Outcome Radar - May 22, 2026
Today's analysis: 9 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 46 near cap. Total 57 signals.
8 of 52 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 1 is in Target/Extended Range, with a full 9.28% buffer and 364 days remaining against SPY. The other 43 are mid-period. On a pullback, some of those mid-period funds could move toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~15.5% | ~9.3% | 364 | ~-1.5% | ~15.5% | ~21% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~20.9% | 27 | ~-15.8% | ~4.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~15.3% | 9 | ~-13.6% | ~10.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~14.0% | 9 | ~-14.1% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.6% | 27 | ~-15.3% | ~5.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~15.3% | 27 | ~-13.0% | ~5.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~1.1% | ~12.9% | 39 | ~-12.5% | ~9.8% | ~81% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~11.6% | 39 | ~-13.1% | ~10.2% | ~79% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~9.9% | 27 | ~-12.7% | ~17.3% | ~59% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
12 of 88 funds are Near Cap, approaching the top of their payoff curves and the end of their reset cycles—existing holders may want to evaluate their positions. 4 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a 14.51% buffer and 364 days remaining; the other 72 are mid-period. The full tab runs on annual cycles, split across SPY, EFA, IWM, QQQ, and EEM.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.7% | ~13.6% | 282 | ~-0.2% | ~17.7% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~15.9% | ~14.3% | 364 | ~-1.7% | ~15.9% | ~21% | |
| Extended Range |
GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.3% | ~14.3% | 364 | ~-1.4% | ~12.3% | ~27% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~9.8% | ~14.5% | 364 | ~-1.2% | ~9.8% | ~31% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~24.9% | 9 | ~-13.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~24.2% | 9 | ~-14.7% | ~2.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~21.6% | 9 | ~-11.2% | ~4.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~26.1% | 39 | ~-11.6% | ~7.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~22.8% | 27 | ~-9.5% | ~3.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~22.3% | 39 | ~-12.4% | ~6.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.6% | 39 | ~-14.1% | ~8.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~21.3% | 27 | ~-10.9% | ~4.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~19.2% | 39 | ~-10.3% | ~6.4% | ~91% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~18.4% | 27 | ~-11.0% | ~9.2% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~19.9% | 56 | ~-8.6% | ~5.1% | ~87% | |
| Near Cap | IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~14.8% | 9 | ~-12.6% | ~14.2% | ~82% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
8 of 52 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 2 are in Target/Extended Range, including one with a full buffer intact and 364 days remaining on a SPY underlying. The other 42 are mid-period. On further upside, additional funds could migrate toward the cap edge.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~12.2% | ~24.3% | 364 | ~-6.3% | ~12.2% | ~27% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~6.0% | ~99.0% | 364 | ~-1.0% | ~6.0% | ~39% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~26.8% | 9 | ~-9.9% | ~6.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJUNSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~33.4% | 9 | ~-15.2% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~66.9% | 27 | ~-6.4% | ~3.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~29.1% | 27 | ~-15.1% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~27.5% | 56 | ~-10.0% | ~6.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~25.3% | 27 | ~-2.7% | ~3.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~24.6% | 39 | ~-9.1% | ~6.5% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~31.7% | 39 | ~-14.4% | ~5.8% | ~92% |
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
Buffer
2 of 26 uncapped annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range; the other 24 are mid-period. The freshest of those 2 carries a 14.52% buffer with 223 days remaining and -2.81% downside before the buffer engages. Both are EFA-based, while the broader tab is predominantly SPY.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 223 | ~-2.8% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| Target Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.3% | 343 | ~-3.5% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Range
Uncapped Buffer
Range
3 of 30 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 1 is in Target/Extended Range with a full 50.85% buffer and 329 days remaining. The other 26 are mid-period across a mix of annual and two-year cycles, with two six-month funds also present.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~50.9% | 329 | ~-1.6% | ~5.9% | ~48% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | ZJUNSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~93.1% | 9 | ~-6.9% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~84.4% | 39 | ~-15.6% | ~2.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.9% | 39 | ~-6.1% | ~5.5% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
Protection
4 of 25 dual-direction funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; the remaining 21 are mid-period. All 25 are annual-cycle funds, predominantly SPY-referenced. On a pullback, mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range, where the inverse-decline payoff layer would be more fully in effect.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~17.4% | 39 | ~-6.2% | ~3.1% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~21.8% | 39 | ~-7.8% | ~4.0% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~12.3% | 39 | ~-4.8% | ~4.8% | ~47% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~14.7% | 39 | ~-10.7% | ~6.6% | ~46% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
5 of 23 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves with remaining cap compressed, making them the roll-evaluation names for existing holders this cycle; the other 18 are mid-period across a mix of 17 quarterly and 6 six-month resets. No funds are in Target/Extended Range tonight. Coverage spans 12 SPY-referenced funds alongside EFA, IWM, QQQ, EEM, and VOO positions, so roll decisions vary by underlying depending on what a client holds.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~28.1% | 39 | ~-3.5% | ~1.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~22.9% | 39 | ~-4.7% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.4% | ~16.5% | 39 | ~-7.1% | ~3.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~11.4% | 39 | ~-5.8% | ~3.2% | ~88% | |
| Near Cap | SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~10.5% | 9 | ~-7.1% | ~13.4% | ~66% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
6-Month
6 of 15 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with the freshest carrying a 9% buffer and 131 days remaining on an SPY-based cycle. 1 fund is Near Cap—approaching the top of its payoff curve—and existing holders may want to evaluate their position ahead of reset; the remaining 8 are mid-period. The tab spans SPY, QQQ, VOO, and GLD underlyings, with 13 annual-cycle funds and 2 quarterly.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~17.9% | ~1.0% | 7 | 0.0% | ~931% | ~0% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 39 | — | ~5.8% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~9.0% | 39 | 0.0% | ~5.9% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~0.0% | 39 | — | ~6.6% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~0.0% | 39 | — | ~7.2% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 39 | — | ~5.1% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.5% | ~9.0% | 131 | 0.0% | ~9.7% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.