Outcome Radar - May 14, 2026
Today's analysis: 4 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 46 near cap. Total 52 signals.
8 of the 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with 44 mid-period. None of the 8 have an exact or partial-match roll candidate — no clean replacement exists across buffer level or underlying index — so existing holders may simply let these reset. Worth noting: 5 of those 8 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 17–35 days left in their periods, which may be worth surfacing to affected clients even with no comparable alternative available.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~15.3% | 1 | ~-13.3% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~22.3% | 35 | ~-15.8% | ~3.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~19.0% | 35 | ~-15.1% | ~6.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~15.5% | 17 | ~-13.9% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~14.3% | 17 | ~-14.1% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~15.7% | 35 | ~-12.8% | ~6.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.2% | ~13.3% | 47 | ~-12.8% | ~9.6% | ~79% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.3% | ~11.9% | 47 | ~-12.9% | ~9.8% | ~78% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
15 of the 88 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with 13 of those 15 having no comparable roll target — existing holders may simply let those reset. 6 of the 15 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 17–47 days of period left, which may warrant surfacing even when alternatives are thin. 2 funds are in Target/Extended Range; the other 71 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.8% | ~13.3% | 290 | ~-0.1% | ~17.4% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.3% | ~14.4% | 351 | ~-1.5% | ~14.9% | ~23% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~21.2% | 1 | ~-11.2% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~25.0% | 1 | ~-13.4% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~22.9% | 1 | ~-14.4% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~22.9% | 1 | ~-9.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~25.3% | 17 | ~-13.4% | ~3.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~24.2% | 17 | ~-14.5% | ~5.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~27.4% | 47 | ~-11.8% | ~5.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~21.8% | 17 | ~-11.2% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~23.2% | 35 | ~-9.3% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~22.7% | 47 | ~-12.2% | ~6.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~21.7% | 35 | ~-10.8% | ~4.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~21.6% | 47 | ~-13.9% | ~8.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~19.6% | 47 | ~-10.2% | ~6.7% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~18.4% | 35 | ~-10.7% | ~10.6% | ~88% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~14.9% | 17 | ~-12.2% | ~17.8% | ~71% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
8 of the 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with 44 mid-period. None of the 8 have an exact or partial-match roll candidate — no clean replacement exists in this deep-buffer tier — so existing holders are largely weighing a roll into a dissimilar profile against letting the position reset. 4 of those 8 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 17–35 days left in the period, making it worth surfacing that cost-of-waiting question with affected clients even absent a comparable alternative.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~28.7% | 1 | ~-15.7% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.3% | 1 | ~-6.7% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~27.0% | 17 | ~-10.2% | ~2.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJUNSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~33.7% | 17 | ~-15.1% | ~1.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~67.1% | 35 | ~-6.3% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~29.4% | 35 | ~-15.0% | ~5.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.8% | ~25.0% | 47 | ~-9.1% | ~6.1% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~32.1% | 47 | ~-14.3% | ~6.5% | ~91% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
2 of the 26 annual-cycle uncapped funds are in Target/Extended Range, with 24 mid-period. The freshest of the two has a 14.70% buffer intact, -3.40% downside before that buffer engages, and 231 days remaining on an EFA underlying — the cleaner of the two expressions of this category's full-buffer, unlimited-upside profile.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 231 | ~-3.4% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.2% | 351 | ~-4.0% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
2 of the 30 funds are Near Cap; both are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 17–47 days left in their periods, and both have exact-match candidates — though all matches are cross-family. Existing holders may weigh a cross-family roll against holding through reset; the weeks of negligible gain are a real cost, but no same-family replacement exists tonight. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, and the remaining 27 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.4% | ~51.0% | 337 | ~-1.6% | ~5.8% | ~48% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.2% | 17 | ~-6.8% | ~2.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~84.5% | 47 | ~-15.5% | ~3.1% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
4 of the 25 annual-cycle dual-direction funds are Near Cap, with 21 mid-period. None of the 4 have an exact or partial-match roll candidate — no clean replacement exists in the category — and 3 of the 4 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 47 days still to run; existing holders may weigh surfacing that tension against simply waiting for reset.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~12.6% | 47 | ~-4.8% | ~4.0% | ~47% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~22.1% | 47 | ~-7.7% | ~4.4% | ~47% | |
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~18.0% | 47 | ~-5.8% | ~5.4% | ~46% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~15.0% | 47 | ~-10.6% | ~6.1% | ~46% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
3 of the 23 funds are Near Cap; the other 20 are mid-period across 17 quarterly and 6 six-month cycles. None of the 3 Near-Cap funds have a comparable roll target — no exact or partial match exists in the universe tonight — so existing holders may simply let these reset. Worth noting: 2 of those 3 are pinned at near-zero remaining upside with 17–47 days still on the clock, which may be worth surfacing in client reviews even with no clean alternative available.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | FHDGSPY5% or 7.5% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~10.9% | 1 | ~-3.8% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~16.9% | 47 | ~-7.0% | ~5.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~11.1% | 17 | ~-7.2% | ~15.0% | ~61% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
6-Month
6 of the 15 accelerated funds are at threshold, with 8 mid-period and 1 Near Cap. The single Near-Cap fund has no exact or partial-match roll candidate; existing holders may let it reset at period end. The 6 threshold funds span SPY, QQQ, VOO, and GLD underlyings, split across 13 annual and 2 quarterly cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~17.6% | ~3.9% | 15 | 0.0% | ~427% | ~0% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~0.0% | 47 | — | ~6.0% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~9.0% | 47 | 0.0% | ~5.4% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~0.0% | 47 | — | ~6.9% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~0.0% | 47 | — | ~8.2% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~0.0% | 47 | — | ~5.8% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.6% | ~9.0% | 139 | 0.0% | ~9.5% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with a comparable replacement: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Roll Review: KJAN”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with no suitable match (or under ~30 days left): “Pinned to cap · ~0.4% upside left · 12 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
• Green chip — Exact structural match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable structural successor exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that candidate ETF’s row for side-by-side comparison.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.