Outcome Radar - June 4, 2026
Today's analysis: 15 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 53 near cap. Total 69 signals.
7 of 52 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressing toward zero across this annual-cycle group — existing holders may want to evaluate their positions ahead of reset. 2 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a full 9.13% buffer and 361 days remaining. The other 43 are mid-period; on a pullback, some could move back toward Target Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~17.1% | ~8.2% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~17.3% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~16.6% | ~9.1% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~16.8% | ~19% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.6% | 14 | ~-16.1% | ~0.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~20.5% | 14 | ~-15.5% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~16.1% | 14 | ~-13.2% | ~3.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.6% | ~13.6% | 26 | ~-12.9% | ~7.9% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~12.2% | 26 | ~-13.6% | ~7.2% | ~87% | |
| Near Cap | FJULSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~13.3% | 43 | ~-12.1% | ~8.1% | ~83% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~10.7% | 14 | ~-13.5% | ~10.9% | ~79% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
12 of 88 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 5 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a 14.54% buffer and 361 days remaining against a QQQ underlying. The remaining 71 are mid-period. On a pullback, some of those mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~18.3% | ~14.3% | 361 | ~-1.2% | ~18.5% | ~17% | |
| Extended Range |
NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~17.7% | ~14.5% | 361 | ~-0.7% | ~17.9% | ~18% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~12.7% | ~13.5% | 269 | ~-1.1% | ~17.2% | ~21% | |
| Extended Range |
IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.7% | ~14.1% | 361 | ~-1.0% | ~14.8% | ~22% | |
| Extended Range |
PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~12.9% | ~14.2% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~13.0% | ~25% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~28.6% | 26 | ~-12.0% | ~5.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~23.7% | 14 | ~-9.6% | ~3.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~22.2% | 14 | ~-11.1% | ~2.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~24.0% | 26 | ~-12.7% | ~4.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~22.7% | 26 | ~-14.5% | ~6.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NAUGQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~23.0% | 57 | ~-12.2% | ~6.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~18.6% | 14 | ~-11.5% | ~5.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~22.1% | 57 | ~-14.0% | ~6.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~20.0% | 26 | ~-10.6% | ~4.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~20.7% | 43 | ~-8.8% | ~4.7% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | GJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~19.3% | 43 | ~-10.2% | ~6.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | IJULEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~16.6% | 26 | ~-11.1% | ~17.5% | ~77% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
8 of 52 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressing toward zero as those funds approach their reset cycle — existing holders may want to evaluate their positions. 3 are in Target/Extended Range, including one SPY-based fund with 351 days remaining and a full buffer still largely intact, just 1.43% downside before protection engages. The other 41 are mid-period across this all-annual category, predominantly SPY-based.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
UJUNVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~13.2% | ~29.2% | 361 | ~-5.8% | ~13.3% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~11.1% | ~19.1% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~11.2% | ~28% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~98.6% | 351 | ~-1.4% | ~5.8% | ~42% |
Buffer
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~67.2% | 14 | ~-6.5% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~29.7% | 14 | ~-15.3% | ~3.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~26.3% | 14 | ~-2.8% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~29.1% | 43 | ~-10.3% | ~5.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.5% | ~25.4% | 26 | ~-9.3% | ~6.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~66.0% | 43 | ~-6.3% | ~3.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~32.2% | 26 | ~-14.7% | ~3.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJULSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~27.3% | 43 | ~-14.7% | ~6.4% | ~90% |
Annual
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
1 of 26 uncapped funds is in Target/Extended Range — a SPY-based annual-cycle fund with a 14.27% buffer and 361 days remaining, currently 0.79% above its buffer threshold. The other 25 are mid-period. No funds are Near Cap tonight.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JNEUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 361 | ~-0.8% | ~4.3% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
2 of 30 are approaching the top of their payoff curves and the reset cycle; existing holders may evaluate their positions. 1 is in Target/Extended Range — the freshest has 99.10% buffer intact with 361 days remaining. The other 27 are mid-period across 20 annual, 8 two-year, and 2 six-month funds.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
ZJUNVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.2% | ~99.1% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~7.2% | ~35% |
Protection
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~84.3% | 26 | ~-15.7% | ~2.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~93.8% | 26 | ~-6.2% | ~5.9% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
4 of 28 dual-direction funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 2 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a 14.02% buffer and 361 days remaining. The other 22 are mid-period. On a pullback, some of those mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
DDTZVOODual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.0% | ~8.7% | 361 | ~-1.4% | ~14.1% | ~26% | |
| Extended Range |
DDFZVOODual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~9.6% | ~14.0% | 361 | ~-1.1% | ~9.7% | ~33% |
Direction 10% Annual
Range
Direction 15% Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~19.6% | 26 | ~-6.4% | ~1.3% | ~49% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~13.2% | 26 | ~-5.2% | ~2.1% | ~49% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~15.4% | 26 | ~-11.2% | ~2.9% | ~49% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~22.7% | 26 | ~-7.9% | ~3.9% | ~48% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 15% Annual
11 of 23 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves and reset cycles — existing holders may want to evaluate their positions given how quickly these shorter cycles recalibrate. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, carrying a 9.50% buffer with 179 days remaining and only 0.58% downside before that buffer engages. The remaining 11 are mid-period across 17 quarterly and 6 six-month resets.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~7.5% | ~9.5% | 179 | ~-0.6% | ~15.3% | ~29% |
6-Month
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~30.1% | 26 | ~-3.6% | ~0.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~24.9% | 26 | ~-5.0% | ~2.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~18.7% | 26 | ~-7.3% | ~2.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BALTSPY20% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~28.9% | 26 | ~-2.4% | ~2.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EBUFEEM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~19.2% | 26 | ~-6.8% | ~9.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKFIWM15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~23.8% | 26 | ~-4.0% | ~2.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~18.7% | 26 | ~-4.0% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | RBUFIWM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~17.8% | 26 | ~-5.8% | ~3.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~12.4% | 26 | ~-6.0% | ~1.8% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | EALTVOO5-15% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~16.4% | 26 | ~-10.6% | ~5.2% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | QBKVIWM5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~10.9% | 26 | ~-8.4% | ~13.2% | ~89% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
10 of 16 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with 2x upside participation available against the full stated buffer—6 are mid-period. The underlying mix spans SPY, QQQ, VOO, and a small allocation to GLD and IVV; the lone GLD-referenced fund at threshold carries a 9.31% buffer with 88 days remaining and -4.48% downside before that buffer engages. No funds are Near Cap tonight.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~9.4% | ~9.3% | 88 | ~-4.5% | ~38.9% | ~17% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~0.0% | 26 | — | ~3.9% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | TWOXIVV2x Accelerated |
iShares™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 26 | — | ~6.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~9.0% | 26 | 0.0% | ~4.2% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 26 | — | ~5.2% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 26 | — | ~5.1% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~0.0% | 26 | — | ~4.4% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.6% | ~0.0% | 118 | — | ~11.1% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~9.0% | 118 | 0.0% | ~9.1% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.4% | ~0.0% | 118 | — | ~10.6% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.