% | 19 | — | ~6.3% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.4% | ~9.0% | 111 | 0.0% | ~11.0% | ~35% |
QTJL
3x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
TWOX
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XBJL
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XDQQ
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XDSQ
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XTJL
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
XBOC
2x
Accelerated
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼
👀 Mid-Period Funds 8 ▶
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
Below Buffer
Buffer Zone
Cap Ceiling
Target Range
Fund (now)
Index (now)
How to Use This Report
Intelligence Dashboard
The collapsible dashboard at the top summarizes current report metrics. Click the Intelligence Dashboard bar to expand or collapse it. Every ticker and volume box in the dashboard is clickable — click it and the report automatically switches tabs, expands the corresponding section, and scrolls to that ETF’s row (which briefly flashes amber to identify the row).
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs with scheduled resets within the next 8 days. At reset, the fund begins a new outcome period with newly established cap and buffer terms.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers as display selections. Each card shows the ETF’s current classification (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. The watchlist is saved in the browser and changes presentation only; it does not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs with scheduled resets within the next 8 days. At reset, the fund begins a new outcome period with newly established cap and buffer terms.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers as display selections. Each card shows the ETF’s current classification (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. The watchlist is saved in the browser and changes presentation only; it does not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
Tab Navigation
The report is organized into 8 tabs in this order: Standard 9%, Buffer 11-19%, Buffer 20%+, Uncapped, 100% Buffer, Dual Direction, 3&6 Month Buffers, and Specialty. Specialty includes accelerated products and other structures that do not fit the standard buffer tabs. Click a tab to see only the ETFs in that category.
Executive Summary (top of each tab)
Every tab opens with a small Executive Summary pill above the tables. Click it to expand a one-paragraph plain-English read on what’s happening in that tab tonight — how many funds sit in Target/Extended Range, how many are Near Cap, how much time remains, and how the rest of the tab is distributed. Language is descriptive, not prescriptive. Every summary ends with For informational purposes, not investment advice. on its own line.
Current Structural Note (under each chart)
When you open an ETF’s detail panel, the Current Structural Note sits just under the Outcome Profile chart. It is a factual line based on the product type and current modeled values — for example:
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Near cap condition · ~0.8% remaining cap · 45 days to reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Near cap condition · ~0.8% remaining cap · 45 days to reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Reading the Outcome Profile Chart
The chart plots one amber payoff line (net of fund fees) against index return. Colored bands mark the Target Range (green), Extended Range (amber), and Loss Zone (red). The white NOW dot marks today’s index level on the payoff curve and visually indicates the current modeled cap and buffer state. Dashed vertical reference lines mark the BUFFER, START, and CAP levels.
Expand Report Sections
Within each tab, ETFs are grouped into Target / Extended Range (closest to original starting parameters), Near Cap (approaching the current period ceiling), and Mid-Period Funds (the remaining classifications for that buffer type). Click the section header to expand or collapse it. Near Cap sections start open to display current structural conditions; Mid-Period Funds starts collapsed.
Near Cap Funds
When an ETF is approaching its cap, the Current Structural Note shows “Near cap condition · [remaining cap] · [days] to reset.” This is a factual classification, not an instruction to trade. The publication does not identify a specific replacement ticker for any individual fund. The database and filters provide generally available comparisons by underlying index, buffer, period, and current metrics.
Compare Current Metrics
Click any column header on desktop to sort that section. On mobile, use the sort bar below each table. Distance from Target Range orders funds by proximity to the original starting-price range, Cap Yield orders the displayed annualized remaining-cap values, and Days orders scheduled reset timing.
Use Filters to Narrow Down
The provider, period, and status chips at the top let you isolate specific fund families, time horizons, or classification types. The ticker search box lets you jump directly to a specific ETF regardless of tab.
Save Your Layout
When viewing the report through Outcome Radar, a Save Layout button sits just above the report. It remembers which tab is active, which sections are open or collapsed, which filter chips are on, and which executive summaries are expanded. Reset Layout clears the saved view and returns the report to its default state. This subscriber-specific setting changes presentation only; it does not alter data, calculations, classifications, or substantive content.
View Details & Payoff Curves
Click "View" on any ETF row to open a side panel with the modeled payoff curve, key metrics, and current period visualization.
Toggle Quick Scan Mode
The Full Sweep / Quick Scan toggle at the top right changes the displayed columns. Quick Scan keeps Status, Ticker, Provider, Days, and Cap Yield while hiding secondary metrics.
Section Guide
Target / Extended Range — ETFs trading closest to their original starting-price range. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown for each fund. Sorted by distance from target range.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Modeled Acceleration Range — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) classified by their current position relative to the modeled multiplier threshold and ceiling.
Dual Direction — ETFs with modeled participation in both positive and negative index moves.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Modeled Acceleration Range — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) classified by their current position relative to the modeled multiplier threshold and ceiling.
Dual Direction — ETFs with modeled participation in both positive and negative index moves.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.
Glossary of Terms
Remaining Cap (Rem. Cap)
The modeled fund return remaining before the current outcome-period ceiling. All values are net of fund fees.
Remaining Buffer (Rem. Buf)
The amount of modeled index-side decline still covered by the fund’s stated buffer before additional fund loss begins.
Days
Calendar days left until the outcome period resets. At reset, the fund starts a new cap and buffer cycle.
DBB (Downside Before Buffer)
The amount of fund loss before the buffer starts.
Cap Yield (Cap Yld)
The remaining cap expressed as an annualized return. Lets you compare ETFs with different time horizons on equal footing.
Modeled Probability %
A derived ratio expressing the option-market-implied likelihood that the underlying index will reach the cap level over the remaining outcome period. Calculated from current implied volatility and time remaining using a standard Black-Scholes model. This is a mathematical observation of what the options market currently implies, not a forecast, prediction, or recommendation by Outcome Radar. The value changes as market conditions change.
Target Range
The fund is trading closest to its original starting-price range after the fund fee. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown separately in the report. The range is shown as the narrow green band on the Outcome Profile chart.
Extended Range
The fund is near, but slightly outside, the tightest starting-price range. Current modeled Remaining Cap and Remaining Buffer values are shown separately in the report. The range is shown as the wider amber band on the chart.
Near Cap
The fund is at or near its maximum return for the period. Little upside remains, but downside risk is still present.
Modeled Acceleration Range
The current modeled range around a leveraged ETF’s multiplier threshold. The classification describes the fund’s position relative to its threshold and ceiling; it is not a recommendation.
% Cap Used / % Buffer Used
How much of the original cap or buffer has already been consumed by index movement since the period started.
NOW Marker
The white dot on the Outcome Profile chart, positioned on the payoff curve at today’s index level. It visually marks the fund’s current modeled position.
Current Structural Note
The one-line factual strip under each chart that summarizes current modeled values in the context of the product type — e.g., “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”.
Reset
The end of an outcome period. The fund closes out its current options package and opens a new period with a fresh cap and the same stated buffer.
Near Cap Condition
A factual classification used when a fund is at or near its current outcome-period ceiling. It is not an instruction to trade, and the report does not select a replacement ticker.
Implied Volatility (IV)
An options-market measure of expected variability, expressed as an annualized percentage. Outcome Radar shows current broker-derived readings and weekly VIX, VXN, and RVX history when available. IV can influence option premiums and future reset terms, but it is not a forecast or timing signal.
Executive Summary
The one-paragraph plain-English read at the top of each tab. Descriptive, not prescriptive; always ends with “For informational purposes, not investment advice.”
Save Layout
A per-user setting that remembers your preferred view of the report (active tab, open sections, filter chips, expanded summaries) and re-applies it every time you sign in. Available when viewing the report through Outcome Radar. Use the Save Layout button above the report to save, Reset Layout to clear.
Watchlist
A browser-saved display list of up to 10 tickers. Each card shows the fund’s current classification, remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. The watchlist changes presentation only and does not alter calculations, classifications, or substantive report content.