Outcome Radar - May 11, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 8 near acceleration, 42 near cap. Total 57 signals.
7 of the 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with the other 45 mid-period. None of the 7 have an exact or partial-match roll candidate, so existing holders have no clean replacement to evaluate — though 3 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 20–38 days until reset, which may be worth surfacing to clients even without a comparable alternative available.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~22.8% | 38 | ~-15.8% | ~3.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~14.5% | 4 | ~-13.2% | ~4.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.5% | 38 | ~-15.0% | ~7.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~14.7% | 20 | ~-13.9% | ~4.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~13.5% | 20 | ~-14.0% | ~4.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~15.0% | 38 | ~-12.7% | ~7.4% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.4% | ~12.6% | 50 | ~-12.4% | ~10.5% | ~73% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
15 of the 88 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap; 13 of those have no comparable replacement, and 6 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 20–50 days left before reset—existing holders in those positions may find a roll worth surfacing even with thin alternatives. 2 of the 15 do have exact-match candidates, though family alignment is mixed. 2 funds are in Target/Extended Range with full buffer largely intact, and the other 71 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.8% | ~13.5% | 293 | ~-0.2% | ~17.1% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.0% | ~14.4% | 354 | ~-1.8% | ~14.4% | ~24% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~24.5% | 4 | ~-13.3% | ~4.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.1% | 4 | ~-14.4% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~22.1% | 4 | ~-9.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~20.6% | 4 | ~-11.1% | ~1.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~24.4% | 20 | ~-14.5% | ~4.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~24.8% | 20 | ~-13.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~27.8% | 50 | ~-11.8% | ~4.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~21.1% | 20 | ~-11.1% | ~4.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~22.4% | 38 | ~-9.2% | ~5.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~21.9% | 50 | ~-13.9% | ~8.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~22.2% | 50 | ~-12.0% | ~7.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~21.0% | 38 | ~-10.7% | ~5.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~18.6% | 38 | ~-10.7% | ~9.6% | ~88% | ||
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~19.0% | 50 | ~-9.9% | ~8.1% | ~85% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~15.3% | 20 | ~-12.0% | ~19.0% | ~72% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
8 of the 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap; 4 of those are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 20–38 days left in the period, making roll evaluation worth surfacing for existing holders even where alternatives are imperfect. 2 of the 8 have exact-match candidates, 6 have partial-match candidates (same underlying, different buffer level), and none are without a comparable option entirely. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range with a full 20.56% buffer and 354 days remaining; the other 43 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
MAYWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~9.4% | ~20.6% | 354 | ~-1.7% | ~9.7% | ~35% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.3% | 4 | ~-6.7% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~28.1% | 4 | ~-15.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~26.3% | 20 | ~-10.1% | ~3.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~66.8% | 38 | ~-6.3% | ~3.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~33.1% | 20 | ~-15.0% | ~3.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~28.8% | 38 | ~-15.0% | ~5.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~24.2% | 50 | ~-9.0% | ~6.4% | ~89% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~31.6% | 50 | ~-14.1% | ~7.3% | ~87% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Buffer
2 of the 26 annual-cycle uncapped funds are in Target/Extended Range tonight; the other 24 are mid-period. The freshest of the two has a 14.75% buffer intact with 234 days remaining on an EFA underlying, with -3.66% downside before the buffer engages. No Near-Cap funds are present.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.8% | 234 | ~-3.7% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.2% | 354 | ~-3.0% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
2 of the 30 funds are Near Cap, and both are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 20–50 days left in their periods; exact-match candidates exist for both, though all matches are cross-family, so existing holders should evaluate whether a roll across issuers fits their process. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range with a full buffer intact and 340 days remaining; the other 27 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~50.6% | 340 | ~-1.4% | ~5.9% | ~46% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.2% | 20 | ~-6.8% | ~2.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~84.6% | 50 | ~-15.4% | ~3.6% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
3 of the 25 annual-cycle dual-direction funds are Near Cap; the other 22 are mid-period. None of the 3 have a comparable replacement — same-buffer, same-underlying alternatives don't exist in tonight's universe — so existing holders may simply let these reset at period end.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.5% | 50 | ~-7.5% | ~5.7% | ~46% | |
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~17.4% | 50 | ~-5.8% | ~5.8% | ~46% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~14.3% | 50 | ~-10.5% | ~7.1% | ~45% |
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
1 of the 23 funds is Near Cap with no exact or partial-match roll candidate available; existing holders may simply let it reset at period end. The remaining 22 are mid-period across 17 quarterly and 6 six-month cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | FHDGSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~10.1% | 4 | ~-3.7% | ~0.0% | ~93% |
Quarterly
14 of the 15 accelerated funds are at threshold, spanning SPY, QQQ, VOO, and GLD underlyings across 13 annual and 2 quarterly cycles. The one Near-Cap fund has no comparable replacement—existing holders may let it reset at period end rather than pursue a roll.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~17.3% | ~5.3% | 18 | ~-0.1% | ~352% | ~0% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.0% | ~0.0% | 142 | — | ~13.0% | ~50% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.0% | ~0.0% | 142 | — | ~12.9% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTJAQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~8.7% | ~0.0% | 234 | — | ~13.5% | ~50% | |
| Accel Zone | XBJASPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~6.6% | ~9.0% | 234 | 0.0% | ~10.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTJASPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~8.4% | ~0.0% | 234 | — | ~13.1% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.7% | ~0.0% | 324 | — | ~10.9% | ~50% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~8.2% | ~9.0% | 324 | 0.0% | ~9.2% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~0.0% | 324 | — | ~11.2% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~0.0% | 50 | — | ~6.8% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~9.0% | 50 | 0.0% | ~6.6% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~0.0% | 50 | — | ~8.0% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.3% | ~0.0% | 50 | — | ~9.5% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~0.0% | 50 | — | ~6.9% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~4.0% | ~9.0% | 142 | 0.0% | ~10.2% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with a comparable replacement: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Roll Review: KJAN”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with no suitable match (or under ~30 days left): “Pinned to cap · ~0.4% upside left · 12 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
• Green chip — Exact structural match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable structural successor exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that candidate ETF’s row for side-by-side comparison.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.