Outcome Radar - May 28, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 0 near acceleration, 58 near cap. Total 63 signals.
9 of 52 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; the remaining 43 are mid-period. The 36 SPY-referenced funds account for the majority of the tab, with the balance spread across EEM, IVV, QQQ, and RSP. On a pullback, mid-period funds could move toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~16.2% | 3 | ~-13.5% | ~32.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~14.6% | 3 | ~-14.3% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~23.3% | 21 | ~-15.9% | ~3.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~20.1% | 21 | ~-15.4% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FJUNSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~16.0% | 21 | ~-13.1% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~13.5% | 33 | ~-12.8% | ~8.0% | ~88% | |
| Near Cap | BJULSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~12.1% | 33 | ~-13.4% | ~7.9% | ~86% | |
| Near Cap | FJULSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.1% | ~13.3% | 50 | ~-11.9% | ~8.4% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | RSJNRSP10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~10.1% | 21 | ~-13.2% | ~13.4% | ~66% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
15 of 88 annual-cycle funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 2 are in Target/Extended Range, with the freshest carrying a 15.06% buffer and 358 days remaining. The other 71 are mid-period across SPY, EFA, IWM, QQQ, and EEM. On a pullback, that mid-period concentration could shift some funds back toward Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~13.1% | ~13.6% | 276 | ~-0.8% | ~17.3% | ~21% | |
| Extended Range |
XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~9.3% | ~15.1% | 358 | ~-1.7% | ~9.5% | ~34% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~25.6% | 3 | ~-14.8% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~26.4% | 3 | ~-13.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~22.2% | 3 | ~-11.4% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~28.3% | 33 | ~-11.9% | ~5.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJULQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~23.7% | 33 | ~-12.6% | ~4.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~23.5% | 21 | ~-9.5% | ~3.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJULIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~22.8% | 33 | ~-14.4% | ~6.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~22.1% | 21 | ~-11.0% | ~4.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | IJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~15.0% | 3 | ~-12.9% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KAUGIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~22.2% | 64 | ~-13.9% | ~7.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NAUGQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.3% | ~22.8% | 64 | ~-11.9% | ~7.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~19.9% | 33 | ~-10.5% | ~5.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | YJUNEFA15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.6% | 21 | ~-11.3% | ~7.3% | ~94% | |
| Near Cap | XJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~20.6% | 50 | ~-8.7% | ~4.7% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | GJULSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~19.2% | 50 | ~-10.1% | ~6.9% | ~87% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
10 of 52 are Near Cap, with remaining cap compressed toward zero across this annual-cycle group—existing holders may warrant evaluation of their reset options. 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, freshest of the lot with 358 days remaining and a full buffer still essentially intact against its SPY reference asset. The other 41 are mid-period; on a pullback, some of those Near-Cap funds could shift back into a more balanced profile.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
MAYMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.8% | ~98.8% | 358 | ~-1.2% | ~5.9% | ~42% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | JUNWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~27.6% | 3 | ~-9.9% | ~14.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJUNSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~34.0% | 3 | ~-15.2% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JUNMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~67.2% | 21 | ~-6.5% | ~2.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJUNSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~29.6% | 21 | ~-15.2% | ~4.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCJLQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~28.8% | 50 | ~-10.2% | ~5.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SQMXSPY50% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~26.1% | 21 | ~-2.7% | ~3.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.6% | ~25.3% | 33 | ~-9.2% | ~6.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | JULMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~66.0% | 50 | ~-6.1% | ~4.2% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | UJULSPY30% Ultra Buffer |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~32.2% | 33 | ~-14.6% | ~5.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DJULSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~27.2% | 50 | ~-14.6% | ~6.5% | ~87% |
Annual
Buffer
Annual
Annual
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
All 26 uncapped funds are mid-period annual-cycle funds, 24 referenced to SPY and 2 to EFA. No signal counts tonight.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
3 of 30 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; 1 is in Target/Extended Range, with 323 days remaining and a full buffer intact. The other 26 are mid-period across a mix of annual and two-year outcome periods.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.2% | ~51.2% | 323 | ~-1.8% | ~5.8% | ~50% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | ZJUNSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.0% | ~93.0% | 3 | ~-7.0% | Uncapped | N/A | |
| Near Cap | AJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~84.3% | 33 | ~-15.7% | ~1.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZJULSPY100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~93.8% | 33 | ~-6.2% | ~5.4% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
Protection
4 of 25 dual-direction funds are approaching the top of their payoff curve and may warrant roll evaluation by existing holders; the remaining 21 are mid-period. The category is entirely annual-cycle, with underlying exposure concentrated in SPY (20 funds) and VOO (4 funds). On a pullback, mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range, where the inverse-decline layer would again be more fully in effect.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDNQQQQDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~19.2% | 33 | ~-6.3% | ~2.3% | ~49% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~15.2% | 33 | ~-11.1% | ~3.3% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDSQSPYDual Direction 5% Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~13.1% | 33 | ~-5.0% | ~3.8% | ~48% | |
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~22.6% | 33 | ~-7.8% | ~5.2% | ~47% |
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 10% Annual
Direction 5% Quarterly
Direction 15% Annual
9 of 23 funds are approaching the top of their payoff curves, with remaining cap compressing toward zero — existing holders may warrant evaluating their roll options given the short reset cycles here. The other 14 are mid-period. With 17 quarterly and 6 six-month funds spread across SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, and VOO, the Near-Cap concentration is worth monitoring; on a pullback, mid-period funds could shift toward Target/Extended Range quickly given how tight these outcome windows are.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QBQFQQQ15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.1% | ~29.7% | 33 | ~-3.6% | ~1.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBUFQQQ10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~24.5% | 33 | ~-4.9% | ~3.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBQVQQQ5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~18.3% | 33 | ~-7.2% | ~3.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBKFIWM15% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~23.9% | 33 | ~-3.9% | ~3.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | ZALTSPY10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~18.6% | 33 | ~-3.9% | ~3.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | RBUFIWM10% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~17.9% | 33 | ~-5.7% | ~4.5% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QBSVSPY5% Buffer Quarterly |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~12.3% | 33 | ~-5.8% | ~3.2% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | EALTVOO5-15% Buffer Quarterly |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.3% | 33 | ~-10.5% | ~5.5% | ~93% | |
| Near Cap | SIXDSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~11.1% | 3 | ~-7.4% | ~1.2% | ~91% |
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
6-Month
9 of 15 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with the 6 mid-period funds the only others to note tonight. The 9 at-threshold funds span SPY, QQQ, VOO, and GLD underlyings; the freshest carries a 9% buffer with 125 days remaining and is currently at the reference asset's starting level. On a pullback, mid-period funds could move back toward threshold as well.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~17.9% | ~0.8% | 1 | 0.0% | ~6515% | — |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 33 | — | ~5.4% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~9.0% | 33 | 0.0% | ~4.2% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~0.0% | 33 | — | ~6.3% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~0.0% | 33 | — | ~5.9% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~0.0% | 33 | — | ~4.3% | ~90% | |
| Near Cap | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.6% | ~0.0% | 125 | — | ~10.6% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~9.0% | 125 | 0.0% | ~8.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.7% | ~0.0% | 125 | — | ~10.7% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.