Outcome Radar - April 17, 2026
Today's analysis: 5 near entry, 6 near acceleration, 35 near cap. Total 49 signals.
21 of 25 funds are mid-period tonight — unsurprising for a full-protection category where the deliberate trade-off of lower caps tends to keep portfolios anchored rather than racing toward their ceiling. That said, 3 funds are Near Cap, and existing holders there have a real decision to walk through: at this stage of the outcome period, a roll conversation is worth having with clients who prioritize keeping full downside protection intact. Only 1 fund sits in Target/Extended Range across a mix of 15 annual, 8 two-year, and 2 six-month cycles. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
AIOOSPY100% Protection |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~99.1% | 75 | ~-1.1% | ~17% Partic. | N/A |
Protection
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~93.3% | 14 | ~-6.7% | ~3.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.6% | ~93.7% | 45 | ~-6.3% | ~4.9% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~1.2% | ~85.2% | 75 | ~-14.8% | ~6.0% | >95% |
53 of 64 annual-cycle funds are mid-period, which is the baseline story here — this is the workhorse tier running its course. Only 2 are in Target/Extended Range, keeping the starting-level conversation short tonight. The sharper focus is on the 9 Near-Cap funds, where existing holders should be walking through roll mechanics with clients to decide whether staying in still fits the original objective. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
IMAREFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~15.0% | ~13.9% | 318 | 0.0% | ~17.2% | ~19% | |
| Extended Range |
IFEBEFA15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~11.8% | ~15.3% | 290 | ~-1.6% | ~14.9% | ~27% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | BMAYSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.2% | ~12.7% | 14 | ~-15.4% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.5% | ~16.5% | 14 | ~-13.6% | ~11.7% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | KMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.9% | 14 | ~-15.8% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NMAYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~22.2% | 14 | ~-14.7% | ~1.6% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~20.6% | 14 | ~-12.2% | ~2.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | BJUNSPY9% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.5% | ~10.7% | 45 | ~-12.9% | ~12.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | KJUNIWM15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~0.8% | ~21.4% | 45 | ~-14.1% | ~6.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | NJUNQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.1% | ~18.6% | 45 | ~-12.5% | ~9.3% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | PJUNSPY15% Buffer Annual |
Innovator™ | ~1.0% | ~18.1% | 45 | ~-10.5% | ~7.9% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
With 0 funds in Target/Extended Range and 76 of 88 annual-cycle funds settled into mid-period, the weight of this category sits squarely in the middle — modest protection in play, outcome periods quietly accumulating. The 12 Near-Cap funds are where existing holders in this moderate-buffer tier should focus: with several tracking non-SPY indexes like QQQ and IWM, roll mechanics here aren't one-size-fits-all and deserve an index-aware conversation with clients. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | DAPRSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~30.4% | 1 | ~-17.0% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FAPRSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~16.9% | 1 | ~-15.6% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GAPRSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~23.1% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~0.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QCAPQQQ20% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~31.5% | 1 | ~-13.1% | ~10.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | MAYTSPY10% Buffer Annual |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.3% | ~14.1% | 14 | ~-14.8% | ~9.1% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | DMAYSPY25% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.7% | ~25.7% | 29 | ~-15.0% | ~8.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | FMAYSPY10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.0% | ~11.4% | 29 | ~-12.3% | ~12.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | GMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~17.4% | 29 | ~-10.6% | ~7.9% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | QMMYQQQ15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.8% | ~18.1% | 29 | ~-12.6% | ~10.7% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | SMAYIWM15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.6% | ~20.1% | 29 | ~-13.9% | ~7.4% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | XMAYSPY15% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~0.4% | ~18.8% | 29 | ~-9.2% | ~5.0% | >95% | |
| Near Cap | TJUNEEM10% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~1.3% | ~18.3% | 63 | ~-14.9% | ~7.8% | >95% |
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
29 of 37 annual-cycle funds in this deep-protection tier are mid-period, which is the baseline story here. Only 2 are in Target/Extended Range, while 6 have pushed Near Cap — existing holders in those six should be walking through roll mechanics now, weighing whether the compressed upside still fits the client's original rationale for reaching into the 20%+ buffer tier. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Range |
JANMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.3% | ~44.9% | 274 | ~-1.6% | ~7.1% | ~39% | |
| Extended Range |
FEBMSPY50% Buffer Annual |
First Trust™ | ~5.5% | ~46.7% | 309 | ~-1.5% | ~6.5% | ~40% |
Annual
Range
Annual
Range
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.0% | ~93.1% | 1 | ~-6.9% | ~0.0% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.2% | ~26.1% | 14 | ~-10.6% | ~6.3% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.1% | ~32.9% | 14 | ~-15.7% | ~3.4% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | First Trust™ | ~0.3% | ~93.7% | 29 | ~-6.3% | ~4.2% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | AllianzIM™ | ~0.9% | ~23.5% | 45 | ~-9.3% | ~7.1% | >95% | ||
| Near Cap | Innovator™ | ~0.9% | ~31.0% | 45 | ~-14.4% | ~7.2% | >95% |
3 of these 14 annual-cycle funds are in Target/Extended Range, meaning existing holders still have the full uncapped upside thesis intact but at levels close to where they started. With 0 funds Near Cap, there's no roll conversation to have right now — the real weight of the category sits in the 11 mid-period funds, which have absorbed some movement in either direction without hitting either extreme of their outcome range. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Thresh.⇅ | Prob. | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Near Threshold |
JANIEFA15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 259 | 0.0% | ~2.4% Spread | N/A | |
| * Near Threshold |
JANUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.7% | 259 | 0.0% | ~3.7% Spread | N/A | |
| Extended Range |
FEBUSPY15% Uncapped Buffer |
AllianzIM™ | ~0.0% | ~14.5% | 290 | 0.0% | ~3.8% Spread | N/A |
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Threshold
Uncapped Buffer
Range
All 23 Dual Direction funds are mid-period tonight, with nothing at the cap end and nothing pressing at the starting-level boundary — a flat distribution across the full annual-cycle roster. That uniformity is worth noting for a category explicitly built for directional uncertainty: every fund is still carrying its full structural range of outcomes, both the upside buffer and the inverse cushion on the downside. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
All 26 Specialty funds are mid-period tonight — no funds at Target/Extended Range, none approaching their caps. This group spans quarterly, 6-month, and annual cycles, with the 19 quarterly-reset funds meaning the mid-period window turns over faster here than in most categories, so position age can vary more than the headline count suggests. For informational purposes, not investment advice.
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accel Zone | QTOCQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~21.6% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~5.8% | ~9.0% | 167 | 0.0% | ~12.7% | ~30% | |
| Accel Zone | XTOCSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~7.7% | ~0.0% | 167 | — | ~16.8% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | QTAPQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~13.7% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~14.4% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XBAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~9.9% | ~9.0% | 349 | 0.0% | ~10.3% | ~35% | |
| Accel Zone | XTAPSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~12.2% | ~0.0% | 349 | — | ~12.8% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
| Status⇅ | Ticker | Provider | Rem. Cap⇅ |
Rem. Buf⇅ |
Days⇅ | DBB⇅ | Cap Yld⇅ |
Prob.⇅ | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near Cap | QTJLQQQ3x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.9% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.3% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XBJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~1.9% | ~9.0% | 75 | 0.0% | ~9.2% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDQQQQQ2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.2% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~15.6% | ~50% | |
| Near Cap | XDSQSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~3.0% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~14.6% | ~35% | |
| Near Cap | XTJLSPY2x Accelerated |
Innovator™ | ~2.4% | ~0.0% | 75 | — | ~11.5% | ~50% |
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Accelerated
Independent Research & Trademark Notices
Innovator™, First Trust™, and AllianzIM™ are trademarks of their respective owners. Outcome Radar is an independent research publication and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by these or any other fund providers.
This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of advisory services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s specific objectives and risk tolerance.
All probability estimates are model-based, hypothetical, and are not predictive of future results. Mathematical observations are based on current market data and modeled outcomes at expiration; they do not account for intra-period volatility or secondary market liquidity.
© 2026 Outcome Radar. All Rights Reserved.
Top 10 Widget (Dropdown Switcher) — A single box that holds three different “Top 10” views. Use the dropdown in the widget header to switch between them:
• Closest to Target Range (default) — The 10 ETFs trading closest to their ideal entry band. An ETF showing In Range is currently inside the optimal entry zone for its period type (annual, 6-month, or quarterly). Amber means within 0.25% of the band; red is further away. Ranked by absolute distance from the band.
• Asymmetry Ratio — Measures how much upside vs. downside a fund offers on a standardized ±10% index move from today. A ratio of 5x means the fund gains 5x more than it loses. Higher is better. Funds with fewer than 30 days remaining or non-standard structures are excluded.
• Top Cap Yield — The 10 ETFs with the highest annualized remaining cap. Cap Yield normalizes different time horizons so a fund with 60 days left can be compared to one with 300 days left. Grade reflects overall attractiveness.
Upcoming Resets — ETFs resetting within the next 8 days. At reset the fund starts a new outcome period with a fresh cap and buffer — an important decision point for holders.
Volume Traded (Treemap) — The 10 most actively traded ETFs from the prior session, sized by volume. Click any box to jump directly to that ETF’s row.
Implied Volatility Chart — A 1-year history of VIX (S&P 500), VXN (Nasdaq), and RVX (Russell 2000) implied volatility. Current values are calculated using options volatility models at the end of the day. Higher IV means higher reset caps ahead — useful context for timing new positions.
• Green chip — Exact match: same underlying index and same buffer %, freshly reset. Hover / tap for “Same buffer & index, just reset”.
• Amber chip with ∼ — Partial match: same underlying index, different buffer. Hover / tap shows which buffer the candidate has (e.g., “10% buf”).
• No chip — No suitable replacement exists in the current report.
Click the chip to jump directly to that suggested ETF’s row, so you can compare side-by-side before rolling.
Near Cap — ETFs nearing their maximum return. Upside is limited; each entry shows a Roll Option chip with a suggested replacement ETF.
Acceleration Zone — Leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) with multiplied upside. Position relative to the trigger threshold is key.
Dual Direction — ETFs that participate in both up and down index moves. Symmetry analysis matters here.
All Others — The rest of the ETF universe for that tab’s buffer type. Collapsed by default — expand to see every fund with basic metrics.