Daily Report

Outcome Radar - March 25, 2026

Today's analysis: 54 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 12 near cap. Total 66 signals.

Outcome Radar - Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence - March 25, 2026

HOW TO USE THIS REPORT

A quick walkthrough of every feature in your nightly Outcome Radar™ report

Step 1 of 8

Welcome to Outcome Radar

Every night, Outcome Radar™ scans the entire universe of Defined Outcome ETFs and surfaces the ones that matter most.

Three fund providers are tracked and color-coded throughout:

Innovator™ First Trust™ AllianzIM™

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

📡

OUTCOME RADAR

NIGHTLY DEFINED OUTCOME INTELLIGENCE

Step 2 of 8

The Stats Bar & Market Data

Five key numbers at the top give you an instant pulse check. Scan these first every time you open the report.

Near Entry tells you how many ETFs are near their starting price — fund has reset or is back to its original starting point which could provide more favorable risk/reward characteristics. Near Cap flags funds hitting their ceiling.

Below that, T-Bill yields are your risk-free benchmark, and Implied Volatility shows conditions for each tracked index.

Pro Tip: A higher "Near Entry" count could provide more compelling longer term or tactical opportunities!

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

278

ETFs Analyzed

Near Entry

Uncapped

Accel. Zone

Near Cap

Step 3 of 8

The Opportunity Score

The flagship feature — a proprietary that goes up to a 10.0 composite metric ranking every ETF by mathematical favorability based on the 3 metrics.

It combines three factors: Excess Upside (cap yield minus T-Bill rate), Cap Probability (likelihood of reaching the cap), and Buffer Quality (how much protection remains).

Use the colored filter pills to instantly filter the entire report by score threshold.

Quick Filter: Click "≥7" for top-tier only. "Show All" resets.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

★ OPPORTUNITY SCORE

≥7 ≥5 ≥2 ≥0 <0 N/A Show All

Step 4 of 8

Filters & Search Tools

The toolbar gives you powerful filtering. All filters work in combination to narrow results.

Provider — Toggle Innovator™, First Trust™, or AllianzIM™ on/off.

Status — Target Range, Extended Range, Near Entry, Accel Zone, Near Cap.

Period — Quarterly, Semi-Annual, Annual, or 2-Year.

Plus ticker search and Data Heavy / Lite toggle.

Pro Tip #1: If an ETF does not fall into any category it WILL NOT show up in the ticker search.

Pro Tip #2: Data Lite removes a lot of the statistics and when used with the Target and Extended Ranges allows for a much quicker analysis.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Provider

Innovator™ × First Trust™ × AllianzIM™ ×

Status

✓ Target Range ✓ Extended Range

🔍 Search ticker

Step 5 of 8

The Near Entry Table

The most actionable section. ETFs here are near their starting price — giving you full cap upside with full buffer protection.

Click any column header to sort. Sorting by Score descending is the fastest way to find top opportunities.

Look for: Scores 7+, high cap yield, high probability, and intact buffers (low DBB).

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

🎯 Near Original Entry 50

Status	Ticker	Score	Cap Yld
Extended	KJAN	10.0	~20.8%
Target	IJAN	8.4	~17.9%

Step 6 of 8

ETF Outcome Profiler

All calculations are estimates and are after fees.

Click any ETF row to open a slide-in detail panel showing the complete picture:

Outcome Profile — Visual cap ceiling, buffer zone, and current index position.

Key Metrics — Cap Used, Buffer Used, Cap Yield, Probability, Score.

Provider Link — Direct link to the fund's page for more info.

Close the panel with the × button, clicking outside, or pressing Escape.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

KJAN

Innovator ETFs™ · IWM – 15% Buffer

Extended Range

Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration

Target Range

Extended Range

Loss Zone

Before Fees

After Fees

~3%

% Cap Used

~5%

% Buffer Used

10.0

Score

Step 7 of 8

Report Sections & Dashboard

The report is organized into color-coded sections from most to least actionable. Below the tables, the Intelligence Dashboard provides advanced analytics.

Asymmetry Ratio — Upside vs downside on a ±10% move. 15x means $15 gain per $1 risk.

Upcoming Resets — ETFs approaching their reset date for new caps/buffers.

Top Cap Yield — Pure ranking by annualized cap yield.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

🎯 Near Original Entry

💎 Ultra Buffer Sweet Spot

⚡ Uncapped Buffer

🚀 Acceleration

📈 Near Cap

Step 8 of 8

You're Ready

That's everything! Here's a quick nightly workflow:

1. Check the Stats Bar — glance at Near Entry count.

2. Use Score Filters — click "≥7" for top-tier.

3. Scan Near Entry — sort by Score descending.

4. Open ETF Outcome Profiler — review outcome profile & key metrics.

5. Check the Dashboard — asymmetry ratios & upcoming resets.

Close this tutorial and the ? button at the bottom right will always be there if you need it again.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. The Opportunity Score is model-based and not predictive of future performance. Not investment advice.

✅

YOU'RE ALL SET

Close this overlay and start exploring the report.

278

ETFs Analyzed

Near Entry

Uncapped

Accel. Zone

Near Cap

1 Mo T-Bill

3.64%

3 Mo T-Bill

3.65%

6 Mo T-Bill

3.53%

12 Mo T-Bill

3.58%

SPY IV

20.6%

QQQ IV

23.7%

IWM IV

30.0%

EFA IV

24.5%

EEM IV

32.8%

RSP IV

19.7%

★ Opportunity Score^*

≥7 ≥5 ≥2 ≥0 <0 N/A Show All

Show Details ▼

⚠ The score filter above controls which ETFs are visible across all sections. Tap a score level to adjust, or “Show All” to see everything.

The Opportunity Score is a proprietary mathematical model designed to provide a uniform quantitative comparison of Defined Outcome ETFs with varying parameters. The scale is 0–10; a higher score identifies a mathematically favorable profile based on modeled outcomes at expiration.

Methodology

The score is computed from three independently derived components:

1. Excess Upside

Remaining annualized cap yield minus the risk-free rate (current T-Bill yield). Measures how much potential return exceeds a zero-risk alternative if held to expiration.

2. Cap Probability

Statistical estimate of the likelihood the index will reach the cap level by expiration. Derived from implied volatility and time remaining using a log-normal distribution model.

3. Buffer Quality

Evaluates how much downside protection remains intact relative to the original buffer level. A fully intact buffer contributes more favorably to the composite score.

These three components are combined into a weighted composite normalized to a 0–10 scale. The score applies only to standard buffered entry sections (Near Original Entry, Ultra Buffer, 100% Protection). Acceleration Zone, Dual Direction, and Near Cap sections are exempt because their payoff mechanics differ materially from standard capped-buffer structures.

Important Disclosure

All mathematical observations presented in this report are based on modeled outcomes at expiration using current market data. They are hypothetical, do not reflect actual trading results, and are not predictive of future performance. The model does not account for intra-period price volatility, secondary market liquidity, bid-ask spreads, or early exit scenarios. Different models, assumptions, or time horizons may produce materially different results. This score is provided for informational comparison purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Showing all ETFs

▼ Intelligence Dashboard

#	Ticker	Idx Ret.	Up 10%	Dn 10%	Ratio
1	PNOV	-3.7%	+6.6%	-0.5%	13.3x
2	NVBW	-3.7%	+6.1%	-0.5%	12.3x
3	PDEC	-3.9%	+6.7%	-0.5%	12.3x
4	DECW	-3.9%	+6.2%	-0.5%	12.1x
5	JANW	-3.7%	+6.7%	-0.6%	11.8x
6	PJAN	-3.7%	+7.2%	-0.6%	11.8x
7	GDEC	-3.5%	+7.1%	-0.6%	11.4x
8	NJAN	-4.3%	+6.8%	-0.6%	11.2x
9	NDEC	-5.1%	+6.0%	-0.5%	11.1x
10	XDEC	-3.5%	+6.7%	-0.6%	10.7x

AAPR6d

Innv0.00%

AIOO6d

AIM—

APOC6d

Innv+2.84%

APRT6d

AIM+0.66%

APRW6d

AIM+0.07%

ARLU6d

AIM—

FLAO6d

AIM+7.20%

NAPR6d

Innv+0.10%

PAPR6d

Innv+0.21%

QBSF6d

AIM+2.33%

SIXO6d

AIM+6.80%

UAPR6d

Innv+0.20%

ZAPR6d

Innv+0.05%

Volume Traded

#1GDEC1.10MFT · SPY

#2FMAR1.03MFT · SPY

#3FJAN952.7KFT · SPY

#4FAUG862.4KFT · SPY

#5FFEB852.7KFT · SPY

#6FJUL783.8KFT · SPY

#7XJUN753.8KFT · SPY

#8XAPR715.6KFT · SPY

#9GMAR657.6KFT · SPY

#10GJUN637.4KFT · SPY

#	Ticker	Rem. Cap	Days	Yield	Grade
1	SIXZ	+8.58%	36d	87.0%	C
2	SIXD	+8.63%	67d	47.0%	C
3	FHDG	+5.43%	51d	38.9%	D
4	QSPT	+16.05%	177d	33.1%	A
5	FMAY	+4.57%	51d	32.7%	B
6	QJUN	+6.97%	85d	29.9%	A
7	SIXJ	+7.94%	97d	29.9%	C
8	JULT	+7.92%	97d	29.8%	A
9	NVBT	+17.79%	220d	29.5%	A
10	QMMY	+4.08%	51d	29.2%	B

🎯 Near Original Entry 43

Status	Ticker	Provider	Score^*⇅	Rem. Cap⇅	Rem. Buf⇅	Days⇅	DBB⇅	Cap Yld⇅	Prob.⇅
Target Range	SIXOSPY10% Buffer 6-Month	AllianzIM^™	0.0	~6.8%	~8.3%	6	~-0.4%	~414%	~0%
Target Range	NVBWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	3.3	~11.0%	~16.5%	220	~-0.4%	~18.2%	~17%
Target Range	PNOVSPY15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	4.1	~13.4%	~11.8%	220	—	~22.2%	~14%
Target Range	DECWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	3.3	~11.2%	~16.6%	250	~-0.2%	~16.3%	~18%
Target Range	PDECSPY15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	4.2	~13.6%	~11.9%	250	—	~19.8%	~15%
Target Range	GDECSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	4.2	~12.6%	~12.3%	268	—	~17.2%	~18%
Target Range	XDECSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	2.7	~10.1%	~11.9%	268	—	~13.8%	~22%
Target Range	JANWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	3.3	~10.8%	~17.2%	281	—	~14.1%	~21%
Target Range	JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	-1.8	~6.8%	~42.7%	296	~-0.2%	~8.4%	~26%
Target Range	FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	-2.1	~7.1%	~44.6%	331	—	~7.8%	~27%
Extended Range	AIOOSPY100% Protection	AllianzIM^™	—	~0.0%	~99.9%	6	~-0.3%	~25% Partic.	~11%
Extended Range	FSEPSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	4.9	~12.8%	~7.8%	177	~-1.2%	~26.3%	~15%
Extended Range	GSEPSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	4.4	~9.8%	~12.5%	177	~-1.6%	~20.2%	~19%
Extended Range	QSPTQQQ10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	6.3	~16.1%	~7.3%	177	~-0.9%	~33.1%	~9%
Extended Range	OCTTSPY10% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	5.2	~14.1%	~7.9%	189	~-0.8%	~27.1%	~13%
Extended Range	OCTWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	4.0	~8.7%	~17.3%	189	~-1.6%	~16.7%	~22%
Extended Range	POCTSPY15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	4.5	~10.4%	~12.5%	189	~-1.3%	~20.1%	~19%
Extended Range	FOCTSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	5.3	~13.8%	~7.7%	205	~-1.2%	~24.7%	~14%
Extended Range	GOCTSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	4.8	~10.6%	~12.5%	205	~-1.5%	~18.8%	~20%
Extended Range	OCTMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	2.1	~5.3%	~41.4%	205	~-1.7%	~9.4%	~31%
Extended Range	QCOCQQQ10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	5.1	~11.1%	~16.5%	205	~-1.2%	~19.8%	~16%
Extended Range	NVBTSPY10% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	4.7	~17.8%	~7.3%	220	—	~29.5%	~9%
Extended Range	FNOVSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	6.4	~14.7%	~7.9%	240	~-1.8%	~22.3%	~15%
Extended Range	NOVMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	2.7	~5.2%	~56.0%	240	~-1.8%	~7.8%	~34%
Extended Range	DECTSPY10% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	5.1	~17.9%	~7.4%	250	—	~26.1%	~10%
Extended Range	NDECQQQ15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	5.7	~16.5%	~11.3%	250	—	~24.1%	~11%
Extended Range	DECMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	-0.6	~6.3%	~48.1%	268	~-0.8%	~8.5%	~28%
Extended Range	FDECSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	5.2	~16.1%	~7.8%	268	—	~21.9%	~14%
Extended Range	RSDERSP10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	6.7	~13.3%	~8.5%	268	~-1.5%	~18.1%	~20%
Extended Range	YDECEFA15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	7.3	~11.7%	~14.8%	268	~-1.3%	~16.0%	~25%
Extended Range	NJANQQQ15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	6.6	~15.9%	~12.2%	281	—	~20.7%	~14%
Extended Range	PJANSPY15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	4.4	~13.2%	~12.4%	281	—	~17.1%	~18%
Extended Range	QCJAQQQ10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	4.1	~13.3%	~16.6%	296	—	~16.4%	~17%
Extended Range	XJANSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	1.8	~11.0%	~11.4%	296	—	~13.6%	~20%
Extended Range	FEBWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	2.5	~11.8%	~16.8%	312	—	~13.8%	~20%
Extended Range	QMFEQQQ15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	7.7	~15.9%	~12.7%	331	—	~17.6%	~17%
Extended Range	XFEBSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	2.3	~11.6%	~11.9%	331	—	~12.8%	~22%
Extended Range	MARWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	3.2	~11.8%	~17.3%	340	—	~12.6%	~22%
Extended Range	FMARSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	8.4	~15.4%	~9.5%	359	~-1.6%	~15.7%	~22%
Extended Range	GMARSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	7.7	~12.4%	~14.5%	359	~-1.6%	~12.7%	~27%
Extended Range	MARMSPY50% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	2.2	~5.7%	~76.8%	359	~-1.3%	~5.8%	~40%
Extended Range	QMARQQQ10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	10.0	~19.2%	~9.3%	359	~-1.5%	~19.5%	~16%
Extended Range	XMARSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	6.4	~10.7%	~14.6%	359	~-1.4%	~10.9%	~30%

Sort by:

SIXO 10% Buffer
6-Month

Target
Range 0.0

▼

NVBW 20% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 3.3

▼

PNOV 15% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 4.1

▼

DECW 20% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 3.3

▼

PDEC 15% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 4.2

▼

GDEC 15% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 4.2

▼

XDEC 15% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 2.7

▼

JANW 20% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range 3.3

▼

JANM 50% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range -1.8

▼

FEBM 50% Buffer
Annual

Target
Range -2.1

▼

AIOO 100%
Protection

Extended
Range

▼

FSEP 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.9

▼

GSEP 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.4

▼

QSPT 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 6.3

▼

OCTT 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.2

▼

OCTW 20% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.0

▼

POCT 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.5

▼

FOCT 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.3

▼

GOCT 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.8

▼

OCTM 50% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 2.1

▼

QCOC 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.1

▼

NVBT 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.7

▼

FNOV 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 6.4

▼

NOVM 50% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 2.7

▼

DECT 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.1

▼

NDEC 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.7

▼

DECM 50% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range -0.6

▼

FDEC 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 5.2

▼

RSDE 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 6.7

▼

YDEC 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 7.3

▼

NJAN 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 6.6

▼

PJAN 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.4

▼

QCJA 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 4.1

▼

XJAN 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 1.8

▼

FEBW 20% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 2.5

▼

QMFE 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 7.7

▼

XFEB 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 2.3

▼

MARW 20% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 3.2

▼

FMAR 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 8.4

▼

GMAR 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 7.7

▼

MARM 50% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 2.2

▼

QMAR 10% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 10.0

▼

XMAR 15% Buffer
Annual

Extended
Range 6.4

▼

💎 Ultra Buffer Sweet Spot — 30% Protection Zone 2

Status	Ticker	Provider	Score^*⇅	Rem. Cap⇅	Rem. Buf⇅	Days⇅	DBB⇅	Cap Yld⇅	Prob.⇅	View
Target Range	DHDGSPY12% Buffer Quarterly	First Trust^™	0.1	~6.2%	~10.1%	23	~-0.4%	~99.0%	~7%
Target Range	FHDGSPY5% Buffer Quarterly	First Trust^™	0.0	~5.4%	~4.5%	51	—	~38.9%	~15%

Sort by:

DHDG 12% Buffer
Quarterly

Target
Range 0.1

▼

FHDG 5% Buffer
Quarterly

Target
Range 0.0

▼

⚡ Uncapped Buffer — Near Threshold Entry 2

Status	Ticker	Provider	Score^*⇅	Rem. Cap⇅	Rem. Buf⇅	Days⇅	DBB⇅	Cap Yld⇅	Prob.⇅	View
* Near Threshold	AUGUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer	AllianzIM^™	0.3	~0.0%	~14.4%	128	—	~3.3% Spread	>95%
Target Range	OCTUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer	AllianzIM^™	0.1	~0.0%	~13.9%	189	—	~3.8% Spread	~48%

Sort by:

AUGU 15%
Uncapped Buffer

* Near
Threshold 0.3

▼

OCTU 15%
Uncapped Buffer

Target
Range 0.1

▼

🛡 100% Principal Protection 9

Status	Ticker	Provider	Score^*⇅	Rem. Cap⇅	Rem. Buf⇅	Days⇅	DBB⇅	Cap Yld⇅	Prob.⇅
Target Range	APOCSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	0.3	~2.8%	~99.5%	6	~-0.5%	~173%	~8%
Target Range	JAJLSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	—	~2.9%	~99.6%	97	~-0.4%	~10.9%	~25%
Target Range	ZDEKSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	-1.2	~5.9%	~99.0%	250	~-1.0%	~8.6%	~27%
Target Range	ZJANSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	-1.5	~5.9%	~99.3%	281	~-0.7%	~7.7%	~29%
Target Range	ZFEBSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	-2.0	~6.2%	~99.8%	312	~-0.2%	~7.3%	~27%
Target Range	ZMARSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	-2.2	~6.7%	~99.9%	340	~-0.1%	~7.2%	~29%
Target Range	AJANSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	2.1	~12.5%	~99.1%	646	~-0.9%	~7.1%	~27%
Extended Range	ZNOVSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	-0.7	~5.7%	~98.8%	220	~-1.1%	~9.4%	~26%
Extended Range	TOCTSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	4.6	~10.8%	~98.0%	554	~-1.9%	~7.1%	~30%

Sort by:

APOC 100%
Protection

Target
Range 0.3

▼

JAJL 100%
Protection

Target
Range

▼

ZDEK 100%
Protection

Target
Range -1.2

▼

ZJAN 100%
Protection

Target
Range -1.5

▼

ZFEB 100%
Protection

Target
Range -2.0

▼

ZMAR 100%
Protection

Target
Range -2.2

▼

AJAN 100%
Protection

Target
Range 2.1

▼

ZNOV 100%
Protection

Extended
Range -0.7

▼

TOCT 100%
Protection

Extended
Range 4.6

▼

▲ Near Cap — At or Near Maximum Period Return 12

Status	Ticker	Provider	Rem. Cap⇅	Rem. Buf⇅	Days⇅	DBB⇅	Cap Yld⇅	Prob.⇅
Near Cap	AAPRSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	~0.0%	~84.3%	6	~-15.7%	Uncapped	>95%
Near Cap	APRTSPY10% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	~0.7%	~10.3%	6	~-13.0%	~40.2%	>95%
Near Cap	APRWSPY20% Buffer Annual	AllianzIM^™	~0.1%	~21.9%	6	~-9.9%	~4.3%	>95%
Near Cap	NAPRQQQ15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	~0.1%	~18.7%	6	~-13.5%	~6.1%	>95%
Near Cap	PAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual	Innovator^™	~0.2%	~16.6%	6	~-11.0%	~12.8%	>95%
Near Cap	UAPRSPY30% Ultra Buffer	Innovator^™	~0.2%	~29.3%	6	~-15.4%	~12.2%	>95%
Near Cap	ZAPRSPY100% Protection	Innovator^™	~0.1%	~93.0%	6	~-7.0%	~3.0%	>95%
Near Cap	APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	~0.2%	~93.3%	23	~-6.7%	~2.9%	>95%
Near Cap	DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	~0.6%	~27.4%	23	~-16.5%	~9.0%	>95%
Near Cap	FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	~1.0%	~13.1%	23	~-14.7%	~16.0%	>95%
Near Cap	GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	~0.6%	~19.3%	23	~-12.6%	~9.0%	>95%
Near Cap	QCAPQQQ10% Buffer Annual	First Trust^™	~0.5%	~26.9%	23	~-12.6%	~8.4%	>95%

Sort by:

AAPR 100%
Protection

Near Cap

▼

APRT 10% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

APRW 20% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

NAPR 15% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

PAPR 15% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

UAPR 30% Ultra
Buffer

Near Cap

▼

ZAPR 100%
Protection

Near Cap

▼

APXM 100% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

DAPR 25% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

FAPR 10% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

GAPR 15% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

QCAP 10% Buffer
Annual

Near Cap

▼

Independent Research & Trademark Notices

Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.

The Opportunity Score^* and all probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.

^* The Opportunity Score is a proprietary mathematical model provided for informational comparison purposes only. It is not an indicator of future performance, and different models may produce significantly different results.

—

— View on Provider →

Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration

Target Range

Extended Range

Loss Zone

Before Fees

After Fees

Max Gain

~0%

% Cap Used

~0%

% Buffer Used

Note: * All values shown are after-fee (net) values. ** Probability estimates are model-based and not predictive of future results. All data is sourced from publicly available sources. Not affiliated with any Fund Company. This publication does not constitute investment advice.

How to Use This Report

Start With the Score Filter

The Opportunity Score key at the top controls which ETFs are visible. A higher minimum (like ≥7) surfaces the most mathematically favorable profiles based on modeled outcomes at expiration. Tap "Show All" to clear the filter and see everything. The score is a composite of three components — excess upside vs. T-Bills, cap probability, and buffer quality — and applies only to standard buffered sections. Acceleration, Dual Direction, and Near Cap sections are exempt. All scores are model-based and not predictive of future results.

Intelligence Dashboard

The collapsible dashboard at the top provides a quick snapshot of the most important intelligence. Click the Intelligence Dashboard bar to expand or collapse it.

Asymmetry Ratio — A proprietary indicator that measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.

Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.

Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so you can compare a fund with 60 days left to one with 300 days left on equal footing. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.

Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.

Expand Sections That Interest You

Each section is collapsed by default. Click the section header to expand it and see the ETFs inside. Near Cap sections start open since they are time-sensitive alerts.

Sort to Find What Matters

Click any column header on desktop to sort that section. On mobile, use the sort bar below each table. Try sorting by Cap Yield to find the best annualized return potential, or by Days to see what resets soonest.

Use Filters to Narrow Down

The provider, period, and status chips at the top let you isolate specific fund families, time horizons, or signal types. The ticker search box lets you jump straight to a specific ETF.

View Details & Payoff Curves

Click "View" on any ETF to open a side panel with the full payoff curve, key metrics, and position visualization. This shows you exactly where the ETF sits within its outcome period.

Toggle Data Lite Mode

The Data Heavy / Data Lite toggle at the top right simplifies the view by hiding less critical columns. Useful for a quick scan on mobile.

Section Guide

Near Original Entry — Best entry points: ETFs trading closest to their starting price with maximum cap and buffer intact.

Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.

Approaching Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; useful for deciding whether to hold or roll.

Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Score does not apply; symmetry analysis matters instead.

Tap the ⓘ button again to close

Glossary of Terms

Remaining Cap (Rem. Cap)

The maximum upside return still available before the fund hits its ceiling for the period. Higher = more room to grow.

Remaining Buffer (Rem. Buf)

~15% current level of downside protection by the end of the outcome period.

Days

Calendar days left until the outcome period resets. At reset, the fund starts a new cap and buffer cycle.

DBB (Downside Before Buffer)

The amount of fund loss before the buffer starts.

Cap Yield (Cap Yld)

The remaining cap expressed as an annualized return. Lets you compare ETFs with different time horizons on equal footing.

Probability (Prob.)

Model-estimated likelihood that the index will reach the cap level by expiration. Based on current implied volatility and time remaining.

Opportunity Score

A 0–10 composite derived from three modeled components: (1) Excess Upside vs. T-Bills, (2) Probability of reaching cap at expiration, and (3) Buffer quality. All observations are based on modeled outcomes at expiration and are not predictive of future results. Does not apply to Acceleration, Dual Direction, or Near Cap sections.

Target Range

The fund is trading closest to its starting price minus the fund fee — the ideal entry zone where you get the most cap and the most buffer.

Extended Range

Still near the starting price but slightly outside the tightest zone. Cap and buffer are still largely intact.

Near Cap

The fund is at or near its maximum return for the period. Little upside remains, but downside risk is still present.

Acceleration Zone

Leveraged ETFs (2x or 3x) that multiply index gains above a threshold. Position matters — being near the start or threshold changes the risk/reward.

% Cap Used / % Buffer Used

How much of the original cap or buffer has already been consumed by index movement since the period started.

Outcome Radar - March 25, 2026

HOW TO USE THIS REPORT

Welcome to Outcome Radar

The Stats Bar & Market Data

The Opportunity Score

Filters & Search Tools

The Near Entry Table

ETF Outcome Profiler

Report Sections & Dashboard

You're Ready

Asymmetry Ratio

Upcoming Resets

Top Cap Yield

Implied Volatility — Reset Cap Outlook

Independent Research & Trademark Notices

Read more

Outcome Radar - April 24, 2026

Outcome Radar - April 24, 2026

Outcome Radar - April 24, 2026

Outcome Radar - April 24, 2026