Daily Report

Outcome Radar - May 22, 2026

Today's analysis: 1 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 1 near cap. Total 2 signals.

Eric Cerrone

— 261 min read
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Outcome Radar - Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence - May 22, 2026
Outcome Radar dish
Outcome RadarTM Nightly Defined Outcome Intelligence
May 22, 2026
Independent Analysis  ·  Not affiliated with any Fund Provider

HOW TO USE THIS REPORT

A quick walkthrough of every feature in your nightly Outcome Radar™ report
Step 1 of 8

Welcome to Outcome Radar

Every night, Outcome Radar™ scans the entire universe of Defined Outcome ETFs and surfaces the ones that matter most.

Five fund providers are tracked and color-coded throughout:

Innovator™ First Trust™ AllianzIM™ TrueShares™ iShares™
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
📡
OUTCOME RADAR
NIGHTLY DEFINED OUTCOME INTELLIGENCE
Step 2 of 8

The Stats Bar & Market Data

Five key numbers at the top give you an instant pulse check. Scan these first every time you open the report.

Near Entry tells you how many ETFs are near their starting price — fund has reset or is back to its original starting point which could provide more favorable risk/reward characteristics. Near Cap flags funds hitting their ceiling.

Below that, T-Bill yields are your risk-free benchmark, and Implied Volatility shows conditions for each tracked index.

Note: A higher "Near Entry" count indicates a larger volume of funds currently trading near their baseline entry parameters.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
311
ETFs Analyzed
1
Near Entry
0
Uncapped Near Entry
0
Accel Zone
1
Near Cap
Step 3 of 8

Filters & Search Tools

The toolbar gives you powerful filtering. All filters work in combination to narrow results.

Provider — Toggle Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, or iShares™ on/off.

Status — Target Range, Extended Range, Near Entry, Accel Zone, Near Cap.

Period — Quarterly, Semi-Annual, Annual, or 2-Year.

Full Sweep / Quick Scan — Toggle on the right side of the toolbar. Full Sweep (default) shows every column. Quick Scan strips the secondary metrics so only Status, Ticker, Provider, Days, and Cap Yield remain — the columns that drive a fast read.

Ticker search in the toolbar finds any ETF by symbol — even funds in the collapsed All Others section.

Pro Tip #1: If an ETF is not generating a signal, it will still show up as Mid-Period in the All Others collapsed section at the bottom of each tab — every ticker is searchable.
Pro Tip #2: Pair Quick Scan with the Target and Extended Range filters for a fast read of where the universe stands.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Provider
Innovator™ × First Trust™ × AllianzIM™ × TrueShares™ × iShares™ ×
Status
✓ Target Range ✓ Extended Range
🔍 Search ticker
Step 4 of 8

The Executive Summary

At the top of every tab you’ll see a small Executive Summary pill. Click it to expand a one-paragraph, plain-English read on what’s happening in that tab tonight.

The summary is produced each night from the numbers in the tab — how many funds sit in Target/Extended Range, how many are Near Cap, how much time is left in the period, and whether comparable roll candidates exist. It’s descriptive, not prescriptive.

Every summary ends with the same line, shown on its own row in bold italics:

For informational purposes, not investment advice.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
📝 Executive Summary ▲

6 of 48 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap — existing holders may want to evaluate a roll, as standard 9–10% buffer alternatives are broadly available. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range with the full buffer largely intact; the remaining 41 are mid-period.

For informational purposes, not investment advice.

Step 5 of 8

The Near Entry Table

The most actionable section. ETFs here are near their starting price — giving you full cap upside with full buffer protection.

Click any column header to sort. Users often sort by closest to Target Range to view funds with intact buffers alongside their corresponding Cap Yield and Asymmetry values.

Column reference: Cap yield is the annualized remaining cap; probability is a model-based estimate; DBB (Downside Before Buffer) measures how far the index can fall before buffer absorption begins.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
🎯 Near Entry 50
StatusTickerCap YldRem. Cap
ExtendedKJAN~20.8%~15.2%
TargetIJAN~17.9%~13.5%
Step 6 of 8

ETF Outcome Profiler

All calculations are estimates and are net of fund fees.

Click any ETF row to open a slide-in detail panel showing the complete picture.

Outcome Profile Chart — One amber payoff line showing where the fund finishes the period at any given index return. Colored bands mark the Target Range, Extended Range, and Loss Zone. The white NOW dot sits on the curve at today’s index level — so where the dot lands tells you how much cap and buffer are still in play.

Tonight’s Read — A one-line, plain-English summary under the chart. It’s tuned to the product type (buffer, uncapped, accelerated, dual-direction, etc.). For Near Cap funds it appends Wait for reset; the publication does not identify a replacement ticker.

Provider Link — Direct link to the fund’s page for the full factsheet.

Close the panel with the × button, clicking outside, or pressing Escape.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
IMAR
Innovator ETFs™ · EFA – 15% Buffer Annual
✓ Target Range
Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
~-23% ~-13.4% ~0% ~13.7% ~18% Fund Return (%) Index Return (%)
Buffer~-13.4%
Entry~0%
Cap~+13.7%
Below Buffer
Buffer Zone
Cap Ceiling
Target Range
Fund (now)
Index (now)
Tonight’s Read Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset
~0%
% Cap Used
~0%
% Buffer Used
~15.6%
Cap Yield
13.7%
Rem. Cap
13.4%
Rem. Buffer
320
Days Left
Step 7 of 8

Intelligence Dashboard

Below the tables, the Intelligence Dashboard surfaces the most actionable views in one place. Every ticker is clickable — clicking jumps you to that ETF’s row.

Top 10 Widget — One box, three views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch:

Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. In Range means currently inside the optimal entry zone for that period type. Amber = within 0.25% of the band; red = further away.

Asymmetry Ratio — Upside vs downside on a standardized ±10% index move. 15x means $15 gain per $1 risk. Higher is better. Funds with under 30 days left or non-standard structures are excluded.

Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Normalizes time horizons so a 60-day fund can be compared to a 300-day one.

Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — Tabbed widget. Resets = ETFs approaching reset within 8 days. Watchlist = pin up to 10 tickers tracked nightly with live status, cap, buffer, yield, and days. Sort by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Saved in your browser across sessions.

Volume Traded — Treemap of the 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any tile to jump straight to that ETF’s row.

Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
TOP 10
Closest to Target Range ▾
IMARIn Range
KJAN+0.18%
FOCT+0.31%
UPCOMING RESETS
WATCHLIST
SMAY3 days
QSPT7 days
VOLUME TRADED (PRIOR SESSION)
IMAR
SMAY
FOCT
KJAN
QSPT
Step 8 of 8

You're Ready

That's everything! Here's a quick nightly workflow:

1. Check the Stats Bar — glance at Near Entry count.

2. Use Filters — narrow by provider, status, or period.

3. Scan Near Entry — sort by Cap Yield or Days.

4. Open ETF Outcome Profiler — review outcome profile & key metrics.

5. Check the Dashboard — Top 10 views (Closest to Target / Asymmetry / Top Cap Yield), upcoming resets, your Watchlist, and Volume Traded.

6. Adjust the view to taste — open the sections you care about, narrow filters to the providers and periods you follow, then click Save Layout above the report so tomorrow night opens exactly the same way.

Data refresh: The report rebuilds nightly around 11 PM, Monday through Friday on non-holiday days. If you open it before that window, you’re looking at the prior session’s data.
Close this tutorial and the ? button at the bottom right will always be there if you need it again.
Outcome Radar™ is for informational & educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
✅
YOU'RE ALL SET
Close this overlay and start exploring the report.
311
ETFs Analyzed
1
Near Entry
0
Uncapped Near Entry
0
Accel Zone
1
Near Cap
1 Mo T-Bill
3.74%
3 Mo T-Bill
3.73%
6 Mo T-Bill
3.75%
12 Mo T-Bill
3.77%
SPY IV
14.8%
QQQ IV
20.8%
IWM IV
22.7%
EFA IV
16.6%
EEM IV
26.6%
RSP IV
14.4%
Provider
Innovator™ × First Trust™ × AllianzIM™ × TrueShares™ × iShares™ ×
Status
✓ Target Range × ✓ Extended Range × ✓ Near Entry × ⚡ Uncapped × Accel Zone × Near Cap ×
Period
✓ Quarterly × ✓ Semi-Annual × ✓ Annual × ✓ 2-Year ×
Showing all ETFs
▼ Intelligence Dashboard

Closest to Target Range

Fund Return distance from period's optimal entry band Entry Zone
# Ticker Fund Ret. Target Band Days Distance
1 UMAY +1.30% -1.29% to -0.29% 344d 1.59% away
2 UMAR +3.28% -1.29% to -0.29% 283d 3.57% away
3 UAPR +4.79% -1.29% to -0.29% 314d 5.08% away
4 EALT +5.61% -0.45% to +0.05% 40d 5.56% away

Asymmetry Ratio

Fund upside ÷ downside on a ±10% index move · 0.50% floor ±10% Index
# Ticker Idx Ret. Up 10% Dn 10% Ratio
1 AAPR +14.3% +10.4% -1.5% 7.1x
2 ZAPR +14.3% +4.0% -0.7% 5.8x
3 UAPR +14.3% +6.4% -1.2% 5.4x
4 ZMAY +3.4% +5.0% -1.4% 3.5x
5 APOC +14.3% +1.4% -0.5% 2.8x
6 ZMAR +8.2% +3.8% -2.1% 1.8x
7 UMAY +3.4% +9.6% -7.0% 1.4x
8 UMAR +8.2% +7.1% -5.7% 1.3x
9 EALT +14.3% +0.7% -1.4% 0.5x

Top Cap Yield

Rem. Cap ÷ Days × 365 · Min 30 days Annualized
# Ticker Rem. Cap Days Yield
1 DDTY +11.52% 344d 12.2%
2 UMAY +10.32% 344d 10.9%
3 XTAP +9.26% 314d 10.8%
4 UMAR +7.75% 283d 10.0%
5 DDTA +8.15% 314d 9.5%
6 XBAP +7.65% 314d 8.9%
7 XDSQ +0.97% 40d 8.8%
8 DDFY +8.03% 344d 8.5%
9 UAPR +7.11% 314d 8.3%
10 DDFA +6.47% 314d 7.5%
BGLD8d
FT+18.28%
Volume Traded 2026-05-21
#1QMMY274.0KFT · QQQ
#2BALT231.7KINNV · SPY
#3QCOC218.3KFT · QQQ
#4DMAY142.6KFT · SPY
#5GMAY118.9KFT · SPY
#6DDFY70.7KINNV · VOO
#7PMAY61.5KINNV · SPY
#8MAYW59.7KAIM · SPY
#9ZMAY59.3KINNV · VOO
#10JANI53.3K
First TrustInnovatorAllianzIM
0 / 10
Add up to 10 tickers to track

Implied Volatility — Reset Cap Outlook

1Y History
VIX 14.77 -22% below avg → Lower SPY reset caps likely VXN 20.77 -8% vs avg RVX 22.68 -6% vs avg
💎 Ultra Buffer Sweet Spot 1 ▼
Status⇅ Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Target
Range
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly
 First Trust™ ~18.3% ~2.1% 8 0.0% ~834% ~0%
Sort by:
BGLD 10% Buffer
Quarterly
Target
Range
▼
▲ Accelerated — Near Cap 1 ▼
Status⇅ Ticker Provider Rem.
Cap⇅		 Rem.
Buf⇅		 Days⇅ DBB⇅ Cap
Yld⇅		 Prob.⇅ View
Near Cap
XDSQVOO2x Accelerated
 Innovator™ ~1.0% ~0.0% 40 — ~8.9% ~65%
Sort by:
XDSQ 2x
Accelerated
Near Cap
▼

Independent Research & Trademark Notices

Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.

All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.

© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.

—
—
—
— View on Provider →
Modeled Outcome Profile at Expiration
Below Buffer
Buffer Zone
Cap Ceiling
Target Range
Fund (now)
Index (now)
~0%
% Cap Used
~0%
% Buffer Used
~0%
Cap Yield
~0%
Rem. Cap
~0%
Rem. Buffer
0
Days Left
Note: * All values shown are after-fee (net) values.  ** Probability estimates are model-based and not predictive of future results.  All data is sourced from publicly available sources.  Not affiliated with any Fund Company.  This publication does not constitute investment advice.
How to Use This Report
Intelligence Dashboard
The collapsible dashboard at the top provides a quick snapshot of the most important intelligence. Click the Intelligence Dashboard bar to expand or collapse it. Every ticker and volume box in the dashboard is clickable — click it and the report automatically switches tabs, expands the right section, and scrolls to that ETF’s row (which briefly flashes amber so you can see where you landed).

Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
  • Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
  • Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
  • Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.

Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
  • Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
  • Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.

Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.

Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
Tab Navigation
The report is organized into 8 tabs by buffer structure: 100% Buffer, Standard 9%, Buffer 10-15%, Buffer 20%+, Uncapped, Dual Direction, 3&6 Month Buffers, and Specialty (accelerated 2x/3x products). Click a tab to see only the ETFs in that category.
Executive Summary (top of each tab)
Every tab opens with a small Executive Summary pill above the tables. Click it to expand a one-paragraph plain-English read on what’s happening in that tab tonight — how many funds sit in Target/Extended Range, how many are Near Cap, how much time is left in the period, and whether comparable roll candidates exist. Language is descriptive, not prescriptive. Every summary ends with For informational purposes, not investment advice. on its own line.
Tonight’s Read (under each chart)
When you open an ETF’s detail panel, the Tonight’s Read strip sits just under the Outcome Profile chart. It’s a single line tuned to the product type — for example:
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Reading the Outcome Profile Chart
The chart plots one amber payoff line (net of fund fees) against index return. Colored bands mark the Target Range (green), Extended Range (amber), and Loss Zone (red). The white NOW dot sits on the payoff curve at today’s index level — where the dot lands tells you how much cap and buffer are still in play without having to read any numbers. Dashed vertical reference lines mark the BUFFER, START, and CAP levels.
Expand Sections That Interest You
Within each tab, ETFs are grouped into Near Entry (closest to original starting parameters), Near Cap (approaching ceiling — minimal remaining upside in this period), and All Others (the complete universe for that buffer type). Click the section header to expand or collapse it. Near Cap sections start open because they are time-sensitive informational alerts; All Others starts collapsed.
Near Cap Funds
When an ETF is approaching its cap, Tonight’s Read shows “Pinned to cap · [upside left] · [days] · Wait for reset.” The publication does not identify a specific replacement ticker for any individual fund. Subscribers who want to evaluate alternatives can use the full database and the filter / sort controls to identify funds in Target Range with structurally similar parameters (same underlying index, comparable buffer %).
Sort to Find What Matters
Click any column header on desktop to sort that section. On mobile, use the sort bar below each table. Try sorting Near Entry by Distance from Target Range to see which ETFs are closest to the ideal starting point, or by Cap Yield for the highest annualized return potential, or by Days to see what resets soonest.
Use Filters to Narrow Down
The provider, period, and status chips at the top let you isolate specific fund families, time horizons, or signal types. The ticker search box lets you jump straight to a specific ETF regardless of tab.
Save Your Layout
When you’re viewing the report through Outcome Radar, a Save Layout button sits just above the report. Click it to remember exactly how you have things set up — which tab is active, which sections are open or collapsed, which filter chips are on, and which executive summaries you have expanded. The next time you sign in, the report opens with that same layout. Reset Layout (next to it) clears the saved view and returns the report to its default state. This is per-user, so each advisor’s layout is private to their account.
View Details & Payoff Curves
Click "View" on any ETF row to open a side panel with the full payoff curve, key metrics, and position visualization. This shows you exactly where the ETF sits within its outcome period.
Toggle Quick Scan Mode
The Full Sweep / Quick Scan toggle at the top right simplifies the view by hiding the secondary metrics. Quick Scan keeps Status, Ticker, Provider, Days, and Cap Yield — the columns that drive a fast read.
Section Guide
Near Entry — ETFs trading closest to their ideal starting band (per-period optimal range), with maximum cap and buffer intact. Sorted by distance from target range.

Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.

Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.

Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.

All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.
Glossary of Terms
Remaining Cap (Rem. Cap)
The maximum upside return still available before the fund hits its ceiling for the period. Higher = more room to grow. All values are net of fund fees.
Remaining Buffer (Rem. Buf)
The amount of index-side decline the fund can still absorb before the investor begins to lose money. Shrinks as the index falls, stays intact as the index rises.
Days
Calendar days left until the outcome period resets. At reset, the fund starts a new cap and buffer cycle.
DBB (Downside Before Buffer)
The amount of fund loss before the buffer starts.
Cap Yield (Cap Yld)
The remaining cap expressed as an annualized return. Lets you compare ETFs with different time horizons on equal footing.
Probability (Prob.)
A derived ratio expressing the option-market-implied likelihood that the underlying index will reach the cap level over the remaining outcome period. Calculated from current implied volatility and time remaining using a standard Black-Scholes model. This is a mathematical observation of what the options market currently implies, not a forecast, prediction, or recommendation by Outcome Radar. The value changes as market conditions change.
Target Range
The fund is trading closest to its starting price minus the fund fee — the ideal entry zone where you get the most cap and the most buffer. Shown as the narrow green band on the Outcome Profile chart.
Extended Range
Still near the starting price but slightly outside the tightest zone. Cap and buffer are still largely intact. Shown as the wider amber band on the chart.
Near Cap
The fund is at or near its maximum return for the period. Little upside remains, but downside risk is still present.
Acceleration Zone
Leveraged ETFs (2x or 3x) that multiply index gains above a threshold. Position matters — being near the start or threshold changes the risk/reward.
% Cap Used / % Buffer Used
How much of the original cap or buffer has already been consumed by index movement since the period started.
NOW Marker
The white dot on the Outcome Profile chart, positioned on the payoff curve at today’s index level. Shows at a glance where the fund currently sits along its outcome.
Tonight’s Read
The one-line plain-English strip under each chart that summarizes a fund’s state in the context of its product type — e.g., “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”.
Reset
The end of an outcome period. The fund closes out its current options package and opens a new period with a fresh cap and the same stated buffer.
Roll
Selling an existing fund (often one that is Near Cap) and buying a comparable freshly-reset fund so the investor restores a full cap and full buffer rather than waiting for the current fund to reset.
Executive Summary
The one-paragraph plain-English read at the top of each tab. Descriptive, not prescriptive; always ends with “For informational purposes, not investment advice.”
Save Layout
A per-user setting that remembers your preferred view of the report (active tab, open sections, filter chips, expanded summaries) and re-applies it every time you sign in. Available when viewing the report through Outcome Radar. Use the Save Layout button above the report to save, Reset Layout to clear.
Watchlist
A personal list of up to 10 tickers you want to track nightly. Found under the Watchlist tab in the dashboard (next to Upcoming Resets). Each card shows the fund’s signal status, remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Sortable by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click a card to jump to that ETF. Saved in your browser across sessions.
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