Outcome Radar - June 6, 2026
Today's analysis: 25 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 45 near cap. Total 74 signals.
6 of 52 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves and may warrant position review by existing holders; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a full 9.02% buffer and 350 days remaining against SPY. The other 43 are mid-period across this all-annual category. On a pullback, several mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~19.4% | ~7.7% | 360 | 0.0% | ~19.7% | ~15% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~18.5% | ~8.4% | 360 | 0.0% | ~18.7% | ~15% | |
| Extended Range |
FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~16.3% | ~9.0% | 350 | ~-0.8% | ~17.0% | ~19% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~19.4% | 13 | ~-16.1% | ~0.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~17.4% | 13 | ~-15.3% | ~10.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~14.3% | 13 | ~-13.2% | ~6.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.0% | ~12.1% | 25 | ~-12.6% | ~14.7% | ~79% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~10.7% | 25 | ~-13.1% | ~15.6% | ~75% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~9.6% | 13 | ~-13.5% | ~12.1% | ~68% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
10 of 88 annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range; 9 are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant position review by existing holders; the remaining 69 are mid-period. The freshest Target/Extended Range fund carries a 14.47% buffer with 329 days remaining on an IWM underlying, with the reference asset needing to fall 1.64% before that buffer begins absorbing losses. On further upside, additional mid-period funds could migrate toward the Near-Cap group.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.3% | ~12.7% | 268 | 0.0% | ~19.4% | ~16% | |
| Target Range |
QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~17.3% | ~14.0% | 350 | ~-0.5% | ~18.0% | ~18% | |
| Target Range |
IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~16.4% | ~13.3% | 360 | 0.0% | ~16.6% | ~18% | |
| Target Range |
PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.4% | ~13.3% | 360 | 0.0% | ~14.6% | ~21% | |
| Extended Range |
KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~20.6% | ~13.2% | 360 | 0.0% | ~20.9% | ~12% | |
| Extended Range |
KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~16.7% | ~14.5% | 329 | ~-1.6% | ~18.5% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~17.2% | ~14.4% | 350 | ~-1.8% | ~17.9% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.9% | ~14.0% | 329 | ~-1.0% | ~16.6% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.8% | ~13.8% | 350 | ~-1.0% | ~13.4% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.1% | ~13.9% | 350 | ~-0.9% | ~10.5% | ~29% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~24.8% | 25 | ~-11.8% | ~10.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~22.0% | 13 | ~-9.5% | ~6.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~20.5% | 13 | ~-11.0% | ~4.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~20.5% | 25 | ~-14.4% | ~8.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~21.1% | 25 | ~-12.4% | ~9.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~20.2% | 56 | ~-13.6% | ~10.0% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.1% | 13 | ~-11.1% | ~15.4% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~18.4% | 25 | ~-10.3% | ~9.6% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~19.0% | 42 | ~-8.7% | ~6.3% | ~87% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
7 of 52 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant a position review by existing holders; 6 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a full buffer and 350 days remaining on an SPY-based annual cycle. The other 39 are mid-period. On further upside, additional mid-period funds could migrate toward the Near-Cap group.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
UJUNVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~14.6% | ~28.7% | 360 | ~-4.6% | ~14.8% | ~20% | |
| Target Range |
JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~12.4% | ~18.2% | 360 | 0.0% | ~12.5% | ~23% | |
| Extended Range |
DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.6% | ~23.9% | 350 | ~-6.0% | ~13.1% | ~25% | |
| Extended Range |
UMAYVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~10.7% | ~30.0% | 329 | ~-6.7% | ~11.9% | ~31% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~9.5% | ~20.4% | 329 | ~-1.6% | ~10.5% | ~34% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.1% | ~99.1% | 350 | ~-0.9% | ~6.3% | ~37% |
Buffer
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Buffer
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~66.5% | 13 | ~-6.5% | ~2.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~28.3% | 13 | ~-15.3% | ~5.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~24.4% | 13 | ~-2.8% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~26.4% | 42 | ~-10.0% | ~8.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~65.3% | 42 | ~-6.2% | ~4.3% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.6% | ~23.9% | 25 | ~-9.1% | ~9.1% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~31.0% | 25 | ~-14.6% | ~7.2% | ~92% |
Annual
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
4 of 26 uncapped annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range tonight; the other 22 are mid-period. The freshest of the four carries a 14.55% buffer with 209 days remaining, giving shareholders roughly 1.68% of additional reference-asset decline before the buffer engages. No funds are Near Cap. On a pullback, mid-period funds could migrate into the Target/Extended Range group, widening tonight's review set.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.6% | 209 | ~-1.7% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
ARLIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 299 | ~-3.3% | ~4.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 329 | ~-3.5% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
JNEUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 360 | 0.0% | ~4.3% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
2 of 30 are approaching the top of their payoff curves and may warrant position review by existing holders; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, including one fund with a full 99.63% buffer intact and 360 days remaining. The other 25 are mid-period across a mix of annual and two-year outcome periods.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
ZJUNVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~99.6% | 360 | ~-0.4% | ~7.8% | ~30% | |
| Extended Range |
ZMAYVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~6.0% | ~98.7% | 329 | ~-1.3% | ~6.6% | ~42% | |
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.4% | ~50.4% | 315 | ~-1.5% | ~6.3% | ~45% |
Protection
Range
Protection
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~84.3% | 25 | ~-15.7% | ~1.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~93.8% | 25 | ~-6.2% | ~6.9% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
4 of 28 dual-direction funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves and may warrant review by existing holders; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a 12.70% buffer and 360 days remaining. The remaining 21 are mid-period. On a pullback, that mid-period group could shift the Target/Extended Range count meaningfully given the annual-cycle structure across the tab.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
DDTZVOODual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.9% | ~8.0% | 360 | 0.0% | ~16.2% | ~23% | |
| Target Range |
DDFZVOODual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~10.7% | ~12.7% | 360 | ~-0.1% | ~10.8% | ~31% | |
| Extended Range |
DLMYSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
First Trust™ | ~13.1% | ~8.8% | 350 | ~-1.0% | ~13.7% | ~27% |
Direction 10% Annual
Range
Direction 15% Annual
Range
Direction 10% Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~15.9% | 25 | ~-6.3% | ~3.1% | ~49% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~11.2% | 25 | ~-5.0% | ~5.0% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~20.9% | 25 | ~-7.9% | ~5.3% | ~47% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~13.7% | 25 | ~-10.9% | ~7.4% | ~46% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
10 of 23 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves with remaining cap compressing toward zero—the position-review group for existing holders this cycle. The other 13 are mid-period across a mix of 17 quarterly and 6 six-month resets, with no funds in Target/Extended Range tonight. On a pullback, that mid-period group would be worth monitoring for movement toward fuller buffer availability.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~26.9% | 25 | ~-3.5% | ~1.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~21.6% | 25 | ~-4.8% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~14.9% | 25 | ~-7.3% | ~2.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BALTSPY20% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~27.1% | 25 | ~-2.3% | ~3.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKFIWM15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~21.1% | 25 | ~-4.0% | ~2.8% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~16.8% | 25 | ~-3.9% | ~5.3% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.4% | ~10.5% | 25 | ~-5.7% | ~5.5% | ~87% | |
| Near Cap | EALTVOO5-15% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~14.7% | 25 | ~-10.4% | ~9.2% | ~87% | |
| Near Cap | EBUFEEM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~14.1% | 25 | ~-6.8% | ~9.5% | ~83% | |
| Near Cap | QBKVIWM5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~7.7% | 25 | ~-8.7% | ~9.6% | ~72% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
7 of 16 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with 9 mid-period; no funds are Near Cap tonight. The underlying mix spans SPY, QQQ, VOO, and a handful of single-commodity and large-cap equivalents. On a pullback, the mid-period group would be worth monitoring for threshold resets across the 13 annual-cycle funds.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 25 | — | ~8.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | TWOXIVV2x Accelerated |
iShares™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 25 | — | ~6.0% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~9.0% | 25 | 0.0% | ~5.8% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~0.0% | 25 | — | ~10.1% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~0.0% | 25 | — | ~9.6% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 25 | — | ~6.4% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~9.0% | 117 | 0.0% | ~11.0% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Reset review”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.