Outcome Radar - May 4, 2026
Today's analysis: 16 near entry, 9 near acceleration, 32 near cap. Total 61 signals.
6 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap — existing holders may want to evaluate a roll, as standard 9–10% buffer structures have reasonably available comparables across issuers. 3 are in Target/Extended Range with full buffer largely intact; 43 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~16.0% | ~8.1% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~16.2% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~15.6% | ~9.2% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~15.8% | ~20% | |
| Extended Range |
FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~13.3% | ~9.3% | 347 | ~-1.7% | ~14.0% | ~24% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~19.5% | 45 | ~-15.5% | ~5.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~12.5% | 11 | ~-13.0% | ~6.0% | ~95% | ||
| Near Cap | QJUNQQQ10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~15.0% | 45 | ~-14.5% | ~10.8% | ~92% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~11.7% | 27 | ~-13.6% | ~9.5% | ~84% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.7% | ~12.9% | 27 | ~-13.6% | ~9.2% | ~84% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~1.1% | ~13.1% | 45 | ~-12.4% | ~8.9% | ~81% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
12 of 88 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap — existing holders may want to evaluate a roll, as standard-buffer replacements are broadly available across issuers. 8 are in Target/Extended Range with full buffer intact; 68 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.7% | ~11.7% | 300 | 0.0% | ~17.9% | ~16% | |
| Extended Range |
KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~17.3% | ~13.9% | 361 | ~-1.1% | ~17.5% | ~18% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~11.5% | ~13.1% | 272 | ~-1.8% | ~15.5% | ~23% | |
| Extended Range |
NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.9% | ~14.4% | 361 | ~-1.3% | ~15.0% | ~22% | |
| Extended Range |
IMAYEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~14.8% | ~12.6% | 361 | ~-1.1% | ~15.0% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~12.0% | ~14.0% | 361 | ~-1.0% | ~12.2% | ~26% | |
| Extended Range |
GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~10.7% | ~14.4% | 347 | ~-1.5% | ~11.3% | ~29% | |
| Extended Range |
XAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~8.9% | ~14.6% | 347 | ~-1.4% | ~9.4% | ~33% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~21.6% | 11 | ~-14.2% | ~5.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~20.8% | 11 | ~-13.3% | ~4.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~23.0% | 27 | ~-14.3% | ~6.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~20.2% | 11 | ~-9.4% | ~3.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | EJULEEM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~24.6% | 57 | ~-11.4% | ~6.8% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~21.3% | 27 | ~-13.1% | ~6.8% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.2% | ~18.7% | 11 | ~-10.9% | ~7.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~19.2% | 27 | ~-11.0% | ~5.0% | ~94% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.4% | ~20.4% | 57 | ~-13.6% | ~9.1% | ~93% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~20.5% | 45 | ~-9.1% | ~5.3% | ~93% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.9% | ~19.3% | 45 | ~-10.4% | ~7.1% | ~89% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.7% | ~13.7% | 27 | ~-11.4% | ~23.1% | ~49% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
5 of 52 annual-cycle funds are Near Cap; existing holders may want to evaluate a roll, though comparable 20%-plus-buffer alternatives can be limited at any given reset month. 1 is in Target/Extended Range with full buffer largely intact, and 46 are mid-period.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
MAYWSPY20% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~10.5% | ~19.2% | 361 | ~-0.9% | ~10.6% | ~29% |
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~93.4% | 11 | ~-6.6% | ~3.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.1% | ~26.6% | 11 | ~-15.5% | ~3.6% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.4% | ~24.6% | 27 | ~-9.9% | ~5.5% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.4% | ~31.8% | 27 | ~-14.9% | ~5.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~27.3% | 45 | ~-14.7% | ~6.7% | ~90% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Buffer
Annual
4 of 26 uncapped annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range with full buffer intact and no ceiling constraining the upside profile; the other 22 are mid-period. On a pullback, additional mid-period funds could move into Target/Extended Range.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 272 | ~-4.5% | ~3.8% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
MARUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 300 | ~-4.5% | ~4.0% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
ARLUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~15.3% | 331 | ~-8.1% | ~5.2% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
MAYUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.1% | 361 | ~-1.1% | ~3.6% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
2 of 30 are Near Cap; given limited comparable roll alternatives in this tier, existing holders may find it simpler to let these reset. 2 more are in Target/Extended Range, with 26 mid-period across annual and two-year cycles.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
ZMAYVOO100% Protection |
Innovator™ | ~6.3% | ~99.0% | 361 | ~-1.0% | ~6.3% | ~37% | |
| Extended Range |
APXMSPY100% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.8% | ~49.5% | 347 | ~-1.2% | ~6.1% | ~39% |
Protection
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.3% | ~93.4% | 27 | ~-6.6% | ~3.8% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.7% | ~84.8% | 57 | ~-15.2% | ~4.6% | >95% |
Protection
Protection
2 of 25 dual-direction funds are Near Cap; the remaining 23 are mid-period across annual cycles. With the inverse-decline payoff largely realized for those 2, existing holders may evaluate a roll, though comparable dual-direction replacements are limited — letting them reset may be the more practical path.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DDFLSPYDual Direction 15% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~19.6% | 57 | ~-7.2% | ~6.7% | ~45% | |
| Near Cap | DDTLSPYDual Direction 10% Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.6% | ~12.6% | 57 | ~-9.9% | ~9.9% | ~43% |
Direction 15% Annual
Direction 10% Annual
1 of 23 is in Target/Extended Range with full buffer intact; the other 22 are mid-period, split 17 quarterly and 6 six-month. On a pullback, some of those mid-period funds could warrant a closer look.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
SIXZSPY10% Buffer 6-Month |
AllianzIM™ | ~7.5% | ~9.6% | 180 | ~-0.6% | ~15.1% | ~28% |
6-Month
Range
14 of 15 accelerated funds are at their starting thresholds, with full 2x upside participation available through period end; 1 is Near Cap, where remaining cap has largely compressed — existing holders may evaluate a roll, though comparable accelerated replacements are limited and a reset may be the practical outcome.
For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Range |
BGLDGLD10% Buffer Quarterly |
First Trust™ | ~18.2% | ~3.5% | 25 | 0.0% | ~266% | ~0% |
Quarterly
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~6.9% | ~0.0% | 149 | — | ~17.0% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~4.6% | ~9.0% | 149 | 0.0% | ~11.2% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~6.0% | ~0.0% | 149 | — | ~14.7% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTJAQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~10.9% | ~0.0% | 241 | — | ~16.5% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBJASPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.3% | ~9.0% | 241 | 0.0% | ~11.1% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTJASPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.5% | ~0.0% | 241 | — | ~14.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~11.3% | ~0.0% | 331 | — | ~12.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~8.7% | ~9.0% | 331 | 0.0% | ~9.6% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~10.7% | ~0.0% | 331 | — | ~11.8% | ~35% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.6% | ~0.0% | 57 | — | ~10.4% | ~80% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.3% | ~9.0% | 57 | 0.0% | ~8.3% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.7% | ~0.0% | 57 | — | ~10.8% | ~65% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQVOO2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.8% | ~0.0% | 57 | — | ~11.7% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.4% | ~0.0% | 57 | — | ~9.0% | ~65% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, AllianzIM™, TrueShares™, and iShares™ (BlackRock) are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets & Watchlist — A tabbed widget with two views:
• Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
• Watchlist — Pin up to 10 tickers you want to track every night. Each card shows the ETF’s current signal status (Near Entry, Near Cap, Target Range, etc.), remaining cap, buffer, cap yield, and days to reset. Use the sort bar to reorder by Status, Days, Cap, or Yield. Click any card to jump to that ETF’s row. Your watchlist is saved in your browser and persists across sessions.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Buffer funds in Target Range: “Full buffer intact · ~13.7% upside remaining · 320 days to reset”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with a comparable replacement: “Pinned to cap · ~0.8% upside left · 45 days · Consider rolling to KJAN”
• Buffer funds Near Cap with no suitable match (or under ~30 days left): “Pinned to cap · ~0.4% upside left · 12 days · Wait for reset”
• Uncapped / Accelerated / Dual Direction / Floor / 100% Protection funds each get their own phrasing.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.