Outcome Radar - April 17, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 35 near cap. Total 49 signals.
With full principal protection baked in, the caps across this group are modest by design — and 21 of 25 funds are mid-period, quietly absorbing that trade-off as their outcome windows play out. Only 1 fund is in Target/Extended Range, while 3 are Near Cap; existing holders in those three should be walking through roll mechanics now, given how little cushion remains between current levels and the ceiling. The mix of 15 annual, 8 two-year, and 2 six-month cycles adds some calendar complexity worth tracking. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
AIOOSPY100% Protection |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~99.1% | 75 | ~-1.1% | ~17% Partic. | N/A |
Protection
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.3% | 14 | ~-6.7% | ~3.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.7% | 45 | ~-6.3% | ~4.9% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~85.2% | 75 | ~-14.8% | ~6.0% | >95% |
53 of 64 annual-cycle funds are mid-period — this category is mostly cruising along as baseline protection tends to do. Only 2 sit in Target/Extended Range, while 9 are Near Cap, and those are the ones where existing holders should be walking through roll mechanics with clients now. At 9 funds, that's a meaningful cluster of conversations to queue up this week. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.0% | ~13.9% | 318 | 0.0% | ~17.2% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~11.8% | ~15.3% | 290 | ~-1.6% | ~14.9% | ~27% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~12.7% | 14 | ~-15.4% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.5% | 14 | ~-13.6% | ~11.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.9% | 14 | ~-15.8% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.2% | 14 | ~-14.7% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~20.6% | 14 | ~-12.2% | ~2.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~10.7% | 45 | ~-12.9% | ~12.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.4% | 45 | ~-14.1% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~18.6% | 45 | ~-12.5% | ~9.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~18.1% | 45 | ~-10.5% | ~7.9% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
76 of 88 annual-cycle funds in this moderate-buffer tier are mid-period, with nothing currently in Target/Extended Range — so the distribution skews heavily toward the middle of the outcome window. The 12 Near-Cap funds are where existing holders should be having a conversation: at these levels, roll mechanics deserve a real look, particularly in positions tracking non-SPY benchmarks like small-cap or international indexes where the cap dynamics can differ meaningfully from plain-vanilla equity exposure. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~30.4% | 1 | ~-17.0% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~16.9% | 1 | ~-15.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.1% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCAPQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~31.5% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~10.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~14.1% | 14 | ~-14.8% | ~9.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~25.7% | 29 | ~-15.0% | ~8.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~11.4% | 29 | ~-12.3% | ~12.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.4% | 29 | ~-10.6% | ~7.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.1% | 29 | ~-12.6% | ~10.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~20.1% | 29 | ~-13.9% | ~7.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.8% | 29 | ~-9.2% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~18.3% | 63 | ~-14.9% | ~7.8% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
29 of 37 annual-cycle funds in the deep-buffer tier are mid-period tonight, with only 2 in Target/Extended Range — so the category is largely in a steady state across the board. The more active signal is at the other end: 6 funds are Near Cap, and existing holders there have a real decision to walk through — whether the protection remaining in the current period still fits the client's profile or whether rolling into a fresh outcome makes more sense. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~44.9% | 274 | ~-1.6% | ~7.1% | ~39% | |
| Extended Range |
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~46.7% | 309 | ~-1.5% | ~6.5% | ~40% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.1% | 1 | ~-6.9% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~26.1% | 14 | ~-10.6% | ~6.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~32.9% | 14 | ~-15.7% | ~3.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~93.7% | 29 | ~-6.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~23.5% | 45 | ~-9.3% | ~7.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~31.0% | 45 | ~-14.4% | ~7.2% | >95% |
11 of these 14 annual-cycle funds are mid-period, with no cap ceiling to crowd the conversation — the structure simply lets gains run. 3 funds are in Target/Extended Range, and with zero Near-Cap funds tonight, roll mechanics aren't on the table for any existing holder. The dominant story here is straightforward accumulation across the majority of the lineup. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 259 | 0.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 259 | 0.0% | ~3.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 290 | 0.0% | ~3.8% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
All 23 funds in this annual-cycle category are mid-period tonight, with nothing near the cap end and nothing sitting back at starting levels. That uniformity is actually the story — a structure built for directional ambiguity has its entire lineup in the phase where the inverse-decline layer and upside participation are both still live and unresolved. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
All 26 Specialty funds are mid-period tonight — no funds near their starting levels, none approaching their caps. The mix spans quarterly, 6-month, and annual cycles, with the 19 quarterly products meaning a meaningful portion of this group rotates through outcome periods faster than most of the broader lineup, keeping the category in near-constant mid-cycle flux. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~21.6% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.8% | ~9.0% | 167 | 0.0% | ~12.7% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~16.8% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.7% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~14.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~9.0% | 349 | 0.0% | ~10.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.2% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~12.8% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.3% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.9% | ~9.0% | 75 | 0.0% | ~9.2% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.2% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~15.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.6% | ~35% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~11.5% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.