Outcome Radar - June 9, 2026
Today's analysis: 24 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 45 near cap. Total 70 signals.
6 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across the reset cycle; 3 are in Target/Extended Range, including one SPY-linked fund showing a modeled 8.99% remaining buffer and 346 days remaining. The other 43 are mid-period, spread across SPY, QQQ, IVV, EEM, and RSP underlyings.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~19.4% | ~7.6% | 356 | 0.0% | ~19.8% | ~14% | |
| Extended Range |
JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~18.8% | ~8.5% | 356 | 0.0% | ~19.2% | ~15% | |
| Extended Range |
FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~16.4% | ~9.0% | 346 | ~-0.8% | ~17.3% | ~19% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~20.6% | 9 | ~-16.0% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~17.5% | 9 | ~-15.5% | ~7.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~14.2% | 9 | ~-13.2% | ~6.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.0% | ~12.0% | 21 | ~-12.6% | ~17.4% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~10.2% | 9 | ~-13.3% | ~23.9% | ~78% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~10.6% | 21 | ~-13.2% | ~16.7% | ~77% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
9 of 88 Buffer 11–19% funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across this annual-cycle category; 8 are in Target/Extended Range, including one QQQ-based fund showing a 14.40% modeled remaining buffer and 346 days to reset. The remaining 71 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~19.7% | ~13.4% | 356 | 0.0% | ~20.2% | ~14% | |
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.9% | ~12.9% | 264 | ~-0.1% | ~19.2% | ~17% | |
| Target Range |
QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~17.3% | ~14.4% | 346 | ~-0.5% | ~18.2% | ~18% | |
| Target Range |
IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.9% | ~13.5% | 356 | 0.0% | ~16.4% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.6% | ~14.2% | 325 | ~-1.3% | ~16.4% | ~21% | |
| Extended Range |
PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.5% | ~13.3% | 356 | 0.0% | ~14.9% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.9% | ~13.8% | 346 | ~-0.9% | ~13.6% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.2% | ~13.9% | 346 | ~-0.9% | ~10.7% | ~29% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~25.8% | 21 | ~-11.9% | ~9.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~21.8% | 9 | ~-9.6% | ~3.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~20.4% | 9 | ~-11.1% | ~5.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~21.2% | 21 | ~-14.4% | ~8.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~21.3% | 21 | ~-12.4% | ~9.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~17.2% | 9 | ~-11.4% | ~8.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.3% | ~20.8% | 52 | ~-13.8% | ~9.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~18.3% | 21 | ~-10.5% | ~9.0% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~18.9% | 38 | ~-8.7% | ~6.6% | ~88% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
8 of 52 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across this annual-cycle category; 6 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a modeled 99.16% remaining buffer and 346 days to reset. The other 38 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~12.5% | ~18.2% | 356 | 0.0% | ~12.8% | ~23% | |
| Extended Range |
UJUNVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~14.8% | ~28.9% | 356 | ~-4.5% | ~15.2% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.7% | ~24.0% | 346 | ~-5.8% | ~13.4% | ~24% | |
| Extended Range |
UMAYVOO30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~10.7% | ~29.9% | 325 | ~-6.7% | ~12.0% | ~31% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~9.4% | ~20.3% | 325 | ~-1.7% | ~10.6% | ~33% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.2% | ~99.2% | 346 | ~-0.8% | ~6.5% | ~37% |
Annual
Range
Buffer
Range
Annual
Range
Buffer
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~66.5% | 9 | ~-6.5% | ~5.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~28.3% | 9 | ~-15.3% | ~6.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~24.4% | 9 | ~-2.8% | ~3.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~26.6% | 38 | ~-10.0% | ~9.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.6% | ~23.8% | 21 | ~-9.2% | ~9.9% | ~95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~65.3% | 38 | ~-6.2% | ~4.1% | ~95% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~31.0% | 21 | ~-14.5% | ~9.4% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | DJULSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.1% | ~26.0% | 38 | ~-14.4% | ~10.5% | ~82% |
Annual
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
1 of 26 annual-cycle uncapped funds is in Target/Extended Range; the other 25 are mid-period. The Target/Extended Range fund carries a 14.56% modeled remaining buffer with 205 days to reset and a -2.03% downside before buffer on its EFA reference asset.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Modeled Probability % |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.6% | 205 | ~-2.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
3 of 30 funds are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a modeled 99.69% remaining buffer and 356 days to reset; 2 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero; the other 25 are mid-period. The category spans 20 annual, 8 two-year, and 2 six-month outcome periods, split across SPY, VOO, and IVV as reference assets.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
ZJUNVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~7.8% | ~99.7% | 356 | ~-0.3% | ~8.0% | ~30% | |
| Extended Range |
ZMAYVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~6.0% | ~98.8% | 325 | ~-1.2% | ~6.8% | ~42% | |
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~50.3% | 311 | ~-1.6% | ~6.3% | ~45% |
Protection
Range
Protection
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~84.3% | 21 | ~-15.7% | ~3.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~93.8% | 21 | ~-6.2% | ~7.3% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
3 of 28 dual-direction funds are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest showing a modeled 12.66% remaining buffer and 356 days remaining in its annual cycle. 4 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across their payoff curves; the other 21 are mid-period. The tab is predominantly SPY-referenced, with a smaller VOO sleeve accounting for the Target/Extended Range fund noted above.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
DDTZVOODual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.8% | ~7.8% | 356 | 0.0% | ~16.1% | ~23% | |
| Target Range |
DDFZVOODual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~10.7% | ~12.7% | 356 | ~-0.1% | ~10.9% | ~31% | |
| Extended Range |
DLMYSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
First Trust™ | ~13.3% | ~9.0% | 346 | ~-0.8% | ~14.1% | ~26% |
Direction 10% Annual
Range
Direction 15% Annual
Range
Direction 10% Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~11.1% | 21 | ~-5.1% | ~3.8% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~16.3% | 21 | ~-6.2% | ~4.7% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~21.0% | 21 | ~-7.7% | ~9.0% | ~46% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~13.7% | 21 | ~-10.8% | ~9.6% | ~46% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
9 of 23 funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across a mix of quarterly and 6-month cycles; 1 is in Target/Extended Range, and 13 are mid-period. The sole Target/Extended Range fund carries a 6.86% modeled remaining buffer with 73 days to reset on an SPY underlying, with the reference asset currently 0.37% above the buffer threshold.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
FHDGSPY5% or 7.5% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~4.2% | ~6.9% | 73 | ~-0.4% | ~21.1% | ~32% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~27.1% | 21 | ~-3.6% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~21.8% | 21 | ~-4.8% | ~6.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.4% | ~15.4% | 21 | ~-7.1% | ~6.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BALTSPY20% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~27.1% | 21 | ~-2.4% | ~3.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKFIWM15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~22.1% | 21 | ~-3.9% | ~5.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~16.7% | 21 | ~-3.9% | ~5.2% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | RBUFIWM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.1% | 21 | ~-5.6% | ~8.5% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.4% | ~10.4% | 21 | ~-5.8% | ~6.3% | ~89% | |
| Near Cap | EALTVOO5-15% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~14.7% | 21 | ~-10.4% | ~10.6% | ~89% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
7 of 16 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with multiplier upside structures fully intact from current levels; the remaining 9 are mid-period. No funds are Near Cap. The freshest at-threshold fund carries a 9% modeled buffer with 113 days remaining on its quarterly cycle, referenced to SPY.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Modeled Probability %⇅ |
View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 21 | — | ~8.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | TWOXIVV2x Accelerated |
iShares™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 21 | — | ~8.7% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~9.0% | 21 | 0.0% | ~7.0% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 21 | — | ~10.9% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 21 | — | ~9.7% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 21 | — | ~11.1% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~9.0% | 113 | 0.0% | ~11.2% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their target range. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside that band for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Compares modeled upside with modeled downside on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A 5x ratio means the modeled gain is five times the modeled loss in that scenario. Higher values indicate greater modeled asymmetry, not a recommendation. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs with scheduled resets within the next 8 days. At reset, the fund begins a new outcome period with newly established cap and buffer terms.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers as display selections. Each card shows the ETF’s current classification (Target Range, Extended Range, Near Cap, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. The watchlist is saved in the browser and changes presentation only; it does not alter calculations, classifications, or report content.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — Weekly history for VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000), with current end-of-day broker-derived readings. Volatility influences option premiums and may affect future reset caps, but the relationship is not one-for-one and the chart is not a timing signal. If historical data is temporarily unavailable, the report clearly labels the widget as a current snapshot rather than drawing an empty graph.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “~14.2% modeled buffer remaining · ~13.7% remaining cap · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Near cap condition · ~0.8% remaining cap · 45 days to reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return for the current outcome period. Remaining upside is limited while downside exposure can remain; no replacement ticker is selected by the report.
Modeled Acceleration Range — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) classified by their current position relative to the modeled multiplier threshold and ceiling.
Dual Direction — ETFs with modeled participation in both positive and negative index moves.
Mid-Period Funds — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.