Outcome Radar - May 21, 2026
Today's analysis: 11 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 41 near cap. Total 54 signals.
7 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressing toward zero as their reset cycles approach — existing holders may want to evaluate their positions. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, with a full 8.99% buffer intact and 366 days remaining on a SPY-based outcome period. The other 44 are mid-period; on a pullback, some could move toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~15.8% | ~9.0% | 366 | ~-1.3% | ~15.7% | ~21% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~20.5% | 29 | ~-15.8% | ~3.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~18.3% | 29 | ~-15.2% | ~5.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~14.8% | 11 | ~-13.5% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~13.5% | 11 | ~-14.1% | ~2.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.5% | ~14.9% | 29 | ~-12.9% | ~6.3% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.2% | ~12.6% | 41 | ~-12.4% | ~11.0% | ~78% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~11.2% | 41 | ~-13.0% | ~10.2% | ~75% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
12 of 88 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 6 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a 14.11% buffer and 366 days remaining. The remaining 70 are mid-period. On a pullback, some of those mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range across what is a broadly diversified tab—SPY, EFA, IWM, QQQ, and EEM.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.5% | ~13.2% | 284 | ~-0.4% | ~17.4% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~16.6% | ~13.9% | 345 | ~-1.7% | ~17.6% | ~18% | |
| Extended Range |
SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~17.1% | ~13.8% | 366 | ~-1.9% | ~17.1% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~16.2% | ~14.1% | 366 | ~-1.4% | ~16.1% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.6% | ~14.1% | 366 | ~-1.2% | ~12.6% | ~26% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~9.9% | ~14.1% | 366 | ~-1.1% | ~9.9% | ~30% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~24.7% | 11 | ~-13.5% | ~2.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~23.1% | 11 | ~-14.6% | ~3.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~21.1% | 11 | ~-11.3% | ~1.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~25.6% | 41 | ~-11.8% | ~5.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~22.4% | 29 | ~-9.4% | ~4.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~21.9% | 41 | ~-12.4% | ~5.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~21.0% | 29 | ~-10.8% | ~4.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~20.4% | 41 | ~-14.1% | ~7.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~18.8% | 41 | ~-10.4% | ~5.7% | ~89% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~18.2% | 29 | ~-11.0% | ~8.8% | ~88% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~19.6% | 58 | ~-8.5% | ~5.7% | ~85% | |
| Near Cap | IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~14.5% | 11 | ~-12.7% | ~9.6% | ~77% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
7 of 52 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressing toward zero as they approach reset; existing holders may want to evaluate their position. 2 are in Target/Extended Range — the freshest carries a full buffer with 366 days remaining on a SPY underlying and only -0.92% downside before the buffer engages. The other 43 are mid-period, all on annual cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.3% | ~24.0% | 366 | ~-6.2% | ~12.3% | ~26% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.1% | ~99.1% | 366 | ~-0.9% | ~6.1% | ~38% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~26.4% | 11 | ~-9.9% | ~4.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJUNSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~33.2% | 11 | ~-15.2% | ~1.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~66.8% | 29 | ~-6.4% | ~3.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~28.8% | 29 | ~-15.1% | ~5.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.1% | ~27.2% | 58 | ~-9.9% | ~6.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~24.3% | 41 | ~-9.0% | ~6.5% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~31.5% | 41 | ~-14.3% | ~7.1% | ~90% |
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
2 of the 26 annual-cycle uncapped funds are in Target/Extended Range; the other 24 are mid-period. The freshest of the two carries a 14.75% buffer with 225 days remaining and -3.01% downside before the buffer engages. On a pullback, mid-period funds could migrate toward that range as well.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.8% | 225 | ~-3.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 345 | ~-3.2% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
2 of 30 are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 1 is in Target/Extended Range with a full 50.64% buffer and 331 days remaining on an SPY-linked period, and 27 are mid-period across annual and two-year cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.4% | ~50.6% | 331 | ~-1.6% | ~6.0% | ~46% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | ZJUNSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.2% | 11 | ~-6.8% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~84.5% | 41 | ~-15.5% | ~3.2% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
4 of the 25 dual-direction funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve; existing holders may want to evaluate their positions as these annual-cycle funds near reset. The remaining 21 are mid-period. The underlying exposure skews heavily toward one large-cap equity reference asset, with 20 of 25 funds tracking SPY.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~21.3% | 41 | ~-7.8% | ~3.6% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~17.0% | 41 | ~-6.1% | ~3.8% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~11.8% | 41 | ~-4.9% | ~4.1% | ~47% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~14.2% | 41 | ~-10.8% | ~5.8% | ~46% |
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
3 of the 23 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; the remaining 20 are mid-period. With resets arriving every 3 or 6 months across this 17 quarterly, 6 six-month mix, those Near-Cap positions will cycle back relatively quickly regardless. Underlying exposure spans 12 SPY-referenced funds alongside IWM, QQQ, EFA, EEM, and VOO positions.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~22.5% | 41 | ~-4.7% | ~4.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~16.1% | 41 | ~-7.1% | ~6.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~10.3% | 11 | ~-6.9% | ~24.2% | ~58% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
6-Month
6 of 15 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with 8 mid-period and 1 approaching the top of its payoff curve — the latter may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders. The 6 threshold funds span SPY, QQQ, VOO, and GLD underlyings, most on annual cycles. On further upside, mid-period funds could compress remaining cap and shift the Near-Cap count.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~18.3% | ~2.1% | 9 | 0.0% | ~741% | ~0% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 41 | — | ~5.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~9.0% | 41 | 0.0% | ~5.3% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~0.0% | 41 | — | ~6.5% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~0.0% | 41 | — | ~8.6% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 41 | — | ~5.7% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~9.0% | 133 | 0.0% | ~9.5% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.